Infectious diseases in a changing climate. Steningevik, Märsta, Dec 10 th 2012,

Transkript

1 Infectious diseases in a changing climate Steningevik, Märsta, Dec 10 th 2012,

2 Climate change global warming, more extreme weather events,... What we already have done decides the climate change for at least another 30 years. The 2012 World bank report Turn down the heat why a 4 C warmer world must be avoided. The 2012 Doha disappointment

3 Precipitation change - annual amount in Europe 30 year scenario Up to: + 40% in the north - 40% in the south Also more irregular precipitation Source: Prudence project, EC

4 Observed temperature changes From 1975 to1998 (~23 years) Winter Summer SMHI,

5 Temperature variability Ultuna/Uppsala Yearly mean temperature , o C 0.8 o C 30 yrs Year (Per Nyman & Henrik Eckersten, SLU)

6 climate change adaption Vegetation period - extended (temp. > 5 o C) ~2085A (Fogelfors et al.,2008)

7 CC has a diffuse impact on the epidemiology of many infectious diseases Water borne diseases Vector borne diseases Parasitic diseases Many non-climatic aspects also affect the epidemiology

8 Risk assesment of Animal Infectious Diseases in Sweden. Influence of CC respective consequence for animal health Mycket starkt samband Starkt samband Medelstarkt samband Svagt samband Mycket svagt samband Inf=infection, sjd = disease From the Climate vulerability Assesment, Appendix of Health effects for humans and animals. SOU 2007:60, Appendix B 34, Lindgren, Albihn, Andersson Klimatkoppling i Sverige 5 BORRELIAINF:- fästing 4 3 MJÄLTBRAND- bete/ inandning/ foder; 2dödlig akut febersjd 1 ALGTOXIN-vatten ANAPLASMOSfästing; febersjd CRYPTOSPORIDIUM- INF. - mat/vatten; diarrésjd FODERBOTULISMandningsförlamning LEPTOSPIRAINF. gnagare; febersjd HARPEST- mygga; dödlig sjd, bölder GIARDIAINF.- mat/vatten/kontakt smitta; diarrésjd LISTERIAINF.- jord/bete; missfall, symtom fr centrala nervsystemet FÅGELINFLUENSA kontakt smitta; dödlig febersjd STELKRAMP jord; dödlig sårinfektion BABESIOS-fästing; malarialiknande sjd CAMPYLOBACTER- INF. mat/vatten; diarrésjd VTEC- mat/vatten/bete; ger smittbärare SALMONELLAINF.- mat/vatten; ger smittbärare FRASBRAND bete; akut dödlig febersjd BLUETONGUE svidknott; dödlig sjd VISCERAL LEISHMANIASIS*- mygga; febersjd WEST NILE FEBER*- mygga; febersjd, neurlogiska symtom PARATUBERKULOSbetesmark/gödsel; dödlig dödlig hjärninflammation EEE/WEE/VEE*- mygga; tarmsjd RIFT VALLEY NÖTKREATURSTBC- FEBER*- mygga/ inandning/bete; dödlig luftburen; hemorragisk lungsjd feber USUTU VIRUS- mygga; AFRIKANSK inre organ förstörs, död HÄSTPEST* svidknott; dödlig febersjd Konsekvens för hälsoläget i Sverige Mycket begränsade Risk vid klimatförändring: Mycket Hög Risk Hög Risk Medelhög Risk Låg Risk Mycket Låg Risk Begränsade Allvarliga Mycket allvarliga Katastrofala * Stark klimatkoppling utomlands

9 What will follow CC?

10 Adaptation action plans

11 Foto C. Fugelsang Globalisation - the most important way for spread of diseases

12 The common tick - Ixodes ricinus In Sweden the common tick has changed its distribution to higher latitudes a higher population density of ticks is experienced. Vector for e.g. Borreliosis/Lyme disease Babesiosis Anaplasmosis Tick-borne encephalitis/tbe Rickettsiosis

13 Vector control efforts When high vector population density New vector species has been identified Insecticides/biocides short duration of effect Environmental control - oviposition sites, - spread of sterile males Preventive advice - public education, mosquito traps, nets,

14 Prediction and foresight of VBD threats Risk identification of VBD by modeling the potential risk in a new area Transmission Establishment, occasional or permanent Good models need good data Temperature, humidity, wind, Fieldwork, vectors Ecosystem dynamics Surveillance of pathogens Multidisciplinary efforts is needed! As better the knowledge is of the present situation as better predictions

15 Action plans for VBD threats Handling of the identified risk Early actions are essential for successful disease control and eradication vector control programs intensified surveillance of diseases of interest (sera, milk, etc) and of vectors vaccination programs, temporal indoor keeping of animals Risk communication! Educate and inform relevant organizations and people

16 Conclusions Complex and dynamic interaction between CC, ecosystems, vectors, pathogens, animals and humans Changes are awaited in the geographical distribution, seasonality and prevalence of VBD For successful risk identification, handling and communication - cooperation between nations and disciplines are needed Knowledge from other regions must be adapted to local conditions Necessary to pool cross-border efforts to control VBD