Using the Sustainable Development Goals to Facilitate Comprehensive Planning

Transkript

1 EXAMENSARBETE INOM TEKNIK, GRUNDNIVÅ, 15 HP STOCKHOLM, SVERIGE 2018 Using the Sustainable Development Goals to Facilitate Comprehensive Planning A mapping of interlinkages between the targets of Agenda 2030 and seawater desalination in Agadir, Morocco. DOUGLAS LINDÉN LINNÉA NYMAN KTH SKOLAN FÖR ARKITEKTUR OCH SAMHÄLLSBYGGNAD

2 Abstract Freshwater scarcity is an issue with multiple origins, currently affecting a major part of the earths' population. Rapid urbanization, intensive agriculture, people growth and over consumption leads to stress on freshwater resources; a concern that is expected to increase in the future due to the impacts of climate change. One of the most acknowledged technologies to cope with increasing freshwater scarcity in coastal areas is seawater desalination, and currently a large-scale desalination project is carried out in Morocco. The project aims to provide millions of people with drinking water simultaneously as supporting the important agriculture with irrigation water. In the Souss-Massa region, where the desalination plant is being built, water access is closely linked to the economy through agriculture and tourism, as well as wellbeing for individuals and nature. UN describes the need for effective planning to meet climate-related and humanitarian threats as urgent and has agreed on the current Sustainable Development Goals in Agenda This thesis provides a mapping of interlinkages between the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Moroccan desalination project. It is aimed to support and facilitate decision making on planning level in order to reach the Sustainable Development Goals. Here evidence in literature is used to identify synergies and trade-offs between desalination and fulfilment of the SDG targets in the region. In total 46 synergies and 17 trade-offs were identified, and the synergies and trade-offs are presented in illustrations and text and table form Appendix 1. The identified interlinkages are discussed based on the result shown in Appendix 1 and the supplementary information provided in section Sammanfattning Brist på färskvatten har blivit ett vardagligt problem för en stor del av världens befolkning, och det är en angelägenhet som förväntas öka i framtiden med anledning av fortsatt urbanisering, befolkningstillväxt, intensivt jordbruk och överkonsumtion. I framtiden förväntas klimatförändringar förvärra färskvattenbristen ytterligare, och en av åtgärderna för att stå emot vattenbrist i torra områden är avsaltning av havsvatten. Just nu pågår ett av världens största projekt för avsaltning i Marocko. Projektet ämnar förse miljontals människor med dricksvatten och samtidigt tillgodose jordbruket i regionen med vatten för bevattning. Avsaltningsprojektet äger rum i regionen Souss-Massa. Där är vattentillgångarna nära kopplat till den regionala ekonomin genom jordbruk och turism, likväl som det en nödvändighet för människor och natur. FN, ihop med många andra aktörer, beskriver behovet för effektiv planering för att möta klimatrelaterade och humanitära hot som "brådskande". De har även tagit fram de globala hållbarhetsmålen i Agenda Denna rapport innehåller en kartläggning av kopplingar mellan avsaltningsprojektet i Marocko och FN:s hållbarhetsmål. Syftet är att identifiera och kartlägga synergier och kompromisser mellan projektets införande och hållbarhetsmålen. Detta för att förenkla interdisciplinär planering för att effektivt nå målen i Agenda Totalt är 46 synergier och 17 kompromisser identifierade, utspritt över olika målområden. Synergierna och kompromisserna är presenterade i illustrationer, text och tabellform och diskuteras baserat på resultatet i Appendix 1 samt kompletterande information från rapporten. 1

3 Acknowledgment We wish to express our sincere thanks and appreciation to our thesis advisor Francesco Fuso Nerini [KTH/Department of Energy Technology]. Thank you for supporting the work with the iterative process throughout the entire semester, and for sharing your expertise when advise was needed. 2

4 Content ABSTRACT... 1 SAMMANFATTNING... 1 ACKNOWLEDGMENT INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND METHODOLOGY... 6 DEMARCATIONS AND TERMS RESULT MOROCCO... 8 Social conditions... 9 Moroccan Society... 9 Ministries and Institutions... 9 Infrastructure Economy Environment and climate Water access SOUSS-MASSA CASE The project in Souss-Massa Energy supply Desalination Environmental impact IDENTIFIED SYNERGIES AND TRADE-OFFS Summary of result Society Economy Environment and climate DISCUSSION Result Methodology, source criticism and limits CONCLUSION REFERENCES

5 1. Introduction Water scarcity is expected to become a growing issue, currently affecting around 2 billion people. Dry periods and extreme weather are expected to increase in both frequency and duration, and especially vulnerable are arid areas in countries close to the equator. Still, climate change is not the paramount origin to freshwater scarcity; many regions experience rapid urbanization, population growth and intensive agriculture which are all activities expected to increase in the future and thereby worsen the water situation. Currently an estimated 1.4 billion people currently live in river basin areas where over consumption of water leads to an outtake that is greater than the natural recharge, and it affects both daily life and businesses. A measure to meet the future need for freshwater is desalination, a technology used in coastal areas where groundwater levels are low (Watkins, 2006). In 2011 Professor Bouchaou at University Ibn Zohr called for examination of options to improve the infrastructure for water in the Souss-Massa basin, Morocco under the conditions of climate change (Bouchaou, et al., 2011). Currently such a project, intended to cope with water scarcity in Souss-Massa, is carried out. The project involves construction and installation of a desalination plant by the coast near Agadir. It is meant to provide millions of people with reliable supply of drinking water and furthermore secure access to water for agricultural irrigation (Lahsini, 2017). The aim of the thesis is to identify synergies and trade-offs between the targets associated with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and the desalination project in Agadir, Morocco (sometimes referred to as "the project" through this work). The project is primarily addressing issues related to water, agriculture and energy but due to its nature of being a part of a socio-technical system it might also affect, and be affected by, other factors. By mapping synergies between the desalination project in Agadir, Morocco and the UN SDG:s, the report is meant to provide a comprehensive possibility to coordinate work with various policies and projects. The most clearly profitable synergies and threatening tradeoffs read from the result will be discussed and emphasized as suitable areas for future further investigation and cooperation. 4

6 2. Background In 2015 the members of the United Nations met in New York for a historic meeting aimed to decide the new sustainability goals which was intended to supersede the Millennium Development Goals. The outcome was an agreement on Agenda 2030; a collection of goals meant to secure sustainable development for the coming fifteen years. Agenda 2030 consists of 17 goals divided into 169 targets which concern the fundamental areas where action needs to be taken: people, planet, prosperity, peace and partnership (The goals are listed below) (UN, 2015). In 2016, an international group consisting of multidisciplinary experts identified synergies between SDG 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all and the other SDG targets, which was put together in an article published in Nature. The mapping of the synergies was made in purpose to facilitate organization between actors involved in work related to the SDG:s since the need for effective work towards the goals is urgent. For instance, the article states that There is an urgent need to better organize, connect and extend this evidence, to help all actors work to achieve sustainable development (Fuso Nerini, et al., 2017). Later on, in January 2018, the UN-DESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs) held an international expert conference regarding the same topic; interlinkages between the Agenda 2030 targets. The presentations included, amongst others, topics like "policy integrations and synergy analysis", "SDG interactions framework", and "Nexus Water, Food, Climate, Energy" (UN (1), 2018). Also, work with comprehensive planning related to the SDGs take place at national level. In 2016 the Moroccan government held a workshop with multiple stakeholders, in aim to emphasize the importance and develop understanding of the inter-disciplinary nature of the Sustainable Development Goals in Agenda (UN, 2016). In Morocco, which is one of the most arid countries in the world, the Hydraulic Basin Agency in the Souss-Massa region has introduced a long-term management plan called the master plan. The plan aims to meet the current changes in social, ecological and economic conditions (Choukr-Allah, et al., 2017). The Souss-Massa region experiences population growth, industrialization, tourism and climate changes leading to increased periods of drought and less precipitation, along with an increased water use from different sectors. The management plan aims primarily to develop water use management and is presented through different scenarios related to the groundwater level and water supply. It includes many parameters such as population growth, deforestation, urbanization etc. The result of the master plan enlightens the baseline situation of Souss-Massa, as well as future demands, challenges and estimations. The most suitable solutin to meet the water scarcity issue was shown to be seawater desalination, which is currently established in Souss-Massa (Choukr- Allah, et al., 2017). The desalination project in Souss-Massa is currently carried out to establish a sustainable water management in the region, since the water scarcity affects the society through various means. Except for scarcity of drinking water, the low water levels affect the region's economy which heavily relies on agriculture and tourism. (Choukr-Allah, et al., 2017). The plant is 5

7 under construction, and is estimated to be in operation in 2020, reaching full capacity operation in The desalination plant can produce m 3 water/day with a possible expansion for a total capacity of m 3 water/day m 3 secures drinking water for 2.3 million people and approximately m 3 water for irrigation. (Jaouhari, 2017) (Lahsini, 2017) The UN calls for efficient management and integrated planning to reach the Sustainable Development Goals, and the master plan emphasizes the importance of integrated planning between sectors (UN, 2015) (Choukr-Allah, et al., 2017). With an eye to these needs, the thesis is initiated and aimed to present a methodological approach to identify relations between implementation of a project, and its contributions to the fulfillment of the Sustainable Development Goals in Agenda 2030, the goals can be seen in figure 1. The Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goals SDG 1 End poverty in all its forms everywhere 2 End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture 3 Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages 4 Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life-long learning opportunities for all 5 Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls 6 Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all 8 Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all 9 Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation 10 Reduce inequality within and among countries 11 Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable 12 Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns" 13 Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts 14 Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development 15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss 16 Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels 17 Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development Figure 1: The 17 UN Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (UN, 2015). 3. Methodology Briefly, the work and the thesis structure are divided in two major parts consisting of a report and a supplementary table [See appendix 1]. Both works are made through iterative 6

8 processes, and at the same time. The report has an ordinary structure, containing introduction to the case, basic information used in the work with the supplementary table, a summary of the result read from the supplementary table, discussion and conclusion. The supplementary table contains the entire result regarding synergies and trade-offs, which are based on literary evidence for a correlation matching the case and the SDG target. The different columns dedicated to describing each target, show the presence of evidence of synergy or trade-off, and provide the authors reasoning* which is supported by literate evidence of the corresponding correlation. The sources for the evidence are referred to in the "References" column and the references are divided into three types; similar project, aim of project a general correlation. To improve the precision and knowledge for the reasoning about synergies and trade-offs a literature study of Morocco was carried out. Areas in focus were divided into categories matching the SDG:s, regarding social conditions, economy and environment, all in order to be able to make reasonable and relevant discussions regarding synergies and trade-offs with the project. The study was made as an iterative process, elaborated both as preparation and during the work process when further knowledge was perceived as required and is included in the report. [See the Demarcations and Terms section for definition and demarcation of synergies and trade-offs considered.] The identification of possible synergies and trade-offs by discussion was complemented by a literature study in the subject of the target, and the result comes from an iterative course of action. The initial design of the Excel template [See appendix 1] is developed by Fuso Nerini, Et. Al., and forms the framework for the identification of the interlinkages. (Fuso Nerini. Et.al. 2017). Some headlines and cells were adjusted in accordance to better fit the current desalination project. The category "Reasoning" was formed through independent work and meetings with the supervisor for the project every two weeks. The literature study was carried out to strengthen the synergies existence, although not to prove a definite synergy for all similar cases. Targets missing an identified synergy are not proven to be areas absolute without synergies but might hold synergies beyond the extent of this report, or synergies agreed to be far-fetched. All synergies and trade-offs are mapped in a table consisting of an excel-sheet including reasoning, references and reference type as mentioned above. The result from the Supplementary table is compiled and presented in the report [See 5.4, and figure 4] along with a discussion about interlinkages of special interest, weaknesses and strengths of the methodology and interpretations of the result. The conclusion was made based entirely on the result read from the supplementary table, and the identified interlinkages were not compared or quantified in any way in the table or illustration [Appendix 1]. An interlinkage in this study is true if the connection between the project and the target are no further than two references. If the interlinkage is based on a reference that expresses the aim of the project and it is agreeing with the target, the interlinkage is true. The same goes for an interlinkage based on a reference with results of a similar project. If the reference is based on a general correlation there should be two references, one that states the fact that there is general evidence of a correlation to the target. And one reference that connects the project with the general evidence. The interlinkage is true if both references are identified. In some cases, the second reference is unnecessary if reference withholds common knowledge. *The reasoning made in the supplementary table are partly based on the result of the literature study of Morocco regarding environmental and social conditions. Assumptions regarding significance and impact of changes called for by the SDG targets are made with respect to the information presented in the section below (Demarcations and Terms). 7

9 Demarcations and terms The following section includes definitions agreed upon by the authors in order to facilitate the work and to enable a consistent base for the reasoning regarding synergies and trade-offs between the SDGs and the desalination project. The concept synergy is defined as a connection between multiple influences, meaning that the influence of a change cooperates with another and together result in a greater effect than they would have if the utilities were added separately. The interlinkages (synergies and tradeoffs) identified mean a direct relation between the project and the SDGs, where the effects of implementation of the project either contributes to or impedes the reaching of the SDG target. It refers to an interlinkage related to the specific desalination project in Souss-Massa, and the Moroccan social, economic and ecological environment in a reasonable and foreseeable time frame. Synergies identified consider Moroccan national circumstances, unless stated otherwise. The synergies are primarily focused on the Souss-Massa basin, although some targets concern common resources such as water, air and infrastructure. Trade-offs are for the work with the reasoning [see appendix 1] defined as a compromise, where the gains from a change might lessen another, or the total gain from the change. The synergies and trade-offs identified are seen as effects from the project which are contributing to reach the sustainable development goals, but not the opposite, meaning impacts from the SDG:s affecting the project are not considered. Since they are expected to be more difficult to find evidence of, they exist on a planning level and are hard to observe and are of less significance. The categories of evidence; "similar project, aim of project and general correlation is defined as follows: A similar project refers to a desalination project with resembling geographical and social conditions as the reference project in Souss-Massa, or a desalination plant of a similar type or model. Evidence of the type "aim of project" refers to evidence of intentions stated by the initiators of the project. A general correlation is a proven relation between changes in two factors or more, either affecting or affected by the desalination plant. 5. Result 5.1 Morocco The following sections are the result of an iterative literature study carried out in purpose of developing a brief understanding for the Moroccan social, economic and ecological conditions to make the reasoning [See appendix 1]. It is intentioned to serve as a brief background of the Moroccan situation. The result is presented in sections and headlines related to the SDG:s, to represent which category of SDG the result is most relevant for. 8

10 Social conditions The following section briefly presents various social conditions regarding education, rural areas and the energy system. Furthermore, the primarily ministries and institutions involved in the decision making and operation of the desalination project are introduced. Moroccan Society The Kingdom of Morocco is a country with approximately 35.6 million people. The capital is Rabat with a population of 1.2 million and its biggest city is Casablanca with a population of 6.8 million (IEA, 2014). The government in Morocco is a constitutional monarchy and the King Mohammed VI has ruled since year In 2011 Morocco introduced a new constitutional reform and the parliament and prime minister Saadeddine Othmani's power was enlarged. Although the reform, King Mohammed have most of the ruling power, for example to nominate ministers. The percentage of children in school age which stayed and completed last grade of primary schools in Morocco was 89% in 2014, (compared to nearly 100% in Sweden) (The World Bank, 2014). In 2015 almost two thirds of the population lived in urban areas, and since Morocco experiences a wide urbanization the share of the population living in rural areas is decreasing steadily (The World Bank (1), 2018). Three thirds of the farmers in Morocco works less than five hectares of land, while they only account for a quarter of the total national cultivation areas. Large farms are more profitable, has better access to infrastructural and mechanical support, and benefit more from governmental programs than family farmers (Perry, 2015). Ministries and Institutions The Ministry of Energy, Mines, Water and Environment (Sometimes in English contexts named the ministry of Energy, Mines and Sustainable Development) is head of both public and private business institutions operating in the mentioned sectors. The ministry consists of different departments such as risk management, cooperation and communication etc. and is involved in the Souss-Massa desalination project through its position in the creation of the master plan (see section 2.) (Royuame du Maroc, 2013). Office National de l'eau Potable, ONEE, is a governmental institution is the major national water and electricity company in Morocco. The institution was created in 2012 from the former institutions National Office of Electricity (ONE) and National Office of Drinking Water. ONEE is involved in procurements, monitoring, management and investments regarding drinking water and electricity (L'Office National de l'electricité et de Potable, 2018). ONEE has made an investment of 600 MAD ($65 million) in the desalination plant, dedicated to finance pipes, a tank for drinking water, high voltage power lines, pumping stations and loading tanks (Lahsini, 2017). The Ministry of agriculture, sea fishery, rural development, water and forests works with implementation of governmental policies in various missions assigned by the Moroccan 9

11 government. It is an institution responsible for juridical questions, research, investments and development of strategies to improve the sectors of agriculture, sea fishery, rural development water and forests (Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, 2018). The desalination project in Souss-Massa is implemented as a part of the water management scheme developed by the ministry of agriculture, sea fishery, rural development, water and forests (Desalination, 2017). Infrastructure In 2012 the sources used for production of electricity was mainly divided between coal, natural gas, oil and hydro power. Most of the raw materials used in the power generating processes were imported since Morocco lacks natural resources such as coal, oil and gas. Although Moroccan climate provides ample amounts of wind and solar power, the power generated from sun and wind in 2012 was negligible (IEA, 2014). Currently solar plants are installed, and some solar power projects are in process, planned to reach a capacity of 2000 MW in 2020 which will account for 14% of the total capacity estimated to reach MW in 2020 (The International Trade Administration, 2017). In 2014, 91.6% of the population had access to electricity, a rate that have been steadily increasing since 1990, and reaching 100% in 2016 (The World Bank (2), 2018). In the global arena Morocco has gained a higher repute and is now one of the most developed countries in Africa (IEA, 2014), still considered a developing country by the UN (UN, 2014). In ,7% of the produced electricity came from renewable sources, excluding hydroelectric power (The World Bank (3), 2018). Economy The following section includes overall economic conditions in Morocco such as employment in different sectors, GDP, poverty rates and import/export. In 2017 the employment rate in Morocco was estimated to 44%, that is approximately a total of 15.6 million people making up the employed labor force (The World Bank (4), 2018). The three main sectors for employment is service, agriculture and industry, which engages 12 million people. The service sector is by far the biggest contribution to the national economy, accounting for 56% of the total GDP of $300.1 billion. Morocco has been one of the most political stable countries in Africa for a longer period, hence the widely developed tourism. 10% of the national income comes from tourism and 20% of the total GDP (IEA, 2014). Big cities such as Marrakech in the interior, Agadir and Tarfaya with beaches and resorts and Fez as a spiritual capital of Morocco attracts more than 10 million international tourists every year (Latif, 2017). Until 2020 the Moroccan National Tourism Office aims to attract 20 million people every year (OBG, 2014). The importance of agricultural sector in Morocco is seen as "very high". It accounts for almost half of the employment in Morocco, reaching over 40%, and it accounts for approximately 17% of the GDP which is a significant contribution; amongst the highest rates in North Africa (Schilling, et al., 2012) 10

12 According to the national poverty lines, 9% of the total population lived in poverty in The year before (2006) 17% of the population lived on less than $3.20 per day (The World Bank (5), 2018). In % of the population was estimated to live in poverty, but in 2014 that number had dropped to 4.2% (Idrissi Noury, 2017). In 2007, 9% of the population was estimated by the national poverty lines to live in poverty, while 3% was estimated to live at, or under, a budget of $1.9 per way, and 48% lived on less than $5.50per day (The World Bank (5), 2018). Environment and climate This section briefly presents the general environmental conditions in Morocco, including environmental challenges related to water distribution. For more detailed information regarding the Souss-Massa region specifically, see section 5.2. Morocco is in Northern Africa and borders to West Sahara, Algeria and to Spain by the sea in the north. With a coastline stretching km the capital Rabat is one of many cities located by the coasts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea (CIA, 2018).The climate in Morocco is mostly Mediterranean but tends to have more extreme features in the inlands and with the big Atlas mountains that stretches through the country, most of the land is very dry or desert (The World Bank (6), 2018). With a total land area of sq km, 67% is land used for agriculture, 17% is arable land and 2% of the land is permanent crops (CIA, 2018). The area of the arable land is a bit over 9 million hectares, of which only 10% is irrigated although three quarters of the agricultural exports comes from irrigated land. Agricultural irrigation accounts for 86% of the national water use, but with growing population, specifically in urban areas the water demand is increasing. The increase in urban water demand has led to a decrease in grain production by approximately 9-12% in the Souss Massa region (Diaoa, et al., 2008). Water access Morocco has, due to the arid climate, made large investments to meet the growing scarcity of fresh water by establishing a National Drought Observatory, introduced water management plans and improved the efficiency of water distribution networks. Although over half of the population is estimated to be affected when droughts occur, which has been an oftenrecurrent event the last century, happening around every other year the last decades (UN, 2013). 83% of the total population was estimated to have access to at least basic drinking services in 2015, a number which is 64% in rural areas and 96% in urban areas. Of the total population 40% lives in rural areas the same year and 60% in urban areas. The distribution of population in urban/rural areas and access to basic water services is presented in figure 2 (The World Bank (1), 2018) (The World Bank (7), 2018) (The World Bank (8), 2018) (The World Bank (9), 2018). The water price is currently at $ 0.15 /m 3 with uptake from wells or $

13 /m 3 coming from the dam serving water for irrigation (Hirich (1), et al., 2015) [Currency at ]. The estimated price per cubic meter desalinated water is around $0.54/m (Lahsini, 2017) [Currency at ]. Figure 2: The diagram above shows the total % of the total population with access to/without access to basic drinking water services, divided into the respective shares of the population living in urban/rural areas (The World Bank (1), 2018) (The World Bank (7), 2018) (The World Bank (8), 2018) (The World Bank (9), 2018).. The historical monthly average in rainfall is around 30 mm in the Souss-Massa region, which makes Morocco one of the countries with least precipitation in the world along with other desert region-countries. The yearly rainfall in Morocco is an average of 230 mm a year, see figure 3 (The World Bank (6), 2018). The water used for irrigation is collected surface water stored in dams with a capacity of 797 million cubic meters, while the recharge rate is measured to be around 425 million cubic meters annually, depending heavily on the rainfall (Choukr-Allah, et al., 2017). 12

14 Figure 3: Average monthly rainfall and temperature for Souss-Massa region (The World Bank (6), 2018). 5.2 Souss-Massa Souss-Massa is a region located at the center of Morocco's coast to the Atlantic. Through it productive agriculture, fishing industry and tourism it is seen as the second most important economic region in Morocco. Although the area is arid, the agricultural sector accounts for a significant number of jobs, employing multiple thousands through permanent job. The agriculture in the Souss-Massa region is productive year-round, and accounts for 85% of the country s exported vegetables and half of the export of citrus fruits (Choukr-Allah, et al., 2017). In the Souss-Massa basin the groundwater levels are marked as deficient, as most of the southern regions in Morocco, and the water use is often too intense too keep the water levels sufficient. The primary threats to the freshwater reserves are overexploitation, aridity due to little rain and pollutions, the aquifer is shallow and sensitive to variable climate (Bouchaou, et al., 2011). In Souss-Massa the limit of the basin agencies and distribution of mobilizable surface water is only 4%, which is the lowest rate in the country apart from the Saharan desert region. Almost 90% of the mobilized groundwater is used for agricultural needs (Desvallées, et al., 2011). The desalination plant provides sustainable drinking and agricultural water which can be used instead of overexploit the aquifer and groundwater in Souss-Massa. Overexploiting has been a big problem for a long period of time and the groundwater-levels are declining between m/year in the aquifers. The increased water demand linked to tourism in the region is estimated to reach 32 Mm 3 /year. Even though the tourism-related increase of water demand, the agriculture will remain the major consumer of water, today accounting for 86% 13

15 of the total gross volume of water consumption. Approximately 892 Mm 3 water a year are used for irrigation and the destocking of groundwater due to overexploitation in the area is estimated to Mm 3/ /year (Choukr-Allah, et al., 2017). In a willingness to pay survey for the desalinated water local farmers were asked if they wanted to participate in the project. 92% of the asked farmers were willing to participate/join the project and 62% were willing to invest in the project. The project is implemented in the National Green Plan and farmers participation is of importance for the execution of the project (Hirich (2), et al., 2017). 5.3 Case The following section includes a description of the project in Souss-Massa, along with a brief description of the desalination process in general. The project in Souss-Massa The desalination plant in Souss-Massa is expected to become the world s largest desalination plants, with a capacity of m 3 per day. It consists of two major components, one generating drinking water and the other generating water for artificial irrigation. The project is the result of a merge of two water project. The unit will provide 2.3 million inhabitants with drinking water, of which about one fifth lives in rural areas (Lahsini, 2017). The desalination plant will be built and maintained by a Spanish-international company Abengoa. 29 of June 2017 Abengoa signed a contract holding responsibilities of engineering, construction and operations for a period of 27 years. The project is valued at $419,62 million (Abengoa, 2017) [Currency at ]. Energy supply The desalination plant will run entirely on solar power provided from Noor 1, through the installation of high voltage lines stretching between the solar complex and the desalination plant (Lahsini, 2017). During the seasons of the year the demand for irrigation water varies along with the ingoing solar power in matching curves. Meaning that the energy demand mainly for desalination of irrigation water is at the highest level at the same time as the solar irradiance (Casimir, 2013). Desalination Water scarcity is expected to become a growing issue in the coming decade, possibly affecting about two thirds of the world s population. The increasing scarcity of fresh water is due to multiple reasons; contamination of fresh water resources, climate change and a growing population. To meet the current and future needs desalination plants has been installed during the last three decades, especially in arid coastal areas. The technology used in most of the new desalination plants is reversed osmosis, meaning that seawater is crossing a semipermeable membrane under high pressure, letting the water but not salt through. The 14

16 seawater goes through an intake and pretreatment before the crossing of the membrane which separates the salt from the water. After the very desalination process the water is treated again before led into separate tanks for drinking water and irrigation water. The brine from the desalination process is discharged. (William A & Menachem, 2011). Environmental impact There are several points of concern regarding the use of desalination as a solution to water scarcity, mentioning the possible negative external effects such as impact on marine life, use of electricity and further emissions of greenhouse gases. Desalination is a relatively energy demanding process, requiring about 3 to 4 kwh per m3 water passing through which means the choice of energy source for the electricity used to operate the desalination affects the total environmental impact of the project. The seawater intake might affect both larval and larger organisms, depending on the location of the inlet arrangement. There are discussions whether the outlet brine can affect organisms since it contains a higher salt level than the seawater. Evidence of which level of salt concentration marine organisms can tolerate for a longer period of time is not established, leaving the possible negative effect uncertain. A solution discussed is to connect the desalination outlet to the cooling streams of power plants (William A & Menachem, 2011). In the process of the desalination brine is produced as a rest product. If the brine is discharged or dumped improperly it can bring negative effects on the local environment. The brine contains salt that s has been removed from the water. It s a possibility that the brine is polluted, then the disposal and management of the brine becomes more complicated. The project aims for a zero impact in the surrounding area and with help of modern technology, marine cartography and mapping the disposal is supposed to be environmental friendly. The brine will then be disposed in the Atlantic Ocean (Hirich (2), et al., 2017). In the area the desalination plant is to be installed a local protected bird has its natural habitat, Northern bald ibis (Hirich (2), et al., 2017). Northern bald ibis and can only be found in Morocco and (100 pairs) and Syria (two pairs). The bird is classified as the highest threat category (Critically Endangered) according to International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCS) (IUCN, 2017). 5.4 Identified synergies and Trade-Offs Summary of result A total of 46 synergies and 17 trade-offs were identified between the desalination project and the SDG targets, and all interlinkages, both synergies and trade-offs are illustrated in figure 4. In short, the interlinkages found were widely distributed between various SDG:s, though SDG 1, 2, 6, 8, 9 and 11 showed most evidence of interlinkages. Goal 4, 5 and 10 shows none, or very few interlinkages [See figure 1 for the list of SDG:s]. In the following sections 15

17 the result is presented SDG by SDG, and the result is divided into three main areas; environment, society and economy. Illustration of interlinkages Figure 4: Shows Interlinkages between UN developing goals and desalination project synergies and trade-offs 16

18 In the following sections specific synergies, trade-offs and targets including their reasoning belonging to different SDGs are referred to; these can all be found in detailed form in Appendix 1, where detailed information belonging to each target (X.Y) such as full-length formulation of target, reasoning, and references to the evidence supporting the reasoning is provided. Society Nine of the seventeen UN development goals regard society; Goals regarding society Figure 5: Shows 9 out of the total 17 SDG s Logos, goal 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 11, 16 and 17 (UN (2), 2018). The targets belonging to SDG:s of social character holds a total of 25 synergies and 8 tradeoffs divided between different targets. The interlinkages mainly regard poverty, vulnerability, productivity, and management of infrastructure and resources. SDG 1 calls for measures to end poverty in all forms and holds synergies with targets regarding decrease of civil poverty. Two synergies (1.1 and 1.2) relates to the general correlation of increased water access and increased economic living standard, supported by the fact that the desalination plant will provide millions of people with reliable access to drinking water. Target 1.4 calls for improvement in infrastructure for basic services, which the desalination project contributes to in several ways, both through water supply but also extension of the solar-driven power system in the region. The last synergy in SDG 1 regards strengthening of resilience for people exposed to climate change-related hazards (1.5). Through the shift of water source, from the rainfall-sensitive aquifers on land, to seawater the vulnerability to both people and their agricultural business is decreased. Target (1.1) and (1.2) holds both synergies and trade-offs, where the trade-offs concerns the effect of the price increase to the vulnerability and poverty. The trade-offs are supported by data showing there is a significant share of the Moroccan population living in poverty, and that the price for water is expected to be almost doubled as an effect of the implementation of the desalination plant. For SDG 2, which targets hunger, food security, nutrition and agriculture evidence for 6 synergies was found. The reasoning and evidence for target (2.1) and (2.2) are similar; both targets call for measures to end hunger and malnutrition, and to reach reliable access to food 17

19 all year round. The less weather-dependent seawater desalination can provide the agriculture with stable access to irrigation, which favors people and small farming businesses through predictable and high food production generating both food and income. (2.3) also contains a synergy related to the productivity of small-scale food producers, agreeing with the supported reasoning above. Target (2.4) contains both a synergy and a trade-off, concerning different parts of the target. Since the target is phrased as "By 2030, ensure sustainable food production systems and implement resilient agricultural practices that increase productivity and production, that help maintain ecosystems, that strengthen capacity for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters and that progressively improve land and soil quality" [Appendix 1, (2.4)] there are several sides of food production and agricultural practices involved. The synergy regards sustainable food production systems, by the solar-powered desalination that eases stress on aquifers and the trade-off concerns the help to maintain ecosystems, since the desalination plant might have impact on both marine life and nearby living birds. Evidence of one possible synergy was identified in SDG (2.5); the synergy regards the conservation of genetic diversity of seeds, plants and animals. The evidence supports the reasoning that reliable and continuous irrigation enables crop succession which in turn supports animal diversity. The last synergy of SDG 2 was found at (2.a) and regards a part of the target which calls for increased investments, through enhanced international cooperation, in rural infrastructure, agricultural research. Published evidence of investments in agricultural research for production capacity improvements with connection to the project supports the synergy. For SDG 3, "Ensure healthy lives and promote wellbeing for all at all ages", one synergy and one trade-off was identified, both regarding target (3.9). The target calls for measurements to reduce the number of illnesses and deaths due to polluted or contaminated air, soil and water. The synergy with the desalination project is identified through evidence of improvements in water quality due to the shift from uptake of groundwater to desalination of seawater as technology for the water supply. Also, desalination implicates use of chemicals and waste in form of brine, which if let out might affect water and soil quality and become a health risk for people exposed to the water and soil. For SDG 4, "Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life-long learning opportunities for all" no evidence of synergies nor trade-offs was identified. For SDG 5, "Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls" no evidence of synergies nor trade-offs was identified. SDG 7 regards energy, and aims to "Ensure access to affordable, reliable and sustainable energy for all". In total two synergies, for target (7.a) and (7.b) was identified. (7.a) regards enhancement of international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology. Evidence shows both that the execution of the desalination project has connections to Spain and that the project includes establishment of a new power line supplying solar electricity which is often referred to as a clean energy technology. (7.b) regards expansion of infrastructure and supply of modern and sustainable energy services in 18

20 developing countries. The target concerns Morocco since is it listed as a developing country by the UN (UN, 2014), and the new solar power lines funded by the ONEE in order to provide the plant with solar power was identified as contributions to expansion of modern and sustainable energy services in line with target (7.b). SDG 11 is focused on human settlements, and aims for them to be inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable. Goal 11 has a width of targets stretching through all three parts of sustainability, society, economy and environment. Due to the nature of the project and the complexity of the project it regards all parts, and six synergies and four trade-offs were identified. Goal 11 have one of the highest density of synergies and trade-off. The synergies regard access to basic services, sustainable urbanization, use of natural sources, and relations between urban and rural areas. The synergies concern to target (11.1), (11.3), (11.4), (11.5), (11.a), and (11.b) The project gives society a resilience against extreme weather and a reliable water source. People will not only gain from this by having access to drinking water, it also secures sustainable economic growth regarding agriculture and irrigation in the area. Although the water price is estimated to rise the willingness to be a part of the project is high among farmers but also, it s a reoccurring trade-off. Small farmers and the poorest in the area may not afford water produced by the desalination plant and/or can t afford to connect (farmers). The Trade-offs concern to target (11.1), (11.5), (11.6), and (11.a). SDG 16 aims to "Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels", and two synergies were identified. Target (16.1) calls for reductions in violence and violence-related deaths, and evidence of deaths and injuries related to uprisings due to lack of food and water in morocco supports the reasoning that access to water and thereby food might help avoid such accidents in the future. (16.7) aims to establish inclusive, representative and participatory decision-making, which the project seems to be able to contribute to, as a survey showed that two thirds of the local inhabitants were willing to invest (16.7) aims to establish inclusive, representative and participatory decision-making, which the project seems to be able to contribute to, as a survey showed that two thirds of the local inhabitants were willing to invest and participate in the desalination project. SDG 17 has a total of 19 targets, and four synergies and no trade-offs were identified. SDG 17 aims to "Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development". Three of the synergies (17.6), (17.16) and (17.17) are related to cooperation and participation of international actors and public partnerships, and the synergies are identified through the cooperation with a Spanish technology company and the Public Private Partnership the project involves. Another synergy, with target (17.11), relates to the exports of the region which mainly consists of fruits and vegetables. The synergy was identified through evidence of the positive effects on harvests that continuous irrigation has, and the following opportunities for increased export that the improved water supply implies. Synergies: 25/93 Trade-offs: 9/93 19

21 Economy Four of the seventeen UN development goals regard economy; Goals regarding economy Figure 6: Shows 4 out of the total 17 SDG s Logos, goal 8, 9, 10 and 12 (UN (2), 2018). The synergies identified between the desalination project and the SDGs belonging to the economy-category mainly regards targets linked to agriculture and tourism. Multiple synergies regard economic growth and production, along with sustainable management of natural resources. In total 11 synergies and 2 trade-offs were identified. SDG 8 calls for sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, and employment and decent work for all. Four synergies were identified between the project and the SDG 8 targets, which are targets regarding economic growth, productivity, resource efficiency in production and consumption, and employment. In Souss-Massa the economy depends heavily on the productivity of the agriculture, which in turn depends on water access for large-scale irrigation (Choukr-Allah, et al., 2017), and as mentioned in section 5.1 the agricultural sector accounts for a big share of the employment in the country as well as being of significant importance in terms of GDP (Schilling, et al., 2012). The high dependency of productive agriculture for the economy of the region, and the need for irrigation water forms synergies with target (8.1), (8.2) and (8.5). The targets call for sustained economic growth, productive and full employment, and economic productivity through technological upgrading. All the three synergeis mentioned above are based on the same reasoning and evidence; expected added value, employment and growth in the agricultural sector due to the implemenation of the seawater desalination. Target (8.4) calls for improved global resource efficiency in comsumption and production, and aims to decouple economic growth from deconstructing of the environment. The evidence from the reference show that the seawater desalination is implemented in order to use the global resource water more sustainable and efficient, at the same time as maintaining economic growth in the region. SDG 9 have evidence of synergies for four targets. SDG 9 calls for resilient infrastructure, inclusive and sustainable industrialization and innovation, and the synergies identified primarily regards reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure, sustainable industrialization, upgrading of existing infrastructure to sustainable, clean and environmentally sound technologies. According to Lahsini, 2017, the desalination project aims to secure resilient water-infrastructure for both drinking- and irrigation purpose, and implicates improvements on infrastructure in environmentally sound means by the new power lines providing the plant with solar power, which stands as evidence for a synergy with target (9.1) and (9.4). Also target (9.a) is related to the expansion of infrastructure, and calls for facilitated development of resilient infrastructure through international support, which is 20