Spring // 2013 Swan Boats Public Garden Inside...»» Converse and Goodwin Procter extend a string of quarters containing major build-to-suit announcements.»» Forty-two percent more properties gained than lost occupancy in the quarter.»» East Cambridge, Back Bay, Framingham and the Seaport District availability is heavily concentrated at few locations.»» Waltham vacancy has dropped to 16.2 percent from 26.7 percent since 2010.»» Newly conceived infill projects in the Back Bay and East Cambridge may be the market s newest construction proposals. The Seaport Magic in Numbers // Page 7 *Unless otherwise noted, all data is as of or for the quarter ended March 31, 2013 and is Richards Barry Joyce & Partners data.
Economy & Real Estate STOCK MARKET // Equity Indicators EMPLOYMENT // US Bureau of Labor Statistics ABSORPTION & VACANCY // Greater Boston 1.15 Relative Performance December 31, 2012 = 1.00 9 Unemployment rate 25 sf in millions 2.0 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 8 7 6 5 4 3 National unemployment rate Boston MSA unemployment rate 20 15 10 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 (0.5) 0.90 2 1 5 (1.0) (1.5) 0.85 Apr May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar 0 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec 0 (2.0) Index Value 1 Qtr 4 Qtr Indicator Value 2 Qtr 4 Qtr 14.5 S&P 500 1,558 +9 +10 Boston MSA Employed 1,459-1.1 +1.2 Quarterly -105,000 sf Morgan Stanley Hi Tech Ix 682 +8 +2 Boston MSA Unenemployed 5.4 0-0.1 Last Twelve Months 1.6 Million sf Record stock market performance combined with robust area employment expectations provided a backdrop for a buoyant Greater Boston office real estate market, where 42 percent more buildings experienced growing rent rolls than shrinkage in the first quarter of 2013. Despite a limited number of consolidations and resulting negative absorption of 105,000 sf, area sentiment remains focused on growth patterns lasting back to 2010, since when tenants have absorbed 4.8 million sf. Most of this absorption, or 2.6 million sf, has taken place in submarkets representing just 32 million sf of the region s 180 million sf inventory, with this sustained demand activity a representation of a shift in tenants desires to locate in, and willingness to pay for, space in the region s most attractive areas. Having boasted little availability for many consecutive quarters, Back Bay and East Cambridge have been joined by the Seaport District, Framingham and Waltham, where sustained recent demand trends have materially shifted the demand/supply balance. Availability figures for the Back Bay, East Cambridge and the Seaport District tend to overstate the ease of finding options for tenants; much of the available space in these markets is concentrated in a few distinct properties, offering tenants few distinct choices. Surging asking rents for space in the Back Bay, East Cambridge and for the Class B brick and beam style office space in the Fort Point area of the Seaport District contrast with more stable conditions nearly everywhere else (except for Waltham, having seen a small pricing adjustment this past quarter). Asking rents for the most preferred properties now eclipse $60 per sf in East Cambridge and $70 per sf in the Back Bay, as average Class A space in the Back Bay is now priced 23 percent higher than space in the Financial District. Seaport District Class B asking rents, having remained at similar levels in the quarter when compared with year-end figures, face unabated tenant demand for the product type and rapidly decreasing availability may substantiate further increase in rents this year. A ravenous tenant appetite for new product is supporting the current 95 percent leased 2.6 million sf pipeline, of which 1.3 million sf will deliver this year. These facilities will join the five million sf that have already been delivered this decade and are 95.2 percent leased. These resounding numbers combined with tenant enthusiasm over certain areas is strengthening the momentum of some long-delayed projects and precipitating new proposals to infill in the region s hottest areas. The redevelopment of the Sullivan Courthouse and a reconfiguration of Cambridge Center could deliver hundreds of thousands of square feet in East Cambridge while Boston Properties is exploring the possibility of an office tower on air rights it owns over a garage in the Back Bay near the John Hancock Tower. The delayed Filene s redevelopment could be underway this year, if the landlord secures a rumored anchor tenant. 2
Boston CBD Highlights The Boston submarkets experienced negative absorption of 155,000 sf, raising vacancy 0.3 percent to 11.1 percent as Class A rents increased $0.88 to $50.29 per sf. Back Bay Class A rents have surged to levels 23 percent above levels presently seen in the Financial District. Fifty-five percent of Seaport District vacancy is in just three properties; vacancy outside these buildings is 8.4 percent. & // Central Boston 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 sf in millions 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 (0.2) (0.4) (0.6) (0.8) (1.0) MFS took occupancy of 280,000 sf at 111 Huntington Avenue from 500 Boylston Street as Cambridge Associates moved into 170,000 sf at 125 High Street from 100 Summer Street and PayPal took occupancy of 63,000 sf at One International Place. 11..5 Quarterly -155,000 sf Last Twelve Months 751,000 sf One Channel Center is under construction in the Seaport District: the 500,000 sf structure is a build-to-suit project for State Street Corporation. Converse will relocate its headquarters into 186,000 sf of a larger redevelopment of Lovejoy Wharf near North Station in 2015 in a move from North Andover. Class A Asking Rates // Central Boston $80 $70 $60 Class A asking rent per sf per year FINANCIAL DISTRICT BACK BAY Goodwin Procter & Hoar has agreed to lease 360,000 sf at One Channel Center, a 500,000 sf facility to be developed in the Seaport District with construction $50 $40 expected to begin this fall. Clarion Partners acquired a six building portfolio in the Seaport District from National Development ($129.3 million, 407,000 sf, $317 per sf). $30 CURRENT AVERAGE ASKING RATES Central Boston $50.29 Financial District $48.29 Back Bay $59.26 Construction Industry Flourishes // Breakdown of the 2.6 million sf construction pipeline PROJECT LOCATION CITY SIZE (SF) Liberty Mutual 157 Berkeley Street Boston 580,000 Vertex 1-11 Fan Pier Boulevard Boston 550,000 State Street 1 Channel Street Boston 500,000 Biogen Idec 225 Binney St & 17 Cambr. Center Cambridge 495,000 Keurig project 63 South Avenue Burlington 343,000 Speculative Project 78 Blanchard Road Burlington 120,000 Harvard Vanguard Concord Meadows Concord 50,000 BOSTON FACT Farnsworth, Melcher, Sleeper and the other street names in the Fort Point area were officers of the Boston Wharf Company which created the area in the early 19th century by landfill and owned its buildings up until the 21st century. 3
Cambridge Highlights Flat absorption of negative 9,000 sf left vacancy stable at 7.9 percent as average Class A asking rents increased $1.85 to $50.20 per sf. East Cambridge Class A asking rents have surged more than ten percent in three quarters with asking rents at $60 per sf for the most preferred properties. Positive absorption activity has slowed as the most preferred available spaces near Kendall Square have insufficient available space to support further growth. Half of all East Cambridge availability is at just four locations. Nearly 1.6 million sf of tenant growth in the Seaport District is from former Cambridge, mostly East Cambridge, occupants (see page 7). More than 70 percent of all Cambridge office buildings are completely full. The Edward Sullivan Courthouse, shuttered by the state in 2010, could be redeveloped as a 500,000 sf office building, a project that could begin later this year. & // Cambridge 25 20 15 10 5 0 sf in thousands 500 400 300 200 100 0 (100) (200) (300) (400) (500) (600) 11..5 Quarterly Last Twelve Months Class A Asking Rates // Cambridge per sf per year $70 $60 $50 Class A asking rent EAST CAMBRIDGE MID CAMBRIDGE WEST CAMBRIDGE -155,000 sf 751,000 sf $40 Boston Properties is in discussions with Cambridge city officials to explore an increase in allowed density at its Cambridge Center property. Normandy Real Estate acquired a ten-building portfolio of properties near Central Square ($37.5 million, 164,000 sf, $228 per sf) as O Connor Capital Partners bought 55 Wheeler Street ($27.0 million, 126,000 sf, $214 per sf). $30 $20 $10 CURRENT AVERAGE ASKING RATES East Cambridge $54.58 Mid Cambridge $49.40 West Cambridge $35.45 Rents Still a Bargain Compared to 01 // Current Class A discount to peak 2001 asking rents CAMBRIDGE FACT 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 Boston Cambridge Rte 128 I-495-12 -16-24 -29-33 -36-42 -46 Nominal Real This waterway near Kendall Square is the Broad Canal, a lone and truncated remnant of a complex and active canal system originating in 1806 that encompassed much of the area; all other canals were landfilled in the 20th century. Real rents adjusted for inflation using Boston CMSA Consumer Price Index 4
Route 128 Highlights remained stable at 16.6 percent on slight positive absorption of 66,000 sf as average Class A asking rents increased $0.29 to $26.94 per sf. Flat conditions masked a period of strong positive absorption to the West and South, and negative absorption in the North. Rent increases in Waltham propelled Route 128 levels higher. Waltham vacancy has dropped from 26.7 percent to 16.2 percent over nine quarters as tenants have absorbed more than one million sf. FM Global took occupancy of 80,000 sf at 1175 Boston Providence Highway in Norwood, the first new construction delivery along 128 since 2009; Dedham Medical Associates took the other 80,000 sf at the 160,000 sf facility. & // Route 128 25 20 15 10 5 0 Class A Asking Rates // Route 128 sf in thousands 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 (200) (400) (600) (800) (1,000) (1,200) 16.6 Quarterly Last Twelve Months 66,000 sf 719,000 sf GZA moved into 45,000 sf in Norwood as Citizens Disability took occupancy of 43,000 sf in Waltham and Propel Marketing moved into 28,000 sf in Quincy; AECOM pulled out of 85,000 sf in Wakefield as part of a reorganization. Class A asking rent per sf per year $40 $35 $30 ROUTE 128 NORTH ROUTE 128 WEST ROUTE 128 SOUTH A residential phase of Quincy Center s $1.2 billion redevelopment is expected to ultimately include 700,000 sf of office space. Equus Capital divested 400, 410 and 460 Totten Pond Road in Waltham ($47.0 million, 298,000 sf, $158 per sf) as James Campbell Company purchased 160 Gould Street in Needham ($26.4 million, 139,000 sf, $190 per sf). $25 $20 $15 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012 CURRENT AVERAGE ASKING RATES Route 128 North $25.91 Route 128 West $30.99 Route 128 South $21.04 New Construction is RED HOT // Direct availability by decade of construction Decade Inventory (RSF) Dir Avail Pre 60s 36,900,000 13.8 60s 11,900,000 14.8 70s 24,500,000 16.3 80s 65,500,000 24.1 90s 17,900,000 15.0 00s 20,700,000 12.8 10s* 5,000,000 4.8 *Includes projects currently under construction 128 FACT The interchange of Routes 93 and 95 in Woburn is the state s most congested traffic point, with 375,000 cars per day; the 40 year-old outdated cloverleaf design, rare for areas of such high volume, is expected to be replaced by 2020. 5
Interstate 495 Highlights Slight negative absorption of 48,000 sf left vacancy stable at 20.0 percent and average Class A asking lease rates flat at $19.72 per sf. Marlborough average asking lease rates have risen above $18 per sf for the first time since 2009; the town is set to undergo a transformation with a flurry of new tenants and retail amenities. Andover and Chelmsford have combined for 241,000 sf of negative absorption last twelve months as the two well regarded areas have been impacted with consolidation events. Framingham/Natick vacancy has fallen from 11.8 percent to 9.9 percent on three consecutive quarters of positive absorption driven by Class A properties., Completions, // Interstate 495 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Class A Asking Lease Rates // Interstate 495 sf in thousands 600 400 200 0 (200) (400) (600) (800) (1,000) 20.0 Quarterly Last Twelve Months -48,000 sf -65,000 sf Cambridge Isotope Laboratories moved into 39,000 sf in Tewksbury as AECOM took occupancy of 35,000 sf in Westford, Advanced Cell Technology moved into 30,000 sf in Marlborough and Virgin Healthmiles took occupancy of 20,000 sf in Framingham; Enterasys vacated 152,000 sf in Andover in a relocation to New Hampshire. $25 $24 $23 $22 $21 $20 Class A asking rent per sf per year I-495 NORTH I-495 WEST I-495 SOUTH Fifty-one percent of 495 properties were developed in the 1980s; that inventory is 22.4 percent vacant. Novaya Ventures acquired 1&2 Executive Drive in Chelmsford ($23.5 million, 225,000 sf, $104 per sf) as Maric bought the New England Business Center in Andover ($20.9 million, 242,000 sf, $86 per sf). $19 $18 $17 $16 I95-North $18.40 I95-West $20.96 I95-South $20.12 Most Buildings See Rising Occupancy // Number of buildings experiencing growth, contraction and stability 495 FACT 1,176 148 104 Buildings experiencing occupancy increases of at least 2,000 sf Buildings experiencing occupancy decreases of at least 2,000 sf Buildings experiencing less than a 2,000 sf shift in occupancy levels The first 27 Boston Marathons were 25 miles and started near the town center of Ashland; as the distance of the marathon was universalized at 26 miles, 285 yards, the starting line was pushed back to its present location in Hopkinton. 6
Market Interesting Seaport District the vision becomes reality. First an industrial powerhouse, then a giant discount parking lot for Financial District workers, a decades-long vision for the Seaport is becoming rapidly realized. Since 2008, more than 100 tenants have moved or announced moves into more than three and a half million sf of Seaport District space, establishing a new Boston office, relocating from another location or starting up. Below are some numbers behind this trend More than 100 new tenants largest seaport commitments since 2008 TENANT SEAPORT LOCATION SIZE (SF) Vertex Pharma. Fan Pier 1,100,000 State Street 1 Channel Center 500,000 Goodwin Procter Fan Pier 360,000 Fish & Richardson Fan Pier 124,000 JPMorgan Chase 451 D Street 120,000 Cengage Learning 20 Channel Center Street 110,000 LogMeIn 312-320 Summer Street 102,000 enernoc Fan Pier 82,000 Boston Herald 451 D Street 51,000 Zipcar 35 Thomson Street 46,000 from a diverse set of industries industries of new seaport occupants Biotech 1.1 million sf Financial 707,000 sf Legal 648,000 sf Tech 646,000 sf Creative 202,000 sf Other 325,000 sf and numerous locations previous locations of new seaport occupants Cambridge/Watertown 1.5 million sf Financial District 1.4 million sf Other Boston 328,000 sf Suburbs 244,000 sf Startup 122,000 sf Other 108,000 sf are moving in sf committed by year of move-in in three distinct sub-areas micromarkets of seaport with amount taken as live/work/play is achieved // growth in amenities 1996-2016* sf thousands 1,800 1,600 1,665 32 1,797 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fort Point 3.0 million sf World Trade Center 476,000 sf Marine Industrial Park 156,000 sf 5 0 0 1996 2016 1996 2016 1996 2016 Residential Units # of Restaurants Hotel Rooms *includes under construction projects With 42 annual publications, Richards Barry Joyce & Partners produces more research than any other commercial real estate advisory firm in Greater Boston. For more information, contact us at research@rbjrealestate.com. Brendan Carroll Senior Vice President of Research bcarroll@rbjrealestate.com 7
Spring // 2013 ABSORPTION/OCC GROWTH CONSTRUCTION $CL A ASKING RENT AREA RSF Vac Q1 13 LTM* Growth** Comp LTM* Pipeline Class A 4Qtr Ch*** TOTAL MARKET 179,856 14.5 (105) 1,550 1.0 160 2,638 $39.32 1.5 BOSTON SUBMARKETS 70,039 11.1 (155) 751 1.3 0 1,630 $50.29 2.2 Financial District 35,463 12.9 28 777 2.6 0 0 $48.29-0.4 Back Bay 13,272 7.7 (207) (256) -2.1 0 580 $59.26 7.4 Longwood/Inner South 5,221 6.3 0 33 0.7 0 0 $27.64 0.4 Seaport District 7,183 15.2 8 204 4.4 0 1,050 $51.07 13.8 Charlestown 2,873 6.0 (11) (48) -1.7 0 0 $26.82-10.6 Midtown 2,341 11.1 0 25 1.2 0 0 NA NA North Station 2,189 7.3 (1) (38) -1.9 0 0 $28.00 0.0 South Station 1,498 10.1 28 54 4.3 0 0 NA NA CAMBRIDGE 10,582 7.9 (9) (23) -0.2 0 495 $50.20 8.8 East Cambridge 6,851 8.5 (33) (114) -1.8 0 495 $54.58 10.5 Mid Cambridge 2,060 0.5 (7) 11 0.5 0 0 $49.40 2.9 West Cambridge 1,671 14.3 31 81 5.8 0 0 $35.45 6.4 SUBURBAN SUBMARKETS 99,235 17.7 59 821 1.0 160 513 $24.79 2.2 Inner North 4,060 15.4 41 167 5.1 0 0 $26.98 0.5 ROUTE 128 & I-495 95,175 17.8 18 654 0.9 160 513 $24.73 2.4 ROUTE 128 61,560 16.6 66 719 1.4 160 513 $26.94 2.5 Route 128 North 25,914 17.1 (244) 335 1.6 0 513 $25.91 6.3 Route 128 West 22,517 14.2 184 301 1.6 0 0 $30.99 0.3 Route 128 South 13,129 19.7 126 83 0.8 160 0 $21.04-3.3 I-495 33,615 20.0 (48) (65) -0.2 0 0 $19.72 1.9 I-495 North 15,092 23.6 (90) (266) -2.3 0 0 $18.40 2.1 I-495 West 15,909 17.3 39 (81) -0.6 0 0 $20.96-0.8 I-495 South 2,614 16.0 4 282 14.2 0 0 $20.12 0.0 ALL AMOUNTS, EXCEPT PERCENTAGES AND $ FIGURES IN THOUSANDS * LTM = Last twelve months // ** LTM absorption as a percentage of occupancy levels twelve months ago // *** Twelve months change in asking lease rate Lovejoy Warf Boston 320 Bent Street Cambridge 1601 Trapelo Road Waltham Richards Barry Joyce & Partners acted as tenant representative for Converse Inc. in connection with a lease agreement. Richards Barry Joyce & Partners acted as landlord representative for BioMed Realty Trust in connection with a lease agreement. Richards Barry Joyce & Partners acted as tenant representative for Constant Contact, Inc. in connection with a lease agreement. 187,000 SF 104,678 SF 251,326 SF Copyright 2013