The OECD Territorial Review of Småland-Blekinge: First Impressions Carlos Icaza Lara, William Tompson and Yancy Vaillant Regional Development Policy Division Directorate for Public Governance and Territorial Development OECD Växjö, 1 April 2011
First, a word of thanks to the members of the local team (Emil Hesse, Helena Nilsson, Maria Nilsson, Per Schöldberg and Sofia Westerberg) for an outstanding background report and the organisation of a flawless mission; to the two dozen or so colleagues who helped them compile the report; to all our interlocutors in the four counties this week; and, in particular, to Per Schöldberg, for acting as guide, chauffeur, advisor and chaperone. 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 2
And a health warning This presentation reflects the first impressions of the OECD team following their first study mission in the region. The views presented here are therefore preliminary and are those of the authors alone. They do not necessarily reflect the position of the OECD or its member states. 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 3
Part 1 A LOOK AT THE RECENT PAST 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 4
Growth performance has been unspectacular in a Swedish context 4.0% Average of Swedish regions Sweden average GDP per capita growth in PPP 1995-2005 3.5% OECD average Stockholm Blekinge 3.0% Uppsala Västra Götaland Sweden average 2.5% Skåne Norbotten Dalama Jönköping average of Swedish regions 2.0% Kalmar Värmland Kronoberg Vasternorrland OECD average 1.5% Gotland Orebro Halland Gävleborg 1.0% 17,000 19,000 21,000 23,000 25,000 27,000 29,000 31,000 33,000 35,000 Initial GDP per capita in PPP 1995 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 5
but relatively strong in an OECD context GDP per capita growth in PPP 1995-2005 9.5% 8.5% 7.5% 6.5% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% 2.5% 1.5% 0.5% -0.5% -1.5% -2.5% -3.5% OECD average Stockholm OECD average 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Initial GDP per capita in PPP 1995 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 6
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Volatility of growth growth rate GDPpc in each yr 1981-2005 standard deviation annual average growth GDPpc 1995-2005 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 7 Stockholm Skåne Dalarna Värmland Örebro Västra Götaland Västerbotten Uppsala Västmanland Östergötland Norrbotten Jämtland Södermanland Västernorrland Gävleborg Jönköping Kronoberg Gotland Halland Kalmar Blekinge
Part 2 THE CHALLENGE OF THE FUTURE 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 8
Transition ahead The recent crisis has forced the pace of structural change in OECD economies. The implications of this shift are particularly great for the counties of Småland and Blekinge. It is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain competitive medium-to-low tech manufacturing in the developed countries. 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 9
Specialisation in high-tech and knowledge-intensive industries 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 10
Specialisation in medium-low and low tech sectors 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 11
Paradigm Shift in Regional Policies Objectives Traditional Regional Policies Balancing economic performances by temporary compensating for disparities New Paradigm Tapping under-utilised regional potential for competitiveness Strategies Sectoral approach Integrated development projects Tools Subsidies and state aid Investment in soft and hard infrastructures Actors Central government Different levels of government Unit of analysis Administrative regions Redistribution from leading to lagging regions Functional regions Building competitive regions by bringing together actors and targeting key local assets 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 12
Human capital Activation Innovation Entrepreneurship Connectivity Key growth factors How can the regionalisation process affect the counties ability to meet these challenges? 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 13
Human capital Share of population 25 64 years with primary and secondary education as highest level of education 2009 35% 30% 29% 25% 20% 19% 18% 18% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 13% 13% 13% 12% 11% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 14
Human capital Activation Innovation Entrepreneurship Connectivity Key growth factors How can the regionalisation process affect the counties ability to meet these challenges? 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 15
Labour market performance 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 16
Youth unemployment and population density 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 17
International migrants as % of population, 2010 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Stockholm Skåne Kronoberg Uppsala Blekinge Norrbotten Västerbotten Västra Götaland Värmland Gävleborg Södermanland Västmanland Västernorrland Dalarna Östergötland Örebro Jönköping Jämtland Kalmar Halland Gotland 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 18
Human capital Activation Innovation Entrepreneurship Connectivity Key growth factors How can the regionalisation process affect the counties ability to meet these challenges? 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 19
Key growth factors Human capital Activation Innovation Entrepreneurship Connectivity How can the regionalisation process affect the counties ability to meet these challenges? 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 20
Enterprise creation 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 21
Firm start-ups by managerial gender Only women 2009 Mixed managerial 2009 Growth rate Women+mixed managerial 2000 2009 (RHS) 50% 12% 40% 10% 30% 8% 6% 20% 4% 10% 2% 0% 0% Gotland Södermanland Östergötland Kalmar Halland Västernorrland Jönköping Västra Götaland Värmland Gävleborg Västmanland Blekinge Kronoberg Uppsala Skåne Dalarna Jämtland Örebro Stockholm Norrbotten Västerbotten 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 22
Human capital Activation Entrepreneurship Innovation Connectivity Key growth factors How can the regionalisation process affect the counties ability to meet these challenges? 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 23
Connecting the region 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 24
Human capital Activation Entrepreneurship Innovation Connectivity Key growth factors How can the regionalisation process affect the counties ability to meet these challenges? An integrated policy approach 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 25
And finally, the counties could make more of their Baltic Sea location and revive a traditional sector that was once the backbone of the economy... 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 26
A new Småland-Blekinge Model? (Sharp competitive edge) Globalisation with TEETH. 1 April 2011 Växjö Seminar 27