Vindkraft i kallt klimat - internationell utblick och vidare insikter

Vindkraft i kallt klimat - internationell utblick och vidare insikter Göran Ronsten WindREN

O2 s wind pilot project Large-scale, costeffective wind energy development in icing climates Göran Ronsten, O2 2008-2015 8 MEuro Vindkraft i kallt Large-scale, klimat - internationell cost-effective utblick wind och energy vidare development insikter Göran in icing Ronsten, climates WindREN Göran Ronsten, Framtidens O2 Vindkraft, NCAR/UCAR Power 2013-08-20, Väst. 20131009-10, Boulder Göteborg

Technology development of wind energy in cold climates requires market studies Now available in BTM s WMU 2012 (Mar 2013)

Can wind make a significant contribution? China 2012: 60 GW of wind = All electricity from the country s 17 nuclear power plants China 2013: 75 GW of wind = 150 TWh = Sweden s electriciy consumtion

Cold Climate issues are quite relevant in Sweden Installerad effekt per elområde januari 2017, utifrån basscenario MW 2500,0 2250,0 2000,0 1750,0 1500,0 1250,0 1000,0 750,0 500,0 250,0 0,0 Cold Climate SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4 Status per 2013-06-30 Under tillståndsprövning Med alla tillstånd Under byggnation I drift

An example of decrease in annual moving average forecast error The forecast error is defined per h as: abs(prod-for)/prod Increase in uncertainty during winter periods? Winter - prices are generally higher!!!

Courtesy of Sue Haupt, 2013-09-25 Director, Weather Systems and Assessment Program, NCAR

Courtesy of Sue Haupt, 2013-09-25 Director, Weather Systems and Assessment Program, NCAR

Pricing in power systems: Sweden Hydro + Nuclear + wind (90%) Large part of the rest is CHP (industrial and distr. heat) Price is set by the water value = the expected marginal cost in the future to which the water could be stored. Price is not set in Sweden! Courtesy of Lennart Söder, KTH

Sweden Does the cost of balancing wind boil down to a change in Water Value? Wind receives green certificates. Consequently, wind farm owners want to produce even if electricity prices are negative. Lennart Söder, KTH 2013-09-20 The wind power in the system will change the water values, but unfortunately I do not have slides or papers which reflect these changes. Yelena Vardanyan, PhD student Electricity Market analysis, KTH 2013-09-25 Tror ni att vindkraft ökar eller minskar vattenvärdet? Fredrik Carlsson (Vattenfall) söker svaret på denna fråga

International activities to assess the balancing cost We are studying these issues as a part of the Icewind project for the four Nordic countries in Nordpool spot power market: Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland. First we are looking at the variability of the wind and the load, country by country and for all; then at the forecasting done in the four countries and the accuracy and uncertainty of the forecasting. Lastly we will try to assess the impact of icing on forecast errors. At this point of time we are not sure we will be able to isolate this issue on a power market level. In any case the answer is approximately one year away. So far we have only looked at the cost of balancing for Finland and found a level of 1-1.4 EURO/MWh. Niels-Erik Clausen, Senior Advisor, Head of Study Board, DTU Wind Energy In our new project IcedBlades we have the target to identify short term uncertainties. So it connects directly to the first steps from the results of 2008. There will be a EWEA workshop on forecasting in Decmeber. I am not sure if they are aware of the problems that we recognize for cc sites. Details here: http://www.ewea.org/events/workshops/wind-power-forecasting/ Michael Durstewitz, Fraunhofer IWES 26 European countries participate in COST 1002, Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies (but not Sweden) have a look at our website, in particular our Current State report (to be officially published in a couple of months) as well as the benchmark exercise we are presently involved in. By the way, we will submit tomorrow a new COST Action... May be the SMHI will find it interesting this time... Dr. Alain Heimo, Meteotest

Köpa/sälja vindkraftverk utan avisningssystem i nedisningsdrabbade områden? Resursutnyttjande Är vi fullt upptagna med att göra samma sak idag som igår? Köpa/sälja vindkraftverk utan avisningssystem i nedisningsdrabbade områden? Öken Tänk efter! Bättre resultat! Kundnöjdhet

What we could learn at Winterwind 2013 Conclusions 2 health and safety, noise de- and antiicing production losses, uncertainties AEP increased loads education ice climatology and forecasting gap between icemaps and turbine behaviour test centers and extreme climate testing experiences, O&M, transport, installation, foundations Conference Reflections Jos Beurskens & Sven-Erik Thor Not shown here (added by Ronsten)

Health and safety, noise, example 1 THE APPLICATIONS OF ICE THROW MODELLING TO RISK ASSESSMENT AND PLANNING IN COLD CLIMATES DR GAIL HUTTON CSTAT CSCI SENIOR STATISTICAL ANALYST, RES GROUP 13 FEBRUARY 2013 1 CONCLUSIONS Development of the ice throw simulation model allows us to quantify risk And address public safety/infrastructure/planning issues with more confidence Estimates of public safety risk are very small By comparison with the 1.5(D+H) rule of thumb for planning the RES ice throw model gives shorter throw distances Model validation by on-site observation gives promising results Will continue to monitor ice throw this Winter 4. Conclusions 9

Health and safety, noise, example 2 SEU Operation and Maintenance experiences of wind turbines in Cold Climate Safe Access to the Machine

Health and safety, noise, example 3 Sjisjka Wind Farm Unique solutions Initial work, April 2011, roads, in-transport of material, electricity grid. Winter 11/12, prefabricated concrete foundations.

www.iag.uni-stuttgart.de IAG Institute of Aerodynamics and Gas Dynamics Health and safety, noise, example RNOISE Results +10 db +1.5 db www.iag.uni-stuttgart.de IAG Institute of Aerodynamics and Gas Dynamics Photo: VTT Numerical Investigation on the Noise Generation of Iced Wind Turbines R. Hann, A. Wolf, D. Bekiropoulos, T. Lutz, E. Krämer IAG Institute of Aerodynamics and Gas Dynamics PIANO Results www.iag.uni-stuttgart.de Leading-edge (LE) noise can be neglected!

De- and anti-icing (modelling & tests) at VTT

De- and anti-icing - WT manufacturers announces benefits TOTAL PRODUCTION Korpfjället 20 23 jan 2012 Power production in icy conditions 3 days of production with de-icing Power yield [MWh] 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 Avg=1380 MWh Avg=1940 MWh Anti-Icing Reference 0 T 4 T 6 T 7 T 1 T 3 T 5 T 11 T 12 T 16 Turbine On average 560 MWh higher production with Anti- Icing Option compared to reference turbines from CW51-CW10 Operating experiences with anti-icing systems in Nordex turbines, Winterwind 2013, Dr. Astrid Löwe 13 De-icing 37 MWh 26 MWh De-icing 36 hours 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Jan Siemens AG All rights reserved. Page 14 TI 2012 E W TI INNO

De- and anti-icing - WT manufacturers info not to be published Concepts & challenges to design and operate wind turbines in cold climates Lea Kirsch REpower Systems Winterwind 2013, Östersund Status test and results cold climate technology February 2013 Søren Plagborg, VP-Turbines and Service Solutions What does a Vestas presentation without Vestas logotype imply? However, Vestas new deicing system to be announced at Vind 2013!

Severe Estimated de-icing capability (by Ronsten) Medium Light icing conditions? Market share

Production losses, uncertainties in Annual Energy Production (AEP), example Potential savings at Uljabuouda with a anti-icing system Assumption 100% availability for both turbine and anti-icing system. Ice related production losses Savings with use of anti-icing technology for wind turbine blades in cold climate Hans Gedda, H Gedda Consulting AB Helena Hedblom, Fortum AB Daniel Eriksson, Skellefteå Kraft AB Valid only for this evaluation period. Savings are expressed in SEK/EUR using daily spot price at Nord Pool and assuming a certificate price of 180 SEK/MWh ~ 20EUR/MWh The intervals cover the different turbine positions in the wind farm 5,0-7,7 55,5-80,5 Conclusions (2011-2012) Some icing events have been observed when the AIS has been inactive. Some periods without icing have been observed when the AIS has been active. The conclusion is that there is room for improvement of the control algorithms. A clear connection between icing and excessive noise can be found. Savings with use of properly working AIS system is approximately 1 000 [MWh]/turbine for Uljabuouda and 800 [MWh] for Jokkmokksliden/Storliden respectively

Production losses, uncertainties in Annual Energy Production (AEP), example 1 Icing climate Yearly (May 1 st April 30 th ) deviations from 30-year mean There is a substantial yearly variation in production and production losses. Production losses in individual years can be twice as large as the long term mean. Production index Production loss index Estimation of Production Losses Due to Icing Development of methods for site assessment and forecasting Magnus Baltscheffsky, Stefan Söderberg WeatherTech Scandinavia AB Results WeatherTech Monthly power losses (%) Obs Model YYYYMM 3 0 201009 15 19 201012 11 12 201101 34 34 201102 2 7 201103 3 2 201104 3 0 201109 1 0 201110 11 6 201111 30 24 201112 43 44 201201 15 12 201202 3 5 201203

Production losses, uncertainties in Annual Energy Production (AEP), example 2 Summary Operating strategies during icing: 1. Continue power production with iced blades 2. Stop the turbine Standard deviation, no ice: 8.6 % Standard deviation, production with iced blades: 11.6 % Standard deviation, production stop during icing: 14.7 % On the uncertainty in the AEP estimates for wind farms in cold climate Winterwind, Östersund, 12.02.2013 Øyvind Byrkjedal Kjeller Vindteknikk oyvind.byrkjedal@vindteknikk.no KVT wind index 2010 and 2011 Continue power production with iced blades: Reduced power curve during icing Red curve Estimated production loss: 9 % Stop the turbine: When ice is detected to influence the power production Blue curve Estimated production loss: 17 %

Increased loads Preliminary results from project IcedBlades: Input to new IEC 61400-1 ed4 WinterWind 2013 Conference, Östersund, Sweden Ville Lehtomäki¹, Kai Freudenreich², Michael Steininger² Pic: Bonus 600kW, Olos fjäll, Finland ¹VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland ²Germanischer Lloyd Renewables Certification, Hamburg, Germany Motivation Currently 60 GW of wind energy in cold and icing climate (CIC) [3] Global wind energy in CIC 3 x global offshore! [5] NREL estimate: 50% of US wind fleet in CIC by 2030 [4] Problem of production losses caused by iced blades well known. BUT no clear idea, how turbine lifetime is affected by iced blades. Thesis: Are premature failure of main components e.g. gearboxes & towers resulting to hidden financial penalties BIGGER than production losses? ULTIMATE GOAL: Increase knowledge & improve wind energy reliability in CIC. Ice Induced Vibration Measurements 4 On MW scale wind turbines Presented by: Ville Lehtomäki, VTT Matthew Wadham-Gagnon, TCE WinterWind 2013 Long-time operation with iced up blades not considered in present IEC design standard 2013-02-12

Icing climatology example 1 Statistical downscaling: 4) Number of icing hours interpolate from 9 km resolution to 1 km resolution grid. WeatherTech Creating an icing climatology using downscaling techniques Results from Vindforsk project V-313 WeatherTech Downscaled to 1 km resolution Modelled at 1 km resolution Modelled at 9 km resolution Hans Bergström and Petra Thorsson, Uppsala universitet Esbjörn Olsson and Per Undén, SMHI Stefan Söderberg, Magnus Baltscheffsky, Weathertech Scandinavia Hans Bergström Department of Earth Sciences 1 Winterwind 2013 Statistical downscaling: 4) Interpolate 9 km resolution liquid water content (LWC) data to the 1 km resolution grid. Alternative: Use 9 km temperature and specific humidity. Assume specific humidity is preserved: WeatherTech Lift temperature from 9 km terrain height to 1 km height Gives new temperatures at corrected height Determine specific humidity at saturation If super-saturated, increase LWC until 100 % rel.humidity Use Makkonen s equation to estimate icing If ice accretion > 10 g/h count as icing hour Hans Bergström Department of Earth Sciences 17 Winterwind 2013 Winterwind 2013 Hans Bergström Department of Earth Sciences 16

Icing climatology example 2 Height adjustment Height adjustment routine: Forced lifting of the air masses from the coarse smoothed terrain to the height in the terrain model Icing atlas with 50 m x 50 m resolution. WRF model: 1 km x 1km resolution WRF model: With height adjustment Winterwind, Östersund, 12.02.2013 Icing map of Sweden Øyvind Byrkjedal Kjeller Vindteknikk oyvind.byrkjedal@vindteknikk.no Long term correction WRF simulations with high resolution (1km) is only carried out for two winters (2009/2010 and 2010/2011) The variability in icing is large from one year to the next. A long term correction has been applied using icing data from a 4 km x 4 km simulation 9 10

Test centers and extreme climate testing Offshore Wind Infrastructure Application Lab (OWI-Lab) The use of a large climate chamber for extreme temperature testing & turbine component validation Winterwind 2013 Pieter Jan Jordaens: pieterjan.jordaens@sirris.be Extreme climate testing facility for components in Belgium

Test centers and extreme climate testing, example 1 Content Introduction to TechnoCentre éolien (TCE) and its infrastructures What is the status so far? Concluding remarks Offshore Wind Infrastructure Application Lab (OWI-Lab) The use of a large climate chamber for extreme temperature testing & turbine component validation Winterwind 2013 Pieter Jan Jordaens: pieterjan.jordaens@sirris.be Test sites : two «typical» models Rent-a-space Provide testing infrastructure to OEMs Certification of wind turbines Temporary projects (36-60 months) 13 Buy a wind turbine Wind turbine is the testing infrastructure Technological showcase and qualification of sub-suppliers Focus on O&M Long term projects (15-20 years) 8

Test centers and extreme climate testing, example 2 Input&data&for&& localization&analysis& Ice$hours$& Average&wind&speed& Extreme&wind&speeds& Climate Progress)report) COLD%CLIMATE%TEST%CENTER%IN% SWEDEN%% NEW%KNOWLEDGE%AND%EXPERINCES%TROUGH%% TEST,%VALIDATION%AND%RESEARCH%% IN%FULL%SCALE%COLD%CLIMATE%CONDITIONS% % Winterwind)2013.02.13) Stefan)Ivarsson) Scandinavian)Wind)AB) & National&parks&etc.& Military&restrictions&&&&&&&&&&&& Flight&restrictions& & Interests Ice$versus$infrastructure$$ is$a$challenge$ Distance&to&town&& Distance&to&road& Distance&to&airport& Distance&to&grid&& Infrastrukture 10

Wind pilot projects: 70 M over 10 years until 2013 From offshore to cold climate and forests Swedish Wind Power Technology Center (SWPTC) Cold Climate node at Luleå Technical University (LTU) Focusing on structure dynamics and testing Working on establishing a cold climate test site for verification of WT, sensors and equipment 2013, http://www.chalmers.se/ee/swptc-en/research

Academic Research Program run by the Swedish Energy Agency 2013-2016 - k$ 4 850 National program international cooperation is encouraged! (1$ = SEK 6,6) k$ Vibrations and loads of wind turbines exposed to ice load 1 135 Ice detection for smart de-icing of wind turbines 867 Imaging method for determining the liquid water content and MVD of air 674 Patrik Jonsson, Mid Sweden University & SAAB Combitech Modeling of ice accretion and production losses 666 Hans Bergström, Uppsala University Active de-icing of wind turbine blades with advanced coatings 591 Wind turbines in cold climates: Fluid Mechanics, ice and terrain effects 474 Johan Revstedt, Lund University Sound Effects by icing of wind turbines Long-term measurements of sound for verification 138 Repair and development of anti-icing system for wind turbine blades 102 ICETHROWER - mapping and risk analysis tools 97 Evaluation of ice detector for wind energy applications 19 Total allocated so far 4 763 For English, please apply Google Translate on the text in http://www.energimyndigheten.se/global/press/pressmeddelanden/beviljade%20projekt%20inom%20forskningsprogrammet.pdf

Vindforsk is a Utility Based Research Program run by Elforsk 2009-2012, continues 2013-2016 National program international cooperation is encouraged! Reports are available at http://vindforsk.se/ For english please use http://translate.google.se/translate?sl=sv&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=sv&ie=utf- 8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fvindforsk.se%2F Most interesting cold climate related report for meteorologists Elforsk report Copyright 13:10, Wind power into cold climates, ice mapping methods, Hans Bergström, Esbjörn Olsson, Stefan Söderberg, Petra Thorsson, Per Undén http://www.elforsk.se/global/vindforsk/rapporter%20vfiii/13_10_windpower_cold_climate.p df (16 MB)

Winterwind conference (SE), a follow up of Boreas (FI, 1992-2005) Arranged by The Swedish Wind Power Association, http://winterwind.se/ Presentations 2013 (500) http://windren.se/ww2013/ 2012 (400) http://winterwind.se/2012/download-presentations/ http://www.winterwind.se/2012/download/ 2011 (300) http://winterwind.se/2011/programme.html http://windren.se/ww2011/ 2010 (175) http://winterwind.se/2010/?q=node/9 http://winterwind.se/2010/presentation/ 2008 (165) http://www.winterwind.se/2008/?choice=proceedings http://www.winterwind.se/2008/presentationer/ 2008 (150) http://cvi.se/index.php?page=vintervind-2008 Welcome to Winterwind 2014 Feb 11-12 in Sundsvall!

Thank you!