Adaptive Management for Forestry

Transkript

1 Adaptive Management for Forestry Can Swedish forestry meet challenges from climate change? Katarina Heissenberger Master s Thesis 2007:6

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3 Adaptive Management for Forestry: Can Swedish forestry meet challenges from climate change? Katarina Heissenberger Master s Thesis 2007:6 Supervisor: Anne-Sophie Crépin Research Associate at the Beijer International Institute for Ecological Economics The Royal Swedish Academy of Science Co-supervisor: Åsa Vifell Ph Dr. Political Science Stockholm Centre for Organizational Research Centre for Transdisciplinary Environmental Research, CTM Stockholm University

4 This thesis is written to fulfil the requirements of the Master s Programme: a transdisciplinary programme held by the Centre for Transdisciplinary Environmental Research, CTM, at Stockholm University. The one-year programme consists of four courses and the writing of a Master s thesis on a subject related to at least one of the courses. 1. Philosophy of Sustainability Science Addresses the difficulties and opportunities in transdisciplinary environmental research. In lectures and seminars participants discuss methodological and epistemological issues such as explanations, causality, systems borders, and objectivity. Held by the Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology Course leaders: Agr.Dr Thomas Hahn and Dr. Miriam Huitric 2. Natural Resource Management and Ecosystem Resilience Focuses on ecosystem capacity to generate life-supporting services, how different management approaches can affect this capacity, as well as which constraints and opportunities are offered by globalisation. Held by the Department of Systems Ecology Course leaders: Prof. Thomas Elmqvist, Dr. Jakob Lundberg and Henrik Ernston 3. Ecosystem Management: Collaboration in Networks and Organisations Investigates the social capacity to develop adaptive governance including arenas for collaboration and conflict resolution. Held by the Centre for Transdisciplinary Environmental Research Course leaders: AgrDr. Thomas Hahn and Dr. Fiona Miller 4. International Governance of Natural Resource Management Uses a macro-perspective on governance. The actors and social-ecological drivers of international regimes are analysed, using case studies that provide a historical and institutional context. Legal as well as normative perspectives are discussed. Held by the Department of Economic History Course leader: Dr. Åsa Vifell More information on the programme is available at About The Centre for Transdisciplinary Environmental Research (CTM): CTM aims to catalyse environmental research and promote environmental education across the faculties. CTM is part of Stockholm University and complements the activities of the different academic departments. CTM is also in close cooperation with other Stockholm-based organisations and institutes conducting research in the environmental and sustainable development field. CTM turns science into knowledge by spreading information about natural resources and environmental issues. We also offer seminars and courses on environmental and sustainable development issues. Homepage:

5 Abstract This study aims to assess the capacity of a linked social-ecological system to adapt to future changes of the climate. It focuses on Swedish boreal forest ecosystems and how they are managed for commercial forestry. Building on resilience thinking and theories on adaptive management, the study estimates the risk perception of actors in forestry management and assesses how forestry managers perceive their capacity to adapt to climate change. Finally, the actual capacity of the forest sector to adapt is investigated. The assessment of actual adaptive capacity is based on scientific suggestions for adaptive measures and a set of supporting and eroding factors such as social capital, the potential for cooperation and the ability to influence and access research. The study uses primary data collected through interviews with key persons in Swedish forestry and secondary data based on a review of relevant scientific reports. The study concludes that actors in Swedish forestry have a good perception of risks and a positive approach to opportunities that climate change might bring, although they perceive their ability to mitigate and meet climate change effects as very limited, possibly because scientific impact assessments do not reflect all considerations that management has to make. At the same time, the actual capacity of the sector to adapt is found to be good due to high social capital, many available forums for discussion and collaboration, and close connections to research which enable knowledge generation and experimentation. However, the adaptive capacity is reduced by several eroding factors. Management actors perceive direct effects of climate change to be highly uncertain. This results in a notion of high risk being associated with major changes in management practices and it prevents action. A tradition of strong resistance to foreign species also erodes the adaptive capacity in the sector. Another eroding factor is that many indirect effects which can be essential for making use of climate changes are not assessed. In order to know what options are available for adaptation, impacts from use of foreign species and alternative practices for regeneration must be thoroughly assessed. We are facing a changing climate and Swedish forestry has a good capacity to meet these challenges. This capacity can be strengthened by a) holistic, transdisciplinary assessments that address eroding factors and investigate indirect effects on price and quality of forest products, b) assuring the availability of competent workforces, and c) mobilising societal and public support for new objectives for forestry. Keywords: Adaptive capacity, Risk perception, Forestry management, Sweden 1

6 Sammanfattning Denna studie har som syfte att uppskatta kapaciteten hos ett sammanlänkat socialt ekologiskt system att anpassa sig till framtida klimatförändringar. Det är en fallstudie över Boreala skogsekosystem i Sverige och över hur de brukas i kommersiellt syfte. Resonemanget bygger på resilienstänkande och teorier om anpassningsbar förvaltning av naturresurser. Studien undersöker hur aktörer inom svenskt skogsbruk uppfattar risker och utmaningar till följd av klimateffekter, samt vad dessa aktörer uppfattar att de har för kapacitet att anpassa sig till sådana effekter. Slutligen görs ett försök att bedöma vad svenskt skogsbruk har för faktisk kapacitet till anpassning. Denna bedömning baseras på förslag till anpassningsåtgärder från vetenskapliga studier, samt på faktorer som stärker eller försvagar förmågan att anpassa sig, såsom socialt kapital, möjligheten att samarbeta och att påverka och få tillgång till samtida forskning. Primärdata är hämtad från intervjuer med nyckelpersoner inom svenskt skogsbruk, sekundärdata är sammanställd från forskningsrapporter i ämnet. Slutsatsen är att aktörer inom svenskt skogsbruk har en god riskmedvetenhet och en positiv inställning till möjligheterna med ett annorlunda klimat, men att de anser sig ha begränsade möjligheter att agera för att möta dessa risker. Analysen antyder att detta beror på att de vetenskapliga studier av effekter från klimatförändringar som hittills sammanställts inte avspeglar de avvägningar och hänsynstaganden som aktörer inom skogsbruket måste göra. Trots detta är den faktiska förmågan att anpassa sig god eftersom det finns ett starkt socialt kapital, många forum för diskussion och samarbete och en väletablerad kontaktyta gentemot forskarvärlden som stärker möjligheten att ta del av och påverka ny kunskap. Förmågan till anpassning försvagas dock av ett antal faktorer. Aktörerna inom skogsbruket uppfattar direkta effekter av klimatförändringar som väldigt osäkra och förknippar ändringar av brukningsmetoder med stora risker. En tradition av starkt motstånd mot främmande trädslag bidrar också till att undergräva kapaciteten till anpassning. Denna kapacitet försvagas också av att flera indirekta effekter, som kan vara avgörande för möjligheterna att dra nytta av klimatförändringar, inte har utretts. För att veta vilka valmöjligheter som finns måste användning av främmande trädslag och nya föryngringsmetoder utredas noga. Sverige står inför förändringar i klimatet och skogsnäringens goda förutsättningar att anpassa sig till detta kan stärkas ytterligare genom a) tvärvetenskapliga analyser som utreder försvagande faktorer och indirekta effekter på pris och kvalitet för skogsprodukter, b) att säkra tillgången till kunnig arbetskraft och c) att skapa mål för framtida skogsbruk mål som har starkt stöd hos både allmänhet och samhälle. 2

7 Acknowledgements I want to start by giving thanks to my supervisors for providing invaluable support, creative discussions and constructive feedback. Your experiences and insights have helped me to improve my work a lot. Further, I would not have been able to conduct this study without the representatives from Södra, Holmen Skog AB, Sveaskog AB, SCA Skog AB, Bergvik Skog AB and Skogsägarna Norrskog, sharing their knowledge and valuable time with me. My peer group has offered the best moral support and I owe you all much gratitude for encouraging me to work hard. I also want to thank teachers, administrative staff, guest lecturers and my fellow students at CTM for widening my perspectives and challenging my way of thinking. I know that my quality time has been heavily reduced lately and therefore my family and friends deserve special thanks for thoughtful inputs, patience and fantastic support. Thank you all, Katarina Heissenberger Stockholm, 28 th of May,

8 Content 1. Introduction Theoretical Framework Methods and Material Case study approach and case study boundaries Data sources Interviews as primary sources of data Literature review Analytical variables Results The scientific impact assessment How will climate change affect Swedish boreal forests and the associated forestry management? Temperature, climate zones and seasonal variability Precipitation and evaporation Availability of nutrients Growth and productivity Vegetation zones and species composition Hazards and pathogens Risk Perception Are management actors aware of these challenges? Direct effects Indirect effects Perceived adaptive capacity Actual adaptive capacity Scientific suggestions for adaptive measures Supporting and eroding factors for adaptation Summary of results Analysis and Discussion Conclusions References Appendix

9 Acronyms CO 2 FAR FSC ha IPCC KSLA PEFC SNF SES Skogforsk SLU SMHI WWF Carbon dioxide Fourth Assessment Report Forestry Stewardship Council hectare Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture and Forestry (Kungliga Skogs- och Lantbruksakademien) Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification schemes Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (Naturskyddsföreningen) Social-ecological System Forestry Research Institute of Sweden Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (Sveriges meteorologiska och hydrologiska institut) World Wide Fund for Nature 5

10 1. Introduction The climate change phenomenon has gained much attention lately and research concerning how it will affect nature and society blossoms. Policy makers and actors in natural resource management demand assessments of what to do to meet challenges from climate change. But, even if the picture of what to do is getting clearer, is it possible to adapt to such major changes? This study will seek answers to that question by studying natural resource management in Swedish forestry. The climatic system is shaped by interactions between many different factors such as solar activity (Bernes 2003) and geologic, hydrologic and atmospheric processes (Bogren et al 2006). Long-term climate conditions have been known to shift rather slowly (Bernes 2003) and climate is a variable capable of changing the conditions of ecosystems and the benefits for humans that ecosystems can generate, i.e. ecosystem services (Walker and Salt 2006). Our lifestyles and technological development cause side effects that spill over to surrounding ecosystems and global processes (IPCC 2007). Researchers try to understand the relationships between social activities and climate change and predict how future climate will be in relation to human development (Bogren et al 2006). According to The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, climate change is any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC 2007:2). The IPCC clearly states that human activities have accelerated the changes in climate and that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC 2007:4). According to IPCC, most of this warming effect is very likely a result of an increase in emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ). These emissions are in turn expected to trigger warmer temperatures, especially in northern parts of the world. The temperatures will continue to rise and effects will be seen even if impacts from human activities are reduced (IPCC 2007). Changes in the climatic system in turn affect ecosystems, and boreal forests are likely to be affected in several ways. Many functions in boreal tree species are temperature dependant. In Norway spruce, for example, the range of growing and dormant seasons, the time for 6

11 hardening and dehardening in plant tissue, pollination and budburst depend on temperature patterns (KSLA 2004). Biotic and abiotic disturbances as well as the pronounced seasonal variability in Sweden control dynamics and basic functions in boreal forests. But, the composition of tree species in managed boreal forests is not determined by climate factors as much as it is a product of selection processes, management practices and disturbances such as browsing pressure from large herbivores (KSLA 2004). The climatic and societal patterns are highly connected and affect each other. Because of this, both aspects have to be addressed in order to understand climate change impacts and how they challenge societies. Forestry has a long tradition in Sweden. Out of the Swedish land area 1, 22.9 million ha are covered by forest (Skogsstyrelsen online, ), primarily temperate and boreal coniferous forest (KSLA 2001). Norway spruce (Picea abies), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Birch (Betula pendula) are the most important tree species (KSLA 2001). Sweden has a large latitude range 2 (Gleerups 1995) and due to this, several of these boreal tree species have their southern, northern and altitude dependant range limits within the country borders (KSLA 2004). A dependence on forest products is reflected in local and national economy in Sweden. Almost people are employed in the Swedish forest industry (SCB 2007 b) and the economic value of exports of wood and forest industry products is substantial 3 (SCB 2007 c). However, Swedish forests are also highly valued by the public who has a genuine right to access and undertake recreational activities in forests (KSLA 2001). Still, it is only a fraction of the total Swedish forest area that has never been used for forestry (WWF online, ). According to a study by Fridman (1999), 2.8% of forests in Sweden are protected from forest production. From an international perspective this is not a high percentage, and the strategy for conservation is to a large extent based on voluntary measures (WWF online, ). 1 The total land area of Sweden is 41.1 million ha (KSLA 2001) and close to 22 million ha (SCB 2007 a), or 57 % of Sweden s total land area is productive forest land (KSLA 2001). 2 Between 55 o N and 69 o N latitude 3 12% of the total Swedish export value during

12 Forest ownership in Sweden is a patchwork of actors, but a majority of the forests are in private possession 4. In year 2000, there were forest owners and forest companies (Skogsstyrelsen online, ). Many of the small-scale forest owners are members of one of four national member organisations for single private forest owners. Södra and Skogsägarna Norrskog 5 are two of these organisations whose views will be presented in this study (Södra, Skogsägarna Norrskog, online ). Four of the largest forest companies, state and private owned, are also included in the study. Sveaskog AB, SCA Skog AB, Bergvik Skog AB and Holmen Skog AB together own and manage almost 1/3 of the Swedish forest 6 (Skogsstyrelsen online, ). Climate change has a potential to affect nature as well as societies. Scheffer et al (2003) describe it as a new problem that has not been experienced before. Because of this, they argue, there is no memory within the social-ecological system of how to handle climate change. They also claim that new problems often are highly uncertain, complex and associated with high risk. Even if the future climate is uncertain, forest owners already try to assess associated risks and act on that information (Blennow and Sallnäs 2002). In a study from 1999, among single private forest owners in Sweden, 11% claimed to have changed management practices because of the possibility of future climate changes (Blennow and Sallnäs 2002). IPCC (2001) stresses that it is crucial to understand what capacity there is within a system to adapt to and make use of changes, in order to evaluate benefits, costs and risks of climate change. Kellomäki et al (2005) consider it important to be able to influence the timing and direction of adaptation processes as a way to integrate adaptation strategies with management objectives. Several scholars point to the need of further research on risk perception by actors in natural resource management and how this affects the actual management of forests in response to complex problems (Grothmann and Patt 2005, Folke et al 2002, Blennow and Sallnäs 2002, KSLA 2004). 4 Approximately 51% are owned by single private owners, 24% by private companies and 18% by the government 5 Södra and Skogsägarna Norrskog have and members respectively and a total affiliated forest area of 2.2 million ha, and 1 million ha forest 6 Approximately 7 million ha, which corresponds to almost 33% of the total forest area in Sweden 8

13 The overall aim of this study is to assess what capacity forestry management in Sweden has to adapt to climate change to see how well prepared these actors are to adapt. The following questions form the base of this assessment: How well do actors in forestry management perceive the risks and challenges associated with climate change? What functions either promote or reduce the adaptive capacity among actors in forestry management? A set of analytical variables have been chosen to assess the adaptive capacity. The first variable is risk perception. The second is perceived adaptive capacity (i.e., what actors in forestry management believe they can do to adapt to climatic changes). The third analytical variable is actual adaptive capacity, which is a synthesis of two groups of components: 1) scientific suggestions for possible actions that can prepare forest management for climate changes and 2) supporting and eroding factors for adaptation, drawn from resilience theory. Resilience theory and support for the variables and components used in the analysis are explained in depth in chapter 2, Theoretical Framework. The analysis and the analytical variables are explained in detail in chapter 3, Methods and Material. This chapter also presents and discusses the case study approach and primary and secondary sources of data. Chapter 4, Results, presents the findings from the literature review and the interviews. In chapter 5, Analysis and Discussion, these findings are analysed and discussed in relation to resilience theory and to what wider implications they may have for Swedish forestry. The last chapter, Conclusions, summarises the results and gives recommendations and suggestions for future research. 9

14 2. Theoretical Framework This chapter gives a more thorough explanation of concepts and theoretical terms that will be used in the thesis. It is intended primarily for readers who are not already familiar with the theoretical terminology. The broad theoretical approach is drawn from resilience theory, with emphasis on a selection of concepts regarded as relevant for the case. One core theme in resilience theory is that human societies depend on natural systems through so-called ecosystem services. These are products and services that ecosystems provide and that form a base for survival, wealth and future development for people (Folke et al 2002). This dependence, and the interactions between societies and nature that follow, have integrated human and natural systems. Walker and Salt (2006) describe these so-called social-ecological systems (SES) as interconnected ecological and social systems that are highly complex and that constantly change and reorganise. Social-ecological systems are shaped by unexpected events and disturbances, by the preferences for certain products and services, as well as by intentional choices of management practices made by actors in the social system (Walker et al 2004). Resilience of social-ecological systems is here defined as the ability that SES systems have to cope, adapt, or reorganize without sacrificing the provision of ecosystem services (Folke et al 2002:7). Therefore, in a forest ecosystem, resilience will determine its ability to restore itself, to return to a desired state, which may be to continue producing goods and services after, for example, logging, or a storm or a fire that has caused significant damage to the system. Elmqvist et al (2003) add that diversity of species together with a variety of options to respond to changes, increase the chance of ecosystems remaining in a state where they can produce ecosystem services. In order to ensure a long-term provision of ecosystem services (e.g., clean air and water, nutrient provision, seed dispersal and pollination) the human use of natural resources must build on an understanding of the complexity in ecological systems (Folke et al 2002). 10

15 Folke et al (2002) and Walker and Salt (2006) argue that natural resource management must also be designed in ways that make use of dynamics and changes in the system. The ability of ecosystems to provide services is therefore dependant on the capacity of actors in the social system to manage the resources in a way that stimulate production while increasing the systems capacity to cope with stress (Walker et al 2004). According to several scientists, adaptability is a crucial component in successful management of SES. It can be understood as the ability of the human actors to influence the resilience of the system, through choosing management strategies that do not reduce future options (Folke et al 2002, Walker et al 2004). Therefore, in highly managed systems such as a forest used for forestry the social part of the SES determines its adaptability to a large extent (Walker et al 2004). Research on how to determine actors adaptive capacity has traditionally focused on finding their objective adaptive capacity, based on calculations on availability or lack of material resources (Grothmann and Patt 2005). Emphasis shifted toward institutional constraints to adaptation and started to view adaptation as a dynamic process (Kelly and Adger 2000). According to several scholars, one component that has not been given enough focus is actors risk perception and what effects it has on the choice of management responses (Folke et al 2002, Blennow and Sallnäs 2002, KSLA 2004). Grothmann and Patt (2005) go further, suggesting that assessments of adaptive capacity must include research on the actors own perception of risk and on their perception of what they can do to adapt, i.e., their perceived adaptive capacity, as main variables. The perception of risk will determine the motivation to act whereas the perceived adaptive capacity, the notion of what is possible to do, will determine if action is taken at all (Grothmann and Patt 2005). People may not be aware of their ability to act and have a tendency to underestimate their adaptive capacity, especially when facing new global problems (Grothmann and Patt 2005). The perceived adaptive capacity is therefore often lower than the actual capacity to adapt. This makes it relevant to focus on cognitive barriers to change rather than on resource or structure related barriers as has traditionally been the case. Folke et al (2002) suggest several factors that can promote and sustain an actual adaptive capacity in management of natural resources. One example is to view change as a valuable opportunity for learning and create an accumulated knowledge base for how to respond to 11

16 environmental feedback. Similar ideas are presented by Dietz et al (2003). They argue that since current knowledge and understandings might be wrong and fixed rules often fail because they do not acknowledge this, it is crucial that institutions are designed to be prepared for change (Dietz et al 2003). This is, they say, especially important in complex systems and when facing large-scale, critical problems like climate change (Dietz et al 2003). They emphasise flexibility and argue that it enables experimentation and learning in a system (Dietz et al 2003). Ludwig (2001) argues that a trial and error approach may facilitate learning and generate tools for adaptation. The role of science and connections between scientists and management are also considered to be highly relevant for learning and the generation of new knowledge. Dietz et al (2003) say that a dialogue between scientists and resource users is essential to improve knowledge and trust in that knowledge as well as to facilitate effective use of information. Another crucial factor is to integrate scientific understandings with knowledge from experienced natural resource managers. Grothmann and Patt (2005) support this factor, and add that it is important to establish long-term relation of trust between stakeholders and experts. Pretty (2003) also emphasises the importance of trust. Together with openness and frequent communication, trust among actors is important for social capital (Pretty 2003). Pretty (2003) argues that these components are crucial for encouraging actors in natural resource management to invest in collective action. Folke et al (2005:451) describe social capital as the glue for adaptive capacity and collaboration. Since scientific advice as well as regulation, market forces and public opinion influence management practices in forestry, the collective capacity of all actors becomes crucial for the success of the system. Ludwig (2001) supports this, saying that the chance of successful management of natural resources is greater when all interested parties take part of the decision making process. Previous research on impacts of climate change and natural resource management in Sweden has mainly dealt with expected consequences on species and to some extent on ecosystems (KSLA 2004). One report by Blennow and Sallnäs (2002) focuses on assessing the risk perception of single private forest owners. This thesis will assess risk perception as well as the perceived and actual adaptive capacity by actors in Swedish forestry. 12

17 3. Methods and Material This chapter presents theoretical support for the choice of research approach and methods for data collection. It also explains the selection of methods, case study boundaries and data sources. The last section explains the analytical variables and how the analysis was carried out Case study approach and case study boundaries This study is a combination of own field studies and a desk study. A case-study approach has been chosen because it is holistic in several senses. It is also an approach broad enough to make it possible to identify, catch and appreciate different types of knowledge and information (Merriam 1988). A case study can be a useful method when trying to make a holistic description and analysis, with the objective to attain increased understanding and insight in a specific real life phenomenon. Merriam (1988) argues that a case study makes it possible for the researcher to be open to multiple interpretations and unforeseeable events. According to several scholars, the method can be useful for describing and understanding complex processes with many interacting variables (Merriam 1988, Denscombe 1998), in this case dynamics in processes of adaptation. Denscombe (1998) encourages the use of several methods in the case-study approach, as a way to capture complex relationships. This was the reason for using a combined method of literature reviews and interviews. The boundaries of this study are geographic and administrative. The nation boundaries of Sweden were chosen due to the timeline and economic constraints, but also because there are similar rules and regulations for forestry within the borders. The informants were selected because they represent major actors in Swedish forestry and operate at a level where they can influence management policy in forestry today and in the future. Key persons were chosen from the four major forest companies 7, and from two of the major organisations for single private forest owners 8. Together, these persons represent the 7 Sveaskog AB, SCA Skog AB, Bergvik Skog AB and Holmen Skog AB 8 Södra and Skogsägarna Norrskog 13

18 ownership and management of approximately 45% of the forest area in Sweden. Unfortunately, I did not manage to reach representatives from two of the four member organisations (Mellanskog and Norra Skogsägarna) for an interview Data sources The data consists of primary data collected through semi-structured interviews with six informants and secondary data from a review of recent research on climate change Interviews as primary sources of data A professional qualitative interview can be described as a systematic investigation of something subjective or of a subjectively understood phenomenon, where that subjective view is later interpreted into scientific data (Lanz 1993). I used this interpretation of interview method when trying to capture the informants perception of climate change. Semi-structured interviews were chosen because their loose structure, with themes rather than detailed questionnaires, allows the interviewer to be flexible during the interview and the interviewees to be relatively free (Lanz 1993). It is also a method that can easily be combined with the case-study approach (Denscombe 1998). Telephone interviews and interviews through personal meetings were used. Telephone interviews have long been considered to produce less reliable data since they do not offer the same possibility for the interviewer to control and reflect on the interview situation. However, today this method has gained in credibility among researchers and is widely used (Denscombe 1998). The informants I had chosen were distributed throughout all of Sweden and I had limited time and financial constraints. Therefore, telephone interviews were used for half of the interviews. The interviews were designed to reflect the subjective perception of the informants. I wanted to understand where their information concerning climate change primarily came from and how they had responded to this information. Key informants within the corporations and the member organisations were selected with regard to their area of expertise. I primarily looked for persons involved in strategic planning for forest management (Skoglig planering) and responsible for environmental issues. In one case, the informant I had chosen directed me to 14

19 another person whom he regarded as better suited to answer my questions. The interviewees were not informed about the specific questions beforehand. In one case, some broad topics were sent out in advance, upon request. The interviews were conducted during March All the interviews were recorded and notes were taken to support transcription and interpretation. Informal interviews were also made with persons holding specific expertise in key areas. These interviews had the purpose of enriching my knowledge and understanding. Outcomes of these interviews are not presented explicitly in the results section. They are rather used to support other findings Literature review Secondary data sources were used for a set of reasons. One reason was to increase my knowledge and understanding of the topic, but it was also important for creating a platform against which the primary data could be evaluated. Through the literature study I synthesised a picture of how Swedish boreal forest and forestry may be affected by climate change, and what risks and challenges actors in Swedish forestry could expect. The actors risk perception was then assessed in comparison to this synthesis. The report from IPCC was used as a baseline to illustrate general trends in climate changes. Other reports I selected should not contradict these general trends. I searched for studies that explicitly tried to assess different aspects of climate change, the nature of changes and how this would impact on Swedish conditions, boreal forests and associated management and commercial forestry. A secondary request when selecting the reports was that they should state recommendations of how to meet these challenges. In order to ensure reliability of the written sources, scientific reports have been selected mainly from official sources, and I chose the most recently published material I could find that suited my requirements. Peer reviewed articles and publications have been collected from well known journals. The review of reports according to the requirements resulted in three reports being selected for the synthesis. These are presented below. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, The summary for policymakers (referred to as IPCC 2007), is part of the fourth assessment report (FAR) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This report is the contribution of Working group I in the IPCC, whose task is to assess scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change. The report is a product of cooperation between scientists and a synthesis of peer reviewed and published literature and research (IPCC online, ). The compilation of this document is also a 15

20 political process with associated considerations and compromises (Bogren et al 2006). This report was chosen because of its significance for the political agenda and management policies concerning adaptation to and mitigation of climate effects. The report is based on predictions about the global societal, economic, technological and demographic development, called the SRES 9, but it does not offer very detailed conclusions concerning impacts on specific regions or ecosystems. To find case specific assessments I contacted the administration for a government-initiated project for assessing vulnerability and the need for adaptation by Sweden to climate change that started in (Klimat- och Sårbarhetsutredningen online a, ). But, the reports that had been produced only treated risks associated with flooding. The planned assessment of the forestry sector was not finalised but is expected to be published during 2007/2008 (R1). However, this project had reviewed similar assessments from other countries as a starting point for its work (Klimat- och Sårbarhetsutredningen online b 2007). After reading a PM (Thörn 2006) and a summary (Lohmander 2006) linked to this project, I found that Finland had made a national assessment that included a detailed study of the impacts on Finnish forests and forestry. Adaptation of forest ecosystems, forests and forestry to climate change, the FINADAPT Working Paper 4 (referred to as Kellomäki et al 2005), from the Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs, is part of the Finnish Environmental Cluster Research Programme that is coordinated by the Finnish Ministry of Environment. The study uses an ecosystem model for the simulations, SIMA, described by Kolström (1998). It takes four variables/factors into consideration: temperature, light, moisture and decomposition with availability of nitrogen. The study also uses data from a national forest inventory made in 1995 as well as different climate scenarios. The time span for the projections is between 1990 and The aim is to analyse how increases in temperature, precipitation and CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere 9 SRES: The Emission Scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios are illustrative marker scenarios for the period They are divided into six scenario groups, A1B, A1FI, A1T, A2, B1 and B2. Scenarios for future emissions of CO 2 have then been calculated based on different combinations of variables such as societal, economic, technological and demographic development. All scenarios should be considered equally likely and sound. They are storylines and suggestions, not forecasts (IPCC 2007). 10 Klimat och Sårbarhetsutredningen (Dir. 2005:80) 16