HELIX-dagen 1/10 2009 Linköpings universitet FACKET IDAG OCH I FRAMTIDEN (1) Om framtidens arbetsliv och partsrelationer: INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS FORESIGHT 2025: SWEDEN COMPARED TO EU15, EU12 AND GLOBAL 7 COUNTRIES (Eurofound-projekt) (2) Det fackliga medlemsraset i Sverige under 2007 och 2008 (Arbetsmarknad & Arbetsliv nr 2 2009) Anders Kjellberg Sociologiska institutionen Lunds universitet
EXPERT FORESIGHT SURVEY An electronic expert survey was carried out by Eurofound in the autumn 2007. The questionnaire consisted of 16 questions to obtain respondents opinions about future industrial relations as regards actors, processes, outcomes and general trends in the industrial relations environment.
RESPONDENTS OF THE SURVEY Minimum target from each EU27 member state : 2 trade union representatives (4 in Sweden). 2 employer organisations representatives (4 in Sweden). 2 government representatives (2 in Sweden). 2 academic experts (3 in Sweden). In total 346 responses were received from 34 countries (of which 13 responses from Sweden)
List of EU15, EU12 and G7 countries EU15 countries (old member states): Austria (AT), Belgium (BE), Germany (DE), Denmark (DK), Greece (EL), Spain (ES), Finland (FI), France (FR), Ireland (IE), Italy (IT), Luxembourg (LU), Netherlands (NL), Portugal (PT), Sweden (SE) and United Kingdom (UK). EU12 countries (new member states): Bulgaria (BG), Czech Republic (CZ), Estonia (EE), Cyprus (CY), Hungary (HU), Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT), Malta (MT), Poland (PL), Romania (RO), Slovenia (SI) and Slovakia (SK). Global 7 (G7) countries: Australia (AUS), Brazil (BRZ), China (CHI), India (IND), Japan (JAP), South Africa (SAF) and the USA.
FORESIGHT ON WORKING LIFE TRENDS 2007-2025: SWEDEN Aspect of working life environment Liberalism in economic policy Decrease Remain the same 53.8 Individualism 30.8 Flexibility in working life 7.7 Job security 76.9 23.1 Social security 46.2 53.8 Self-employment 30.8 Atypical employment 15.4 15.4 Increase 46.2 69.2 92.3 69.2 53.8 Not applicable 15.4
FORESIGHT ON WORKING LIFE TRENDS 2007-2025: SWEDEN Aspect of working life environment Decrease Remain the same Increase Inequality in incomes 7.7 7.7 84.6 Equal opportunities in labour market Wage gap between men and women Public support to workers trade unions Public support to employer organisations European Commissions role as regulator of working life aspects 15.4 30.8 53.8 76.9 7.7 15.4 61.5 38.5 Not applicable 30.8 53.8 15.4 15.4 30.8 53.8
NB! Observe that the category remain the same is not included in the following diagrams, but just increase and decrease.
FORESIGHT ON LIBERALISM -40-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 PT EL BE IT ES LU FI AT NL DE FR SE DK IE UK BG RO CY PL MT LT LV CZ SI HU SK EE CHI IND JAP USA SAF AUS BRZ % of responses Increase Decrease
FORESIGHT ON INDIVIDUALISM -40-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 IT FI AT ES DE IE PT BE SE EL DK LU NL FR UK CY LV SI PL BG CZ MT LT HU SK EE RO CHI IND SAF JAP BRZ AUS USA % of responses Increase Decrease
FORESIGHT ON FLEXIBILITY 100 80 60 40 Increase Decrease 20 0 AT BE FR LU PT UK EL FI SE ES DK DE IT NL IE CZ SK EE LT RO LV SI PL BG CY MT HU AU IND JAP SAF US BRZ CHI -20 % of responses
FORESIGHT ON JOB SECURITY 60 40 20 0 DE NL PT BE SE AT EL FI LU FR UK IE ES DK IT BG CY EE MT SI PL CZ SK HU RO LV LT IND JAP US SAF BR CHI AU -20 Decrease Increase % of responses -40-60 -80-100
FORESIGHT ON INCOME INEQUALITY 100 80 60 40 20 0-20 Increase Decrease % of responses FR UK SE FI DE PT EL NL ES IE DK BE AT IT LU LV SK SI BG HU PL MT LT CY CZ EE RO CHI AUS IND JAP USA SAF BRZ -40-60 -80-100
FORESIGHT ON WAGE GAP BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN 60 40 20 0 NL FR IT IE BE LU SE DE AT DK ES PT UK EL FI CY EE RO SI SK BG MT PL LT CZ LV HU BRZ IND JAP USA AUS CHI SAF -20 Decrease Increase -40-60 -80-100 % of responses
FORESIGHT ON EUROPEAN COMMISSIONS ROLE 100 80 60 40 20 Increase Decrease 0 LU FR EL IT BE DE IE PT SE FI DK ES AT UK NL HU BG CY RO MT LT PL EE CZ LV SK SI CHI SAF US BRZ IND % of responses -20-40
TRADE UNION DENSITY 2004 AND 2025 IN SWEDEN (facklig organisationsgrad) * 2004 including full-time students working part-time ** excluding full-time students working part-time 2004 2025 Average Median Minimum Maximum 2025 compared to 2004 77* 79** 61 63** 65 20 77-16 -16
TRADE UNION DENSITY 2004 AND 2025 90 80 2004 2025 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 DK FI SE BE LU IT AT IE UK DE ES EL NL PT FR CY MT SI LT CZ LV RO SK EE BG PL HU CHI SAF* AUS BRZ** JAP USA IND*** Trade union density (%)
EXPECTED CHANGES IN TRADE UNION DENSITY. 2025 COMPARED TO 2004 20 15 10 5 0-5 -10 Change in percentage points, 2025 compared to 2004 SE DK IE LU FI NL AT BE UK PT EL IT DE FR ES MT CY SI HU SK RO BG PL EE CZ LV LT CHI JAP USA AUS BRZ SAF IND -15-20
Facklig organisationsgrad i 18 länder 1980-2008 1980 1990 1993 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sverige 78 / 81 85 81 79 78 77 73 71 Finland 84 76 72 71 71 71 Danmark 75 76 77 75 72 72 69 70 Belgien 54 54 55 49 53 53 54 53 Norge 57 57 57 53 53 53 53 52 Irland 62 57 - /39 36 34 33 32 Österrike 57 47 43 37 34 33 32 Italien 50 39 38 34 34 33 33 33 Kanada 35 35 36 32 31 31 30 30 Storbritannien 52 38 35 30 29 29 28 28 27 Australien 49 41 38 25 23 22 20 19 Tyskland 35 33 / 33 25 21 18 Nederländ 35 24 26 23 21 21 20 20 Japan 31 25 24 21 19 19 18 18 18 Spanien 8 13 18 17 16 15 15 Polen 65 28 17 20 21 23 18 16 16 USA 23 16 16 13 13 12 12 12 12 Frankrike 18 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 Källa: Anders Kjellberg Industrial Relations Foresight 2025 for Sweden (Lund 2009) s 11
Facklig organisationsgrad i Sverige 1990-2008 2006-2007- 2006- Ålder 1990 1993 2000 2006 2007 2008 2007 2008 2008 16-24 62 69 52 46 40 36-6 -4-10 25-29 78 81 74 68 64 61-4 -3-7 16-29 69 76 64 58 53 49-5 -4-9 30-44 85 86 82 77 74 72-3 -2-5 45-64 88 89 88 85 82 81-3 -1-4 16-64 81 85 81 77 73 71-4 -2-6 Exkl. heltidsstuderande som arbetar vid sidan om studierna Källa: Anders Kjellberg Det fackliga medlemsraset under 2007 och 2008 Arbetsmarknad & Arbetsliv nr 2 2009
Facklig organisationsgrad i Sverige 2007+2008 - - -5.73-6 2008 71 71.16-2.29-2 2007 73 73.45-3.44-3 2006 77 76.89-0.9-1 2005 78 77.8-0.8-1 2004 79 78.6-1.2-1 2003 80 79.8 +0.1 0 2002 80 79.7 0.0 0 2001 80 79.7-0.9-1 2000 81 80.6-1.2-1 1999 82 81.8 Källa: Anders Kjellberg Arbetsmarknad & Arbetsliv nr 2 2009
Orsaker till fallande facklig organisationsgrad på lång sikt (1) Attitydförändring: en mer kritiskt prövande inställning till fackligt medlemskap än tidigare (kostnaden vägs mot nyttan) Bristande kunskaper hos ungdomar om vad en fackförening eller ett kollektivavtal är Sjunkande andel sysselsatta inom industri och offentlig sektor ökande andel i privata tjänstenäringar Arbetsstyrkans uppsplittring genom outsourcing (tillväxt av företagsnära tjänster mm), inhyrning (bemanningsföretag), fast och tidsbegränsat anställda, anlitande av konsulter, arbete på udda arbetstider mm
Orsaker till fallande facklig organisationsgrad på lång sikt (2) Nya branscher och företag till följd av avregleringar och privatiseringar med en inte sällan negativ inställning till fack och kollektivavtal från arbetsgivarens sida samt bristande fackliga traditioner Snål bemanning (lean production) till följd av skärpt konkurrens (inkl. ökad press på underleverantörer) och besparings- och effektiviseringskrav i offentlig sektor Fackklubbarnas minskade täckningsgrad till följd av bl a ovanstående faktorer. På arbetsplatser utan fack saknas direktkontakt med medlemmarna och inte så mycket av resultat finns att uppvisa
Det fackliga medlemsraset 2007 och 2008 Huvudförklaring: förändringarna av a-kassans finansiering, närmare bestämt den kraftigt höjda och senare tilltagande differentieringen av a-kasseavgiften 2007 och början av 2008: högkonjunktur med följd att somliga anser sig klara sig bra utan fackets hjälp Kort sagt: ökad kostnad (medlemskap i a-kassa + fack) men oförändrad nytta (kan framstå som mindre under högkonjunkturen)
Förändring av antalet fackmedlemmar i Sverige under åren 2006, 2007 och 2008 Fackmedlemmar Summa 2006 2007 2008 2007+ 2008 LO -1% -8% -4% -11% TCO -1% -5% -2% -7% Saco +1% -1% +2% +1% Övriga -1% -4% +4% 0% Samtliga -1% -6% -2% -8%
Medlemsutveckling i fackliga a-kassor i Sverige under åren 2006, 2007 och 2008 Medl. i fackliga a-kassor Summa 2006 2007 2008 2007+ 2008 LO -11% -3% -14% TCO -11% -2% -13% AEA -5% +3% -2% Övriga -11% -1% -12% Samtliga -1% -10% -2% -11%
Avgifter till ett urval fackliga a-kassor 2006-09 (avser fackmedlemmar) 31/12 1/1 1/10 31/12 2006 2007 2009 2006 1/10 2009 Lärarnas (TCO) 97 247 90-7 Akademikernas AEA 90 240 90 0 Finans&Försäkr 86 244 90 +4 (TCO) ST (TCO) 84 315 98 +12 SKTF (TCO) 99 331 139 +40 Elektrikerna (LO) 92 326 155 +63 HTF (TCO)/Unionen 106 353 214 +108 Sif (TCO)/Unionen 90 331 214 +124 Pappers (LO) 105 350 239 +134 /forts./
Avgifter till ett urval fackliga a-kassor 2006-09 /forts/ 31/12 1/1 1/10 31/12 2006 2006 2007 2009 1/10 2009 Kommunal (LO) 100 340 215* +115 Livs (LO) 102 359 287 +185 SEKO (LO) 104 349 296 +192 Transport (LO) 106 361 306 +200 Fastighets (LO) 100 351 325 +225 Handels (LO) 95 346 335 +240 IF Metall (LO) 93 339 384 +291 Musiker (LO) 115 415 415 +300 Teater (TCO) 99 375 405 +306 Byggnads (LO) 116 366 425 +309 Grafiska (LO) / GS 110 364 420 +310 Skogsträ (LO) / GS 96 365 420 +324 Hotell & Rest (LO) 97 361 430 +333 * Avgiften sänktes med 55 kr (från 270 krtill 215 kr) 1/10 2009
A-kasseavgifter september (och oktober) 2009 för civilingenjör i Sveriges Ingenjörer (Saco), industritjänsteman i Unionen (TCO) och IF- Metallare (LO)
Density of employers associations in Sweden 1995-2008 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 Private 77 74 78 77 80 80 Public 100 100 100 100 100 100 All 86 83 85 84 86 85 SAF/SN* 65 62 64 64 66 67 Note: Share of employees (blue-collar + white-collar workers) employed by employers affiliated to employers organisations at the end of each year. * Share of private sector employees Source: Anders Kjellberg Industrial Relations Foresight 2025 for Sweden (Lund 2009) p. 25
Facklig organisationsgrad i Sverige Sektor 1993 2006 2007 2008 Privat 78 71 68 65* Offentlig 94 88 86 84 Alla 85 77 73 71 * Jämför arbetsgivarnas 80% (se föregående tabell) Källa: Anders Kjellberg Det fackliga medlemsraset under 2007 och 2008 Arbetsmarknad & Arbetsliv nr 2 2009
COLLECTIVE BARGAINING COVERAGE RATE 2004 AND 2025: SWEDEN 2025 2004 Average Median Minimum Maximum 2025 compared to 2004 92 81 85 50 94-11
COLLECTIVE BARGAINING COVERAGE RATE. 2004 AND 2025 100 90 2004 2025 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 BE AT FR SE DK PT FI ES IT NL** EL LU DE IE* UK SI CY RO* MT CZ HU SK PL LV LT BG* EE BRZ* AUS CHI SAF* USA JAP IND Collective bargaining coverage rate (%)
FORESIGHT ON COLLECTIVE BARGAINING COVERAGE RATES. 2025 COMPARED TO 2004 30 20 10 0-10 Change in percentage points, 2005 compared to 2004 PT FI SE ES DE DK AT EL BE IT FR NL UK LU SI MT CY SK HU PL CZ EE LV LT AUS JAP USA IND CHI -20-30
Share of employees (%) in Sweden covered by collective agreements Foresight Sector 1995 2005 2007 2025 Private 90 90 87 (77) Public 100 100 100 100 All 94 94 91 81 Source: Anders Kjellberg Industrial Relations Foresight 2025 for Sweden (Lund 2009) p. 26
FORESIGHT ON COLLECTIVE BARGAINING LEVELS IN 2025: SWEDEN Bargaining level Decrease Remain the same Increase Not applicable International level 15.4 76.9 7.7 National level (bipartite) 46.2 38.5 7.7 7.7 Sector/branch level 15.4 61.5 23.1 Enterprise level 15.4 23.1 61.5
Working conditions Wages Minimum wages Working time Foresight on main way of regulation in 2025 (Sweden) Year Individual contracts Workplace/ enterprise level collective agreements Sectoral/ industry level collective agreements National level collective agreements 2007 7.7 84.6 7.7 2025 15.4 30.8 53.8 2007 7.7 76.8 15.4 National legislation 2025 7.7 46.2 38.5 2007 7.7 38.5 15.4 38.5 International agreements (incl. EU directives) 2025 7.7 15.4 30.8 30.8 15.4
Foresight on dominant level of collective bargaining in 2025 (Sweden) National level Sector/ branch level State/ regional level Enterprise level 76.9 7.7 15.4 No collective agreements
FORESIGHT ON DOMINANT COLLECTIVE BARGAINING LEVEL GOVERNMENT TRADE UNIONS EMPLOYERS 2004 2025 FI, IE SI National level National level IE AT, BE, DK, DE*, EL, IT, LU, NL, PT, ES, SE, FR** CY, SK, BRZ*, SAF** Sectoral level Sectoral level AT, BE, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, IT, NL, PT, SE, BG EE, LT, SI BRZ, SAF, USA UK UK, EL CZ, EE, HU, LV, LT, MT, PL, AUS, CHI, IND, JAP, USA Company level Company level CZ, CY, HU, MT, PL, RO, SK AUS, CHI, IND, JAP
FORESIGHT ON IMPACTS OF SOCIAL PARTNERS AT THE DIFFERENT NEGOTIATIONS LEVELS IN 2025: SWEDEN Negotiation level Decrease Remain the same International level (e.g. European Union level) Increase Trade unions 7.7 15.4 69.2 Employer organisations 7.7 23.1 61.5 National level Trade unions 53.8 30.8 7.7 Employer organisations 38.5 46.2 7.7 No answer Government 23.1 53.8 6.7 7.7
FORESIGHT ON IMPACTS OF SOCIAL PARTNERS AT THE DIFFERENT NEGOTIATIONS LEVELS IN 2025: SWEDEN Negotiation level Sector/branch level Decrease Remain the same Increase Trade unions 23.1 38.5 38.5 Employer organisations 23.1 38.5 38.5 No answer Government 23.1 46.2 7.7 Enterprise level Trade unions 30.8 38.5 30.8 Employer organisations 46.2 30.8 23.1
FORESIGHT ON GOVERNMENT S ROLE AS LEGISLATOR IN INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS IN 2025: SWEDEN Working conditions Decrease Remain the same Increase Not applicable Wages 76.6 7.7 15.4 Minimum wages 53.8 38.5 7.7 Working time 23.1 69.2 7.7 No answer Flexible employment arrangement (telework, temporary agency work etc.) Health and safety issues 15.4 61.5 23.1 15.4 61.5 23.1
Skrifter Anders Kjellberg 2009 (de båda sistnämnda nedladdningsbara från min hemsida) Det fackliga medlemsraset i Sverige under 2007 och 2008 Arbetsmarknad & Arbetsliv nr 2 2009 sid 11-28. "The Swedish Model of Industrial Relations: Self-Regulation and Combined Centralisation-Decentralisation" i Craig Phelan (red) Trade Unionism since 1945: Towards a Global History Volume 1. Oxford: Peter Lang. The Swedish Ghent system and trade unions under pressure Transfer nr 3-4 2009 (under publicering) Industrial Relations Foresight 2025: Sweden Compared to EU15, EU 12 and Global 7 countries. Department of Sociology, Lund University. Industrial Relations Foresight 2025 for Sweden: Presentation of Results and Comments. Department of Sociology, Lund University.
Kontaktuppgifter Anders Kjellberg Sociologiska institutionen Box 114 221 00 Lund Tel: 046-222 88 47 E-post: anders.kjellberg@soc.lu.se Hemsida: http://itservice2.sam.lu.se/personal_soc/index.php?id= 93