IT-trender som påverkar offentlig IT-upphandling

Transkript

1 IT-trender som påverkar offentlig IT-upphandling Håkan V. Nilsson Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

2 Hur jag kommer att prata Påverkan på Trends Påverkan på svensk offentlig IT-upphandling

3 "In a few hundred years, when the history of our time is written from a long-term perspective, it is likely the most important event historians will see is not technology, but the unprecedented change in the human condition. For the first time, people have choices." Peter F. Drucker Things you CANNOT do anything about Things you CAN make choices about

4 Three Things you Cannot Control

5 Economic Growth Forecast for 2011 (Real GDP by %) 2.3% North America 4.5% Latin America (excluding Mexico) 1.7% Europe 5.1% Africa 6.6% Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) 2011 Worldwide Real GDP Growth 3.3%

6 The State of the IT Industry: Worldwide IT Spending/Forecast by IT Sector ($ in Billions) Market Segment 2009 Spending 2010 Spending 2011 Spending Computing Hardware Annual Growth -12.3% 9.4% 8.5% Software Annual Growth -2.6% 4.5% 6.1% IT Services Annual Growth -5.1% 0.7% 2.5% Telecom 1, , ,015.4 Annual Growth -3.6% 2.8% 2.7% All IT 3, , ,446.9 Annual Growth -4.9% +3.2% +3.5% Source: Gartner Forecast Alert IT Spending, Worldwide, 3Q10 Update

7 Environmental Issues Source: World Wildlife Fund Living Planet Report, "As human numbers continue to increase, casting an evermore unsustainable ecological footprint, it is hugely important that business and industry engages with the problem." Lord Bob May, former Chief Scientific Advisor to the UK Government and past President of the Royal Society By 2014 most IT business cases will include carbon remediation costs

8 Proliferation Devices and Data There are 1 billion transistors for every human on the planet, TODAY! By 2011 more than 30 billion RFID tags will be embedded into products By 2015 more than 15 billion devices will be connected to the Internet Every day more than 15 petabytes** of new information is being generated, and the rate doubles every 18 months (** equivalent to 300 million four drawer filing cabinets) We are drowning in a sea of data, but we lack information, insight and understanding Sources: Intel, IBM, Gartner estimates

9 Påverkan Ekonomin - Sverige har det bättre än många andra länder, räkna med uppmärksamhet Miljön - En fortsatt viktig del i alla upphandlingar Spridningen av grejor och data - Större effekter än vi kanske anar

10 "Technology succeeds when it meets a need that people care about!" Genevieve Bell, Intel Research Fellow Things you CANNOT do anything about Things you CAN make choices about

11 Trend #1: Social Computing

12 Påverkan Sociala nätverk kommer att utgöra en allt större del av vad en svensk offentliganställd gör Publika sociala nätverksplattformar kommer att användas i allt större utsträckning (en del i Government 2.0/eFörvaltning) - och det behöver inte handlas upp - om ni handlar upp kommer det inte att användas

13 Trend #1: Social Computing = Device Proliferation Behavioral changes in society Entertainment, "always on" Expectations of participation Consumerization of IT Form Factors (Surface, tablets, mobile) Future of the PC/HCI You must look toward social and behavioral sciences to better understand the impacts and predict future changes

14 Strategic Planning Assumption By 2013, 80% of businesses will support a workforce using tablets. By 2014, 90% of organizations will support corporate applications on personal devices.

15 Påverkan Mycket stor påverkan på offentlig IT-upphandling Andra grejor ; smart phones, pads, etc. Andra krav på standardutrustning - Användarna har tillgång till bättre grejor hemma - Användarna får bättre användarupplevelser hemma Kommunikation; alltid uppkopplad överallt Svårt att särskilja vad som är privat och jobb

16 Trend #2: Contextual Computing Who you are, where you are, what you are doing What you want next Location is the key to context, time the trigger By 2012: More than 7.3 billion networked devices worldwide 298 million subscribers of location-based services MVE algorithm plot on citywide activity Source: Sense Networks

17 IT/Operational Technology (OT) alignment due to the rise of contextual computing Instrumentation, Navigation and Tracking Systems Automated Medical Imaging Systems, "Smart" Biomedical Devices, and Location and Condition-Sensing Technologies Robotic and Other Production Control Systems Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Systems, Intelligent Meters

18 Strategic Planning Assumption Inadequate software management of OT systems will result in a major business failure of a top Global 100 company by 2013.

19 Påverkan Stor påverkan på sikt på offentlig IT-upphandling I grunden så handlar det om IT och OT - IT: den vanliga IT:n vi använder; laptops, servrar etc. - OT: den inbäddade IT:n i hälso- och sjukvård, trafikövervakning, i bilar etc. OT kommer att behövas hanteras som IT, exempel på frågeställningar för inköpare: - Ska den kopplas till vårt nätverk? - Är den säker och kan övervakas? - TV:n kan kopplas till nätverket, är det bra?

20 Trend #3: Advanced Analytics Data overwhelms The challenge is to use it: Hindsight Insight Foresight Line-of-sight Analytics helps us see more clearly. See what needs to be done, and by when. See what is needed, and where. See what is being wasted, and why. See what could be achieved, and how.

21 Pattern-Based Strategy Cycle Seek Patterns That May Have a Positive or Negative Impact on Your Strategy or Operations Model Pattern Impact on Strategy/Operations Decide and Execute Change Pursuant With Requirements of the Pattern

22 Strategic Planning Assumption Through 2015, pattern-seeking technology will be the fastest-growing intelligence investment among the most successful Global 2000.

23 Påverkan Konkret påverkan Det är något som behöver handlas upp - Kallas bland annat; datawarehouse, BI etc. - Lagring, lagring, lagring, lagring, lagring, lagring Det är något som kan användas av inköpare: - Förutse behov - Förutse utbud

24 Trend #4: Cloud Computing: Evolution Cloud services today tend to be standardized, elastic but in "chunks," and monolithic in nature. By 2012: 20% of businesses will own no IT assets In the future, we will see custom service levels, rapid and granular elasticity, and open, federated markets of services.

25 Evolution of Cloud Computing: How We Got Here Business Demand Expenses (entry and ongoing) Speed and agility Need for simplicity The Internet Web standards Pervasive browser Efficiency Technologies Multitenant software Virtualization Automation Parallel computing Industrialization of IT Standardization Commoditization Open source

26 The Hype and Reality of Cloud Computing for Infrastructure and Operations Today Enterprise Hype Enterprise Reality Enterprise Services IT IT IT Management IT Management Manage horizontal and vertical services Everything to the cloud a service at a time Brokering, private cloud, internal IT

27 Strategic Planning Assumption By 2016, all Global 2000 companies will use public cloud services.

28 Påverkan Stor påverkan på svensk offentlig IT-upphandling Mindre tillgångar, dvs mindre av enkla hårdvaru- och mjukvaru-upphandlingar Mera komplicerade tjänsteupphandlingar - Inga marknadsstandarder - Svårare att specificera Upphandla HW, SW och tjänster för att skapa egna moln Mera utmanande interna förhållanden, vem bestämmer över IT?

29 Sammanfattning Trend 1 Social Computing and Device Proliferation 2 Contextual Computing and IT/OT Convergence Påverkan Sociala nätverk överallt, hela tiden och på många grejor, privata eller jobbets. Andra krav på standardutrustning OT behöver hanteras som IT, nya frågeställningar 3 Advanced Analytics and Patterns Nytt område att handla upp. Mycket lagring. Användbart för inköpare. 4 Cloud Computing Mindre hård- och mjukvara att handla upp. Mera komplicerade IT-tjänster. Utmanande interna IT förhållande.

30 Rekommenderad läsning för Gartners kunder "Planning in Uncertain Times: Four Fundamental Trends Reflect the Increasing Power of the Individual" (G ) Harris, Prentice "Four Megatrends Converge in the Post-Recession New Normal" (G ) Harris, Prentice "Pattern-Based Strategy: Seizing New Opportunities" (G ) Prentice "Business Leaders Must Prepare for a Surveillance Society" (G ) Prentice "Consumerization gains Momentum: The IT Civil War" (G ) Mitchell-Smith, Prentice "Smart Devices and Sense-and-Respond Systems are Event Driven" (G ) Schulte, Pezzini "Early Findings from the 2010 Gartner CEO and Business Executive Survey" (G ) Lopez, Raskino "Balancing Cost, Risk and Growth The 2009 Gartner Symposium Analyst Keynote" (G ) Various For more information, stop by Gartner Solution Central or us at solutioncentral@gartner.com.

31 Gartner delivers the technology-related insight necessary for our clients to make the right decisions, every day.