John Holmberg. 10 miljarder lyckliga människor på denna planet?

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1 NAS John Holmberg Hållbar utveckling utmaningar och möjligheter Borås Stad 2025 vision och strategi, 14 sept., 2011 John Holmberg Professor Fysisk resursteori och UNESCO Vicerektor

2 10 miljarder lyckliga människor på denna planet?

3 Dubbel utmaning Resurser Behov

4 Dubbel utmaning Resurser Befolkning Behov

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8 Dubbel utmaning Resurser Befolkning Ekonomi Behov

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11 Television Sets in India Total population of TV sets in: , ,000,000 Actual sales in 2010 = > 21 million

12 Dubbel utmaning Resurser Befolkning Ekonomi Material- och energiintensitet Behov

13 800 Energianvändning (GJ/cap/år) Totala utgifter (1000 kr/cap/år)

14 Dubbel utmaning Resursknapphet Resurser Befolkning Ekonomi Material- och energiintensitet Behov

15 GÖRAN CARSTEDT 2010

18 John Holmberg GÖRAN CARSTEDT 2010

20 PEAK OIL John Holmberg

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23 Dubbel utmaning Resurser Resursknapphet Assimilationsknapphet Befolkning Ekonomi Material- och energiintensitet Behov

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25 Dubbel utmaning Resurser Resursknapphet Assimilationsknapphet Ytknapphet Befolkning Ekonomi Material- och energiintensitet Behov

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27 Dubbel utmaning Resurser Resursknapphet Assimilationsknapphet Ytknapphet Befolkning Ekonomi Material- och energiintensitet Behov

28 Concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere Year 2100: ca 700 ppm The latest years Vostok Ice Core Year 2005: 381 ppm Year 1800: 280 ppm Källa:

29 The natural greehouse effect H 2 O CO 2 T = -19 C T = 14 C Without the Atmosphere With the Atmosphere

30 6 USA CO 2 -C emissions per capita, Canada, N.Z., Australia CO 2 emissions (tonc/capita) Russia Japan W.Europe E.Europe Middle East Sweden 1 China L.America Other Asia India World average Africa Population (million) Data from Sources: FAO, CDIAC

31 Historisk mänsklig energianvändning Energianvändning (EJ) Icke-kommersiell biomassa Kommersiell biomassa Kärnkraft Vattenkraft Naturgas Olja Kol

32 Möjligheter för minskade CO 2 -utsläpp BEFOLKNING INKOMST MÄNGD ENERGITJÄNTER ENERGIEFFEKTIVISERING Energitillförsel CO 2 -NEUTRAL TILLFÖRSEL Fossila bränslen CO 2 -INFÅNGNING

33 10,000 times more energy from the sun

34 Yta för 100% solenergiförsörjning John Holmberg

35 PVs Costs and production John Holmberg Källa: European Photovoltaic Industri Association, 2001

36 Reduced costs 10 Electric Technologies in EU Cost of Electricity (ECU(1990)/kWh) Photovoltaics (~65%) Wind Power - Best Performance (82%) 1995 Wind Power - Average (82%) 1995 Electricity from Biomass (~85%) Supercritical Coal (97%) NGCC (96%) Cumulative Electricity Production (TWh)

37 Four Times Square, NYC (Condé-Nast Building) John Holmberg m 2 ; 47 storeys non-toxic, low-energy materials 50% energy savings/m 2 despite doubled ventilation rates Fuel cells Integral PV in S & W facades Ultrareliable power helped recruit premium tenants at premium rents Market average construction cost

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39 Koppla ur dig från elnätet i Tokyo Buy a system of one Tostem House with sun and wind power and two Mitsubishi i-miev with battery storage capacity for total:1,625 million SEK, and disconnect from the grid.

41 Energianvändning (TWh/år) Bästa teknik 2000 Avancerad teknik 2000 Realiserad Sverige Bostäder & service Transporter Industri Källa: Holmberg & Nässén 2006

42 Energianvändning (TWh/år) Bästa teknik 2000 Avancerad teknik 2000 Realiserad Sverige Bostäder & service Transporter Industri Källa: Holmberg & Nässén 2006

43 FIGUR: Andel av koldioxidminskningen 2030 från respektive källa. IEA WEO 2009, Excerpt John Holmberg

44 Flerbostadshus Levererad energi per uppvärmd yta (kwh/m 2 /yr) Alla byggnader Nya byggnader Lågenergihus Källa: Nässén & Holmberg 2006

45 Lindåshusen Totalt: kwh/yr John Holmberg

46 Nybygge av hus utan uppvärmningssystem Säljpris: ca kr EXTRA KOSTNAD: kr Isolering: Värmeväxlare (luft-luft) Fönster U=0, SUMMA MINUS UPPVÄRMNINGSSYTEM Installationer: Kyl och frys, tvättmaskin etc, A Solvärme

47 Utveckling av passiva hus i Tyskland John Holmberg

48 New cars in Sweden ,8 1,6 101kW 1,4 Power 1, km/h 1417kg Top speed Weight 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 Only 35% of technology improvement is used to reduce fuel consumption! 8,26l/100km 10.02s Fuel consumption Acceleration Källa: Sprei, Karlsson & Holmberg 2007

49 Polytech' Nantes, France:? km/l

50 Polytech' Nantes, France: 4896 km/l!!!!!!!! John Holmberg

52 + 10 % inkomst à + 9 % energianvändning John Holmberg 800 Energianvändning (GJ/cap/år) Totala utgifter (1000 kr/cap/år)

53 Energy use (GJ/c.u./yr) Single- family house 100 Apartment Total expenditures (1000 SEK/c.u./yr) Source: Holmberg & Nässén 2011

54 Stor variation Energianvändning (GJ/cap/år) High energy intensity (decile) Low energy intensity (decile) Factor Totala utgifter (1000 kr/cap/år)

55 Meeting the challenge of sustainable development 1. Technical fix will solve the problem 2. Need for lifestyle changes implying sacrifices

56 Meeting the challenge of sustainable development 1. Technical fix will solve the problem 2. Need for lifestyle changes implying sacrifices 3. Stronger focus on well-being might be a driving force for Sustainable development

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58 Energy intensity (J/h) Very low (zero) Use of appliances: medium high Commuting: high Activity Happiness Sex 4,7 Socializing 4,0 Relaxing 3,9 Praying/meditating 3,8 Eating 3,8 Exercising 3,8 Watching TV 3,6 Shopping 3,2 Preparing food 3,2 Talking in phone 3,1 Taking care of children 3,0 Computer/internet 3,0 Housework 3,0 Working 2,7 Commuting 2,6

59 USA BILLBOARD 1937 John Holmberg 59

60 Some aspects of work /me - Long work hours correlate with /me pressure - Higher income (than about dollar per capita) does not seem to increase well- being - Shorter work hours give room for (social) ac/vi/es that are important for well- being

61 Some aspects of work /me - Long work hours correlate with /me pressure But, shorter work hours may also involve problems: - Financing of the welfare system - Higher income (than about dollar per capita) does not seem to increase well- being - Shorter work hours give room for (social) ac/vi/es that are important for well- being

62 Energy intensity (J/h) Very low (zero) Use of appliances: medium high Commuting: high Activity Happiness Sex 4,7 Socializing 4,0 Relaxing 3,9 Praying/meditating 3,8 Eating 3,8 Exercising 3,8 Watching TV 3,6 Shopping 3,2 Preparing food 3,2 Talking in phone 3,1 Taking care of children 3,0 Computer/internet 3,0 Housework 3,0 Working 2,7 Commuting 2,6

63 Increased Commuting Commuting intensity across municipality boarders in Sweden Källa: Eliasson et al., 2007

64 PERSONAL TRANSPORTATION IN SWEDEN person- km/cap/dag CAR Personbil MOTOR CYCLE MC AIR Inrikes luft- och sjöfart Buss BUS Bantrafik TRAIN OTHER Gång, cykel, moped

65 John Holmberg Typical car advertisement Typical commuting situation

66 Commuting implies negative effects on well-being: Commuting is among those activities with the lowest well-being effect (Killingsworth & Gilbert 2010). Each 10-minute longer commuting time offers significant reductions in life satisfaction, despite the positive impact that the choice was assumed to entail for the individual (Stutzer & Frey 2008). The habituation effect is larger in terms of the benefits of commuting long distances than for the stress effect (Frank 2004; Koslowsky et al. 1995).

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73 De grundläggande behoven Enligt den chilenske ekonomen Manfred Max-Neef Fysiska behov (permanence/subsistence) Skydd/trygghet (protection) Tillgivenhet (affection) Förståelse (understanding) Delaktighet (participation) Ledighet/frihet (leisure) Skapande (creation) Identitet/meningsfullhet (identity/meaning) Frihet (freedom)

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75 The Politics of Happiness The name Bogota conjures images of kidnapping, murder, and drug wars. But today's Bogota is safer than Washington, D.C., or Baltimore. A visionary mayor discovered the secret to making his city safe. Enrique Penalosa tells Susan Ives the story. by Enrique Peñalosa, Susan Ives posted May 20, 2004 We really have to admit that over the past 100 years we have been building cities much more for mobility than for people's well-being. Every year thousands of children are killed by cars. Isn't it time we build cities that are more child-friendly? Over the last 30 years, we've been able to magnify environmental consciousness all over the world. As a result, we know a lot about the ideal environment for a happy whale or a happy mountain gorilla. We're far less clear about what constitutes an ideal environment for a happy human being. One common measure of how clean a mountain stream is is to look for trout. If you find the trout, the habitat is healthy. It's the same way with children in a city. Children are a kind of indicator species. If we can build a successful city for children, we will have a successful city for all people. When I was elected mayor of Bogotá and got to city hall, I was handed a transportation study that said the most important thing the city could do was to build an elevated highway at a cost of $600 million. Instead, we installed a bus system that carries 700,000 people a day at a cost of $300 million. We created hundreds of pedestrian-only streets, parks, plazas, and bike paths, planted trees, and got rid of cluttering commercial signs. We constructed the longest pedestrian-only street in the world. It may seem crazy, because this street goes through some of the poorest neighborhoods in Bogotá, and many of the surrounding streets aren't even paved. But we Enrique Penalosa, mayor of Bogota, Colombia, photo by Susan Ives chose not to improve the streets for the sake of cars, but instead to have wonderful spaces for pedestrians. All this pedestrian infrastructure shows respect for human dignity. We're telling people, You are important not because you're rich or because you have a Ph.D., but because you are human. If people are treated as special, as sacred even, they behave that way. This creates a different kind of society. We began to experiment by instituting a car-free day on a weekday. In a city of about 7 million people, just

76 FORSKNING UTBILDNING - INNOVATION INFRASTRUKTURER? ASTA Active Safety Test Area John Holmberg Wind Test Area

77 John Holmberg Urban Future

78 John Holmberg FORSKNING UTBILDNING - INNOVATION INFRASTRUKTURER

79 Trust Increased participation Understanding Collaboration Creativity, innovation, support Listening and observing Excitement, appreciation Collaboration begins with listening

80 Lack of trust Redundancy Increase costs Decreased resources Misunderstanding Social Separation Internal Competition Decrease in listening and observing Fear The cost of not listening

81 Backcasting 1. Defining criteria for sustainability 4. Finding strategies towards sustainability 3. Envision future solutions 2. Describe present situation in relation to the criteria for sustainability [Holmberg, 1998]

82 Det finns de som får saker att hända. Det finns de som ser saker hända. Det finns de som undrar vad som hände Philip Kotler John Holmberg

83 The second mouse gets the cheese John Holmberg

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85 Mistra Urban Futures centre for sustainable urban development John Holmberg

86 Urval John Holmberg

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88 10 Gt John Holmberg

89 - 62% - 79% Before Comfort Minimum - 84% - 95% - 58% - 51% Food Housing Travel Misc. Total

90 The most important measures John Holmberg

91 The effect of the society around the Lindell family? Ton CO2e/person and year John Holmberg Public consumption Miscellaneous Transport Food Housing Before Comfort Minimum Before Comfort Minimum

92 Old Logic Things New Logic Ideas, knowledge

93 Old Logic Things New Logic Ideas, knowledge Org. as machine Hierarchies Structure Boss Action Teaching Capital growth Info technology Market share Conquer Nature Org. as communities Networks Process Facilitator Interaction Learning People growth Interaction technology Mind share Harmony with Nature Source: Göran Carstedt