Kjell Aleklett. NOG, Nätverket Olja & Gas ÅF:s huvudkontor, Stockholm, 9 september, 2013

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1 1 NOG, Nätverket Olja & Gas ÅF:s huvudkontor, Stockholm, 9 september, 2013 Professor in Global Energy Systems President of ASPO International Uppsala University, Sweden Kjell.aleklett@geo.uu.se Blog: aleklett.wordpress.com Department of Earth Sciences

2 Globala energiresurser E = m c 2 Förnybar energi Politiskt korrekt Bioenergi, sol vind och vatten (geotermis energi) Global andel ~15% Fossilabränslen och aska från en supernova Politiskt ej korrekt Kol, olja och Naturgas uran Global andel ~ 85%

3 Tillgängliga energikällor Uran och Torium för kärnkraft Fossila bränslen; kol, olja och naturgas Biomassa: Skogsråvara, energiskog, rester från jordbruket Torv Vattenkraft Väderrelatera energi: Sol-, vind- och vågenergi Avfall Värme från luft, vatten och mark

4 Det globala energisystemet 4 * Transformation of fossil fuels from primary energy into a form that can be used in the final consuming sectors.

5 Fossil fuel and other energies

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8 8 Sedan 1970 fram till 2010 har transportsektorns energibehov ökat med 74%. Det motsvarar en årlig ökning med 1.4% Under samma tid har Sveriges tillväxt varit ungefär 2% per år. Slutsats: Ingen tillväxt utan ökade transporter

9 What are important for today s students? Students in Energy Systems at Uppsala University, Sweden

10 What are important for today s students? Students in Energy Systems at Uppsala University, Sweden Food three times per day Shelter To make money Social relations Climate Security

11 11 Our society needs oil!!!

12 Our Daily Barrel We have a liquids problem

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14 Deferent types of hydrocarbons listed as oil 14

15 What is oil? Conventional oil Crude oil. Oil produced as shales oil. Unconventional oil Bitumen and extra heavy oil from Canada s oil sands. Extra heavy oil from Venezuela s Orinoco belt. Oil produced from oil shales (kerogen shales) Conversion into oil Oil produced from coal by CTL methods (coal-to-liquids) Oil produced from natural gas by GTL methods (gas-toliquids)

16 Reserves? 16

17 17 World Oil Supply in 2010 according to International Energy Agency Total liquids Ethanol Processing gains 87.3 million barrels per day 1.8 million barrels per day 2.3 million barrels per day Total oil 83.2 million barrels per day IEA: 82.2 Mb/d 82.8 Mb/d 81.3 Mb/d 83.2 Mb/d BP: 81.5 Mb/d 82.0 Mb/d 80.3 Mb/d 82.1 Mb/d

18 When was oil produced?

19 Sediment deposit for oil and gas

20 There must be places where we can find more oil endowment - USGS

21 Oil and natural gas are produced in petroleum systems

22 Oil and Gas in the North Sea

23 Oil Production in the North Sea 23

24 ASPO The Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas Med Peak Oil avses den tidpunkt då produktionen av olja i ett område eller globalt inte längre kan öka utan går över till en platå eller minskar. Peak Oil betyder inte att oljan tar slut men att ökningen av produktionen tar slut på grund av att produktionen sinar. "The term Peak Oil refers the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration, recognizing that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion."

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27 World primary demand by scenario 27

28 Peak Oil

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30 New Policies Scenario WEO Prediction for 2030 WEO Mb/d, WEO Mb/d WEO Mb/d, WEO Mb/d

31 Statoil and Peak Oil 31

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33 World Energy Outlook 2008-decline

34 Breakeven of 360 non-producing & recent onstream oilfields from Goldman Sachs 34

35 The Elephants The Giant oilfields

36 Number and size of oilfields

37 Jack 2 Kebnekaise and Mount Everest

38 Map of oil regions in the Arctic's

39 Estimated oil north of the Arctic Circle Prudhoe Bay

40 Oljeproduktion i polarområdet 40

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42 US scenario, not forcast 42

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46 The USA oil production 46

47 Bakken 12-month Cumulative Production Map Map shows wells with first production in 2006 or later. Green areas indicate break-even or greater production volumes Most production on the map is from the Three Forks reservoir. Indicates that production is from discreet fields. Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. ASPO USA 2012 Conference Kjell Slide Aleklett 47

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50 Bakken Shale Annual Base Replacement Bakken Shale Static Decline Profile Oil Production Number of Wells 350, , Barrles of Oil Per Day 250, , , , Number of Wells 50, Jun-00 Oct-00 Feb-01 Jun-01 Oct-01 Feb-02 Jun-02 Oct-02 Feb-03 Jun-03 Oct-03 Feb-04 Jun-04 Oct-04 Feb-05 Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct % annual decline rate. Must replace 182,000 bo/d each year to maintain supply. That means approximately 1,488 new producing wells/year at a cost of ~ $17 billion new producing wells were added in last 12 months ($13 billion). Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Houston SIPES Continuing Education Seminar Data from DI Kjell Slide Aleklett 50

51 Flaring 51

52 Production of crude oil

53 Giant oilfields in Saudi Arabia

54 54 The laws of physics are stronger then the laws of economy

55 Oil (tar) sand production 55

56 Oil sand production

57 Crash Program Production from Canadian Oil Sands, (Energy Policy, 2007) Thousand Bbls Per Day Year Total Mining, Crash Program Total In Situ, Crash Program Bengt Söderbergh, Fredrik Robelius, Energy Policy 35 (2007)

58 5 Mb/d - The size of the tap in Data by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers.

59 The two new taps from Alberta 59

60 Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline 60

61 The Yinka Dene Alliance Includes 6 First Nations (Nadleh Whut'en, Nak'azdli, Takla Lake, Saik'uz, and Wet'suwet'en) in northern 1 BC who have banned the Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipelines from their territories. 61

62 The US tap The Keystone pipelines 62

63 63 Capacity 2025: 2.4 Mb/d

64 Oronoco oilfield

65 New Policies Scenario WEO Prediction of NGL, Unconventional and Tight oil 2011: 18 Mb/d 2035: 34 Mb/d (+16 Mb/d)

66 New future unconventional oil production

67 Predicted demand from the IEA scenarios 67

68 The Uppsala scenarios and production according to BP : Thesis by Fredrik Robelius and data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy

69 69

70 Energy and Economic Growth

71 Before the oil age, Sweden 1946 When I was born in 1945, none of the four small farms in my little Swedish village used oil for anything. Ten years later, the oil age had arrived: we had replaced coal with oil for heating, my father had bought a motorcycle, and tractors were seen in the fields.

72 Energy in Sweden during 100 years TWh A factor of five Nuclear Oil and gas Hydro 0 Coal Bio From 1945 to 1970, Sweden increased its use of energy by a factor of five, or nearly 7 percent per year for 25 years. This journey into the oil age transformed Sweden from a rather poor country into the third wealthiest country (per capita) in the world. Ninety percent of the energy increase came from oil. Cheap oil made Sweden rich.

73 GDP per capita

74 Business as Usual and Oil Demand World Energy Outlook 2008,

75 Business as Usual and Oil Demand

76 Exponentiell tillväxt och Globen i Stockholm 55 m liter 30 m liter 110 m En vattendroppe har en diameter mellan 2 och 4 millimeter och det motsvarar en kubikmeter. Det betyder att en liter vatten har droppar. Exempel på exponentiell tillväxt: Minut 1 1 droppe, minut 2 2 droppar, minut 3 4 droppar, minut 4 8 droppar, minut 5 16 droppar osv. När är en hink som är 11 liter full? När måste du lämna läktaren som är 30 meter upp i Globen? När är Globen helt vattenfylld?

77 Exponentiell tillväxt och Globen i Stockholm 55 m liter 30 m liter 110 m En vattendroppe har en diameter mellan 2 och 4 millimeter och det motsvarar en kubikmeter. Det betyder att en liter vatten har droppar. Exempel på exponentiell tillväxt: Minut 1 1 droppe, minut 2 2 droppar, minut 3 4 droppar, minut 4 8 droppar, minut 5 16 droppar osv. När är en hink som är 11 liter full? Svar: 41 minuter När måste du lämna läktaren som är 30 meter upp i Globen? Svar: 55 minuter När är Globen helt vattenfylld? Svar: 57 minuter

78 Exponentiell tillväxt och Globen i Stockholm 55 m liter 30 m liter 110 m

79 79 Fördubblingstakt Antal år ln(2) x till = = fördubbling ökningstakt(%) x % Exempel: Ökning med 14 % Antal år = 69/14 = 5 år År: Antal: Per 5 år:

80 IEA prediction for 2030 WEO Mb/d WEO Mb/d WEO Mb/d WEO Mb/d WEO ? Mb/d

81 Daqing - China Petroleum has a compact relationship with a countries political, economical and military strength.

82 Chokepoints 82

83 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2013 in Davos 83 Christine Lagarde, IMF, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Megatrends shaping our future: Increasing vulnerability from resource scarcity and climate change, with the potential for major social and economic disruption. Peak Oil

84 Future GDP and Peak Oil 84 Michael Kümhof

85 April Peak Oil conference in Doha, Qatar: The Dictator s Survival Probability 85

86 Time is running out

87 Oil fields in Iraq

88 Oil fields in Iraq Let us squeeze in 100 Gb of oil into one bottle of Champagne.

89 We are drinking oil! If 100 Gb of oil is squeezed into one bottle of Champagne we have consumed 11 bottles.

90 The global reserve of crude oil is 8 (9) bottles of Champagne

91 Where to find the crude oil or the 8 bottles of Champagne?

92 The global consumption per year is 30 billion barrels of oil One bottle of Champagne is equal to the consumption in three years and four months.

93 The USA is addicted to oil President Bush, Capitol Hill, 2006: We have a serious problem. America is addicted to oil From the beginning the nature had put two bottles of crude oil in the ground in USA. They are just now sipping on the last glass.

94 The global reserve of crude oil is 8 bottles of Champagne We will discover two more bottles of Champagne We also have three or four more bottles sparkling wine in Canada and Venezuela and shale oil in the USA.

95 The global reserve of crude oil is 8 bottles of Champagne We have in total 11 bottles (8+3) to empty and 3 more to find, in total 14 bottles. If it takes 3 1/3 years to empty one bottle everyone should be aware of that the party is over and that we need to sobering up! + +

96 96 World Oil May 2012 This book should be required reading for anyone seriously interested in the future world energy market and economy, especially politicians and policymakers.