Trading Strategy Morgonmötet 22 oktober 2012 Martin Enlund, +46 (0)8-46 346 33, maen12@handelsbanken.se
Nyheter Spanien: Rajoys parti gick fram i Galicien, backade i Baskien (FT) Nästa delstatsval: Katalonien, november 25 Enig skuggdirektion vill sänka räntan till 1% (DI/SvD) LO-ekonomer: regeringen bör hjälpa ingves att sänka räntan (SvD) Upp till SEK60mdr ska investeras i stamnätet Svenska Kraftnät (DI) Primary dealers förväntar sig mer QE innan årsskiftet (Bloomberg) Merkel hotar ställa in EU-toppmöte om budget pga Camerons uttalande att lägga in veto mot budgetökningar (FT) 2
Det hände förra veckan Data (vs förväntningar) USA Bättre: retail sales, KPI, IP, housing starts, Philly Fed Sämre: NY Fed I linje: lager, NAHB, leading indicators, existing home sales EMU Bättre: ZEW, handelsbalans Lägre: HIKP Centralbanker mm Rapportsäsongen i USA Bara 60% har överträffat vinstförväntningarna. Detta är lägre än normalt. Riksbankens Ingves rörde om i räntegrytan Sverige I linje: arbetslöshet Kina Bättre: IP, detaljhandel I linje: BNP 3
USA: detaljhandelns omsättning bättre än väntat 4
USA: jobless claims steg oväntat kraftigt Uppgång till 388k vs väntade 365k. Säsongsrensningar ställer till det 5
Sverige: arbetslöshet högre än prognos Arbetslöshet 3mma 0,06 p.p. högre än Riksbankens prognos 6
Sverige: Riksbankens Ingves rörde om i grytan Hög skuldsättning gör ekonomin skör, vilket kan få förödande konsekvenser. Ytterligare stimulanser måste vägas mot ökade risker, eftersom ännu lägre räntor under ännu längre tid skulle öka skuldsättningen ytterligare. Ju mindre som görs på annat håll för att minska riskerna med hög skuldsättning, desto mer faller på penningpolitiken. Om Riksbanken inte tar hänsyn till skuldsättningen hos hushåll och företag kan dessa konsekvenser bli mycket allvarliga. Vi bör därför hålla räntan på en nivå som gör att vi kan nå inflationsmålet och stabilisera sysselsättningen i ett långsiktigt perspektiv och med hänsyn till riskerna för finansiella obalanser. Källa: SvD 7
S&P500: 60% har överträffat vinstförväntningarna 75 (Efter 117 rapporter) 70 65 60 55 Av erage Oct-2012 8 0 0=Alcoas rapport 6 12 18 24 30 Källor: Bloomberg, Handelsbanken Capital Markets
Marknaden Förra veckan Börser: högre men svajigt Räntor: högre, brantning FX: svagare USD Råvarupriser: lägre Marknadsinformation Röda markeringar = rörelse större än 1 standardavvikelse % vs 16:15, % vs 16:15, % vs 1 Latest (19-okt) (12-okt) month ago EUR/USD 1.3063 0.28 0.69 1.02 USD/JPY 79.62 0.38 1.56 2.27 GBP/USD 1.6032 0.01-0.27-1.15 EUR/GBP 0.8148 0.27 0.95 2.19 EUR/CHF 1.20935 0.07 0.01-0.06 EUR/NOK 7.3782-0.07-0.13-0.68 USD/NOK 5.6501-0.32-0.78-1.66 EUR/SEK 8.5742 0.05-1.18 1.09 USD/SEK 6.5641-0.23-1.85 0.07 AUD/USD 1.033-0.05 0.84-0.91 AUD/JPY 82.243 0.34 2.39 1.33 USD/CAD 0.9922 0.09 1.32 1.38 NZD/USD 0.8186 0.12-0.15-0.52 Sedan fredag 16:15 9 Börser: S&P500-terminen lägre, rött i Asien Räntor: ett par punkter lägre FX: lugnt Råvarupriser: lägre S&P500 future 1428.8-1.06-0.28-2.62 OMXS30 1064.6-0.45 0.27-3.20 Oil prices (Brent) 110.8-1.71-3.79-0.58 Gold spot 1726.0-0.50-2.17-2.87 Silver spot 32.3-0.68-4.41-5.09 bp vs 16:15, bp vs 16:15, bp vs 1 Latest (19-okt) (12-okt) month ago US 2y 0.30 0 4 4 US 10y 1.79-1 12 3 US 30y 2.96-2 12 2 German 2y 0.11 0 7 4 German 10y 1.59-1 13-3 Sw eden 2y 0.82 1 15 5 Sw eden 10y 1.65-1 17 7 Itraxx Europe 121 3-8 -5 Itraxx Senior Financials 163 4-18 -14
Förra veckan: stort genomslag i prissättningen av Ingves 10 Meeting Market Market (21-Oct) Riksbank, Sep Market vs Riksbank Oct-12 1.16 1.07 1.25-0.09 Dec-12 1.04 0.96 1.25-0.21 Feb-13 0.89 0.83 1.25-0.36 Apr-13 0.89 0.83 1.25-0.36 Jul-13 0.89 0.83 1.34-0.45 Sep-13 0.89 0.84 1.47-0.57 Oct-13 0.90 0.84 1.57-0.66 Dec-13 0.92 0.86 1.69-0.76 Feb-14 0.94 0.88 1.81-0.86 Apr-14 0.99 0.92 1.97-0.98 Jul-14 1.02 0.96 2.11-1.09 Sources: Bloomberg, Handelsbanken Capital Market
Förra veckan: Spanien tightare 11
Förra veckan: krediter började starkt, slutade surt 12
Förra veckan: Svensk 5y bostad följde SNRFIN 13
Förra veckan: implicita fixingspreadar isär 14
S&P500-terminen 1.1% lägre Fed ECB Viktiga studsar! 15
USA 10y: 1-2bp lägre 16
EUR/SEK: marginellt högre sedan i fredags Ingves i SvD Protokollet Uppåttrenden intakt än så länge 17
Det händer i veckan USA Richmond Fed (tisdag) Markit PMI, New home sales (onsdag) Durable goods orders, pending home sales, Kansas Fed (torsdag) BNP, UMich Cons. Conf (fredag) EMU INSEE (tisdag) PMI, IFO (onsdag) M3 (torsdag) Sverige Lånebehov (tisdag) Consumer Conf., Business Conf. (tor) Household lending (torsdag) Kina PMI (HSBC) (torsdag) USA:s rapportsäsong Caterpillar, TI, Yahoo (måndag), 3M (tisdag), Kimberly-Clark, Motorola (onsdag), Coca- Cola, Sprint (torsdag), Merck (fredag) Sveriges rapportsäsong Scania (måndag), Swedbank, Alfa Laval (tisdag), Nordea, Volvo, SSAB, Atlas Copco (onsdag), ABB, SEB, Sandvik, Boliden, AstraZeneca (torsdag), Ericsson (fredag) Riksbankens räntebeslut (torsdag) FOMC räntebeslut (onsdag) Emissioner Spanien växlar (tisdag) Italien växlar (fredag) Riksgälden obligationsutbyte (måndag, tisdag) Riksgälden växlar (onsdag) Riksgälden linker 3107 (torsdag) 18
USA: FOMC räntebeslut (onsdag) Statement Fed håller penningpolitiken oförändrad: modest tillväxt, men kanske marginellt mer hökigt kring inflationen pga högre spot Avslöjas först i protokollet Fed kommer att diskutera en övergång till numeriska mål (arbetslöshet under X%) istället för kalenderindikationer (mid-2015) Diskussioner väntas även kring en gemensam prognos 19
USA: BNP, Q3 (fredag) BNP väntas på +1.8% (från 1.3%) Percentage e points contribution qoqar 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 Konsumtion väntas på +1.8% (från 1.5%) 20 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 10 11 12 Net exports Nonresidential investment Residential investment Inventories PCE Government GDP growth Källa: Ecowin
USA: Consumer confidence UMich (fredag) Consumer confidence väntas dala något, till 82.6 från 83.1 21
EMU: PMI väntas stiga (onsdag) Composite väntas stiga till 46.4 från 46.1 Manufacturing väntas på 46.5 från 46.1 Services på 46.3 från 46.1 22
Sverige: KI-barometern (onsdag) Cons. conf väntas på 1.5 från 2.0 Manuf. conf väntas på -12 från -10 Barometerindikatorn väntas på 94.3 från 95.8 23
Sverige: Riksbanken (torsdag) Sänk! 13 av 14 spår oförändrad ränta BNP: Inflation: KPI: lägre lägre lägre Arbetslöshet: högre Sänk ej! Skuldkris: Kronan: Spreadar: Belåning: lättnad? svagare tightare sidledes 24
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