KLIMATFÖRÄNDRINGAR, PARISMÖTET - OCH BEHOVET AV KLIMATANPASSNING. Andreas Gyllenhammar

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3 KLIMATFÖRÄNDRINGAR, PARISMÖTET - OCH BEHOVET AV KLIMATANPASSNING Andreas Gyllenhammar

4 LÄGE ATT FIRA! - 6 ÅR I TRAFIKANTVECKANS TJÄNST

5 EN TILLBAKABLICK TILL

6 EN TILLBAKABLICK TILL

7 INNEHÅLLET 2015 Hur fort går det? Läget vid forskningsfronten Vad ska göras i Paris i december, och kommer man att göra det? Dagen efter? Jämtlandsperspektivet!

8 KLIMATINTRESSET - GÅR DET UPP ELLER NER?

9 REGERINGSFÖRKLARINGEN - EN INDIKATOR PÅ KLIMATINTRESSET? Antal förekomster av ordet klimat per 1000 ord regeringsförklaring

10 REGERINGSFÖRKLARINGEN - EN INDIKATOR PÅ KLIMATINTRESSET? ,5 MILJARDER KR TILL KLIMATÅTGÄRDER Mkr investeringsstöd solceller Mkr klimatbistånd Mkr cykelfrämjande åtgärder Nationellt forum för smarta elnät Finansiering för fossilfri fordonsflotta (elbussar, supermiljöbilspremien mm)

11 NÄR STICKER KLIMATET IVÄG? Källa: Mora et al, The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Nature 502 (10 Oct 2013)

12 NÄR STICKER KLIMATET IVÄG? JÄMTLAND Källa: Mora et al, The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Nature 502 (10 Oct 2013)

13 STORSJÖNS ISPERIOD - GÅR ISEN UPP TIDIGARE? dagar avvikelse från 17 maj Storsjön islossning Linjär (Storsjön islossning) 30 per. glid. med. (Storsjön islossning) 10 per. glid. med. (Storsjön islossning)

14 SOMMAREN 2014

15 SOMMAREN 2015

16 GLOBALA TEMPERATURDATA (sedan 1870) Varmaste 12-månadersperioden (+0,85 C) Varmaste 6-månadersperioden Varmaste augusti (+0,88 C) (Feb, mars, maj, juni, juli också varmast) Lägsta maxutbredning av isen i Arktis sedan 1894 Glaciärerna minskar 76 cm i tjocklek i år (dubbelt så snabbt som under 90-talet, tre gånger snabbare än under 80-talet). Kan bli starkaste El Niño på 50 år 97% sannolikhet att 2015 blir varmaste året hittills Källa:

17 KLIMATVETENSKAPEN RISK OCH UTSLÄPPSUTRYMME Havsnivåhöjning - risk för snabbare höjning? Golfströmmen - avmattning och risk för mer? Hur mycket kvarvarande fossil energi kan vi använda? Räkna med rapportflod inför COP21 i Paris!

18 VÅR KVARVARANDE KOLBUDGET - HUR MYCKET KAN VI BRÄNNA? UNBURNABLE CARBON: WHY WE NEED TO LEAVE FOSSIL FUELS IN THE GROUND The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Sannolikhet att klara tvågradersmålet Kolbudget (Gt CO2 fr o m 2012) % av kvarvarande fossila förekomster som får användas Antal år med nuvarande utsläppstakt 50 % % , % 672 6,1 19

19 FN SÄTTER NYA HÅLLBARHETSMÅL - BÄDDAR FÖR NYTT KLIMATAVTAL Goal 1 End poverty in all its forms everywhere Goal 2 End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture Goal 3 Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages Goal 4 Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all Goal 5 Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls Goal 6 Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Goal 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Goal 8 Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all Goal 9 Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Goal 10 Reduce inequality within and among countries Goal 11 Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable Goal 12 Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns Goal 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts* Goal 14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development Goal 15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss Goal 16 Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels Goal 17 Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development

20 FN SÄTTER NYA HÅLLBARHETSMÅL - BÄDDAR FÖR NYTT KLIMATAVTAL Goal 1 End poverty in all its forms everywhere Goal 2 End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture Goal 3 Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages Goal 4 Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all Goal 5 Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls Goal 6 Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Goal 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Goal 8 Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all Goal 9 Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Goal 10 Reduce inequality within and among countries Goal 11 Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable Goal 12 Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns Goal 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts* Goal 14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development Goal 15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss Goal 16 Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels Goal 17 Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development

21 KRASCHEN I KÖPENHAMN - VAD GICK SNETT?

22 FÖRUTSÄTTNINGARNA INFÖR PARIS - TYDLIGARE MANDAT, FÖRUTSÄTTNINGAR OCH VILJA Annex II Co-Chairs' Tool: A Non-Paper Illustrating Possible Elements of the Paris Package This document is without prejudice to the structure of the Paris agreement or to the placement of any provision within that structure. EXPLANATORY NOTE: Bättre förarbete Transparent och inkluderande process Länderna har mognat och levererar in INDCs Utkast finns med byggstenar till ett avtal 1. General approach This document has been prepared in response to the request of Parties at the ninth part of the second session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) held in Bonn, Germany, from 1 to 11 June 2015 (ADP 2.9). It is intended to serve as a tool to assist Parties in the preparations for the tenth part of the second session of the ADP (ADP 2.10). In line with our suggestions on the way forward made on 11 June this tool is presented as a single document. Its preparation has been guided by the views expressed by Parties during the 8 June stocktaking meeting, taking fully into account the discussions of Parties during ADP 2.9. It includes a fully streamlined, consolidated, clear and concise version of the Geneva negotiating text (GNT), which presents clear options and does not omit or delete any option or position of Parties. This informal document has been prepared in three stages: First, each section of the streamlined and consolidated text (SCT) of 11 June was fully consolidated to the extent that this was considered possible taking into account the work of the two ADP negotiating groups and all the facilitated meetings held during the June session. Second, opportunities for consolidation across sections of the text were implemented to the extent that this was considered possible taking into account the views expressed by Parties during ADP 2.9. (See also 5. below.) Third, the consolidated paragraphs were allocated among three main parts of the present tool in the following manner: - a. Provisions that are, by their nature, obviously appropriate for inclusion in an agreement (e.g. overarching commitments, durable provisions and standard provisions for an agreement) were allocated to Part One of the tool, entitled Draft Agreement. - b. Provisions that are, by their nature, obviously appropriate for inclusion in a decision (e.g. details of implementation, provisions likely to change over time, provisions related to pre-2020 actions and interim arrangements) were allocated to Part Two of the tool, entitled Draft Decision 1/CP.21. Depending on the nature of these provisions they have been placed in the relevant sections of the draft decision, based on the initially suggested structure 2 and taking into account the suggestions of Parties during the stocktaking meeting of 8 June (see also 6. below). - c. All other provisions remain in Part Three of the tool, entitled Provisions whose placement requires further clarity among Parties in relation to the draft agreement or draft decision. In this initial distribution, all provisions have the same status since they are all derived from the GNT. The initial distribution does not establish a hierarchy among them, and it is without prejudice to the negotiations among Parties. The initial distribution is also without prejudice to the ultimate structure of the Paris agreement and to the placement of any provision within that agreement. 2. Specific considerations as to the initial distribution While some provisions may be appropriate for inclusion in an agreement, some Parties have expressed reservations about them being included in the agreement in their current form. Therefore, such provisions have 1 2 Co-Chairs Suggestions on the Way Forward for the Preparation of ADP 2.10, made available as a note on 11 June 2015 and announced in the closing plenary ADP 2.9. See draft skeletal outline for a Paris decision, Annex II to the Scenario Note of 5 May 2015 (ADP InformalNote), also reproduced below, following this explanatory note, for information. Co- Chairs Tool 1 P age

23 LÄGESRAPPORT INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) Role model Sufficient Medium Inadequate 60 länder har skickat in (14 sept) Bhutan Costa Rica Brasilien Australien Etiopien Kina Kanada 66% av globala utsläppen Marocko EU Chile Indien Japan Inte i linje med tvågradersmålet Indonesien Nya Zeeland Kazakstan Ryssland Mexiko Singapore Norge Sydafrika Peru Sydkorea Schweiz Ukraina USA Källa:

24 ETT NYTT KLIMATAVTAL VID COP21? - OCH UNDER VILKA VILLKOR? Hur bindande? Vilken ambitionsnivå? Med vilken finansiering? Är det bra eller dåligt?

25 OCH NÄR VI VAKNAR UPP DEN 12 DECEMBER? - JOBBET KVARSTÅR, ANPASSNING KOMMER BEHÖVAS

26 VI BEHÖVER REDA UT EN DEL - ANSVAR, KUNSKAP, MÅL OCH REGLER T EX SLUTSATSER: Regelverk behöver anpassas, roller och ansvar samt strategier och mål måste tydliggöras. Prioriterade forsknings- och utvecklingsinsatser, som fyller identifierade kunskapsbehov inklusive långtidsövervakning, behöver genomföras. Kunskap, beslutsstöd och prognos- och varningssystem behöver göras mer tillgängligt. Hur kostnader ska fördelas mellan olika aktörer, och hur resurser till prioriterade åtgärder ska säkerställas, behöver klarläggas.

27 DET MESTA GÅR ÅT RÄTT HÅLL - MEN NIVÅN OCH FARTEN MÅSTE UPP

28 SMART IS THE SHORTCUT TO GREEN - VI HAR HITTAT NYCKELN TILL FARTÖKNINGEN