a great change in our stewardship of the Earth and the life on it is required, if vast human misery is to be avoided.

Transkript

1

2 a great change in our stewardship of the Earth and the life on it is required, if vast human misery is to be avoided.

3

4 Exiting the Safe Operating Zone Planetary management will require considerable skill Crisis of Nature

5 Crisis of goverment too Trump Brexit Erdogan, Putin, Modi, Duterte

6 Thomas Sterner Chaire Développement durable - Environnement, énergie et société

7 Thomas Sterner Chaire Développement durable - Environnement, énergie et société

8 2 simultanious crises: a Coincidence?

9 2 simultaneous crises: a Coincidence?

10 Mer plast än fisk i havet

11 COP 23 {21 25}

12 COP 23 {21 25} 1, Parisavtalets regelbok: 2.Talanoa: 3.Ambitionsnivå i klimatarbetet före 2020: 4.Handlingsplan för jämställdhet: 5.Plattform för ursprungsbefolkningar: 6.Långsiktig finansiering: 7.Jordbruk:

13 A huge solar installation in Les Mees, in the department of Alpes-de-Haute-Provence. France is predicted to miss both renewable and energy efficiency targets. Photograph: Jean- Paul Pelissier/Reuters

14 Share of Wind in Denmark

15

16 Indias largest solar farm Kamuthi

17 Batteries, cars, efficiency

18 But still quite small

19 Technical progress everywhere

20

21

22

23 Happy if oil prices are low?

24 Fossil prices low BAD because: Stop renewables research and deployment Stop Efficiency investments Encourage waste, Stop insulating houses Encourage fertilizers, aluminium, gasguzzlers, sprawl Frighten solar investors So oil price fall means more to ALCOA than Paris

25 Fossil prices low good because: Keep oil and gas in the ground Dont build Xcel pipeline Dont develop heavy tarsands, Stop fracking and drilling Frighten investors with stranded assets

26 What do we need or hope for for the climate?

27 What do we need or hope for for the climate? Low producer prices AND High consumer prices TAX

28 Climate treaty needed...

29 Price of a scarce resource

30

31

32

33 Oil prices, and Various Climate policies

34 Tough climate policies?

35 CO2 prices

36 CO2 prices

37 CO2 prices SWEDISH CARBON TAX

38 Tons CO2 / $ GDP 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 C/Y World C/Y US C/Y OECD C/Y UK C/Y Denmark C/Y Norway C/Y Sweden

39 CO2 per GDP indices C/Y World C/Y Norway C/Y OECD C/Y US C/Y Denmark C/Y UK C/Y Sweden

40 CO2 prices EU GAS TAX

41 Price of gasoline Gasoline per capita Petrol prices Consumption/cap ITALY UK AUSTRALIA CANADA USA

42 Transport Fuel Use in OECD Gtons fuel (and ~C*(12/14)) Real UK prices US prices Fuel use 1,13 0,72 1,47-36% +30%

43 Paris: Succé pour la diplomatie francaise

44 Paris COP 21? RADICAL GOALS <2 C even 1,5 BUT No Carbon Price RELIANCE ON INDCS ---sufficiently binding?

45 INDC INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION

46 COP 21 : 200 économistes pour un prix du C Tirole, Nordhaus, Weitzman All economists Would be effective When to deliver message, how to get there

47 Varför tjatar ekonomer om pris på CO2?

48 HETEROGENEOUS ABATEMENT COSTS MBI 2 polluters 20 t each. Total to be cut in ½. MC 1 = a 1 and MC 2 = 4a 2 1. Equal abatement of 10 units each costs 250$ (½ 10*10 + ½ 10*40) 2. Equal MC due to trading means firm one will sell 6 rights to firm 2. Firm 1 abates 16 and firm 2 abates 4. Cost is 160 $ (saving 36%) (½ 16*16 + ½ 4*16) 3. This can also be achieved by a tax of 16 Thomas Sterner Policy Instruments

49 Cost savings due to equal MC Equal abatement Efficient abatement Thomas Sterner Policy Instruments

50 Heterogeneous MC (2) Heterogeneity Saving by MBI % 2 ~11% 4 36% When are costs heterogeneous?? If Abatement takes time If firms with different scale or different business emit same pollutant 9 64% 99 ~96% Thomas Sterner Masters CTH 05 03

51

52

53

54 Koldioxidskatt, klimatbistånd och att Sverige skalar upp sina inköp och annullering av utsläppsrätter är de allra viktigaste åtgärderna. Skulle man slopa subventioner till fossila bränslen och genomföra en global koldioxidskatt så skulle klimatproblemet vara löst,

55 Renewable subsidies still growing

56

57

58 Changing forces of Lobbyism In Waxman Markey, fossil-fuel interests outspent environmental interests by 7-to-1 Californian environmental interests outspent fossil fuel interests by 3-to-1 in battling Proposition 23.

59

60

61

62 Budget Omfattande sponsorskap Adlebertska 1 M Sida, AFD, Microsoft, China CAERE Handelshögskolefonder.. UGOT, FRAM, BECC, Mistra Carbon Exit, EFD, CeCar, mfl

63 LOC Anne, Åsa, Thomas, Frida, Fredrik, Gunnar, Håkan, Jessica, Daniel, Carolyn Sverker Jagers, Anna Nordén,...FRT

64 Extras 2-3 förkonferenser. 2 För-kurser WEC