HELIX-dagen 1/ Linköpings universitet FACKET IDAG OCH I FRAMTIDEN

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1 HELIX-dagen 1/ Linköpings universitet FACKET IDAG OCH I FRAMTIDEN (1) Om framtidens arbetsliv och partsrelationer: INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS FORESIGHT 2025: SWEDEN COMPARED TO EU15, EU12 AND GLOBAL 7 COUNTRIES (Eurofound-projekt) (2) Det fackliga medlemsraset i Sverige under 2007 och 2008 (Arbetsmarknad & Arbetsliv nr ) Anders Kjellberg Sociologiska institutionen Lunds universitet

2 EXPERT FORESIGHT SURVEY An electronic expert survey was carried out by Eurofound in the autumn The questionnaire consisted of 16 questions to obtain respondents opinions about future industrial relations as regards actors, processes, outcomes and general trends in the industrial relations environment.

3 RESPONDENTS OF THE SURVEY Minimum target from each EU27 member state : 2 trade union representatives (4 in Sweden). 2 employer organisations representatives (4 in Sweden). 2 government representatives (2 in Sweden). 2 academic experts (3 in Sweden). In total 346 responses were received from 34 countries (of which 13 responses from Sweden)

4 List of EU15, EU12 and G7 countries EU15 countries (old member states): Austria (AT), Belgium (BE), Germany (DE), Denmark (DK), Greece (EL), Spain (ES), Finland (FI), France (FR), Ireland (IE), Italy (IT), Luxembourg (LU), Netherlands (NL), Portugal (PT), Sweden (SE) and United Kingdom (UK). EU12 countries (new member states): Bulgaria (BG), Czech Republic (CZ), Estonia (EE), Cyprus (CY), Hungary (HU), Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT), Malta (MT), Poland (PL), Romania (RO), Slovenia (SI) and Slovakia (SK). Global 7 (G7) countries: Australia (AUS), Brazil (BRZ), China (CHI), India (IND), Japan (JAP), South Africa (SAF) and the USA.

5 FORESIGHT ON WORKING LIFE TRENDS : SWEDEN Aspect of working life environment Liberalism in economic policy Decrease Remain the same 53.8 Individualism 30.8 Flexibility in working life 7.7 Job security Social security Self-employment 30.8 Atypical employment Increase Not applicable 15.4

6 FORESIGHT ON WORKING LIFE TRENDS : SWEDEN Aspect of working life environment Decrease Remain the same Increase Inequality in incomes Equal opportunities in labour market Wage gap between men and women Public support to workers trade unions Public support to employer organisations European Commissions role as regulator of working life aspects Not applicable

7 NB! Observe that the category remain the same is not included in the following diagrams, but just increase and decrease.

8 FORESIGHT ON LIBERALISM PT EL BE IT ES LU FI AT NL DE FR SE DK IE UK BG RO CY PL MT LT LV CZ SI HU SK EE CHI IND JAP USA SAF AUS BRZ % of responses Increase Decrease

9 FORESIGHT ON INDIVIDUALISM IT FI AT ES DE IE PT BE SE EL DK LU NL FR UK CY LV SI PL BG CZ MT LT HU SK EE RO CHI IND SAF JAP BRZ AUS USA % of responses Increase Decrease

10 FORESIGHT ON FLEXIBILITY Increase Decrease 20 0 AT BE FR LU PT UK EL FI SE ES DK DE IT NL IE CZ SK EE LT RO LV SI PL BG CY MT HU AU IND JAP SAF US BRZ CHI -20 % of responses

11 FORESIGHT ON JOB SECURITY DE NL PT BE SE AT EL FI LU FR UK IE ES DK IT BG CY EE MT SI PL CZ SK HU RO LV LT IND JAP US SAF BR CHI AU -20 Decrease Increase % of responses

12 FORESIGHT ON INCOME INEQUALITY Increase Decrease % of responses FR UK SE FI DE PT EL NL ES IE DK BE AT IT LU LV SK SI BG HU PL MT LT CY CZ EE RO CHI AUS IND JAP USA SAF BRZ

13 FORESIGHT ON WAGE GAP BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN NL FR IT IE BE LU SE DE AT DK ES PT UK EL FI CY EE RO SI SK BG MT PL LT CZ LV HU BRZ IND JAP USA AUS CHI SAF -20 Decrease Increase % of responses

14 FORESIGHT ON EUROPEAN COMMISSIONS ROLE Increase Decrease 0 LU FR EL IT BE DE IE PT SE FI DK ES AT UK NL HU BG CY RO MT LT PL EE CZ LV SK SI CHI SAF US BRZ IND % of responses

15 TRADE UNION DENSITY 2004 AND 2025 IN SWEDEN (facklig organisationsgrad) * 2004 including full-time students working part-time ** excluding full-time students working part-time Average Median Minimum Maximum 2025 compared to * 79** 61 63**

16 TRADE UNION DENSITY 2004 AND DK FI SE BE LU IT AT IE UK DE ES EL NL PT FR CY MT SI LT CZ LV RO SK EE BG PL HU CHI SAF* AUS BRZ** JAP USA IND*** Trade union density (%)

17 EXPECTED CHANGES IN TRADE UNION DENSITY COMPARED TO Change in percentage points, 2025 compared to 2004 SE DK IE LU FI NL AT BE UK PT EL IT DE FR ES MT CY SI HU SK RO BG PL EE CZ LV LT CHI JAP USA AUS BRZ SAF IND

18 Facklig organisationsgrad i 18 länder Sverige 78 / Finland Danmark Belgien Norge Irland / Österrike Italien Kanada Storbritannien Australien Tyskland / Nederländ Japan Spanien Polen USA Frankrike Källa: Anders Kjellberg Industrial Relations Foresight 2025 for Sweden (Lund 2009) s 11

19 Facklig organisationsgrad i Sverige Ålder Exkl. heltidsstuderande som arbetar vid sidan om studierna Källa: Anders Kjellberg Det fackliga medlemsraset under 2007 och 2008 Arbetsmarknad & Arbetsliv nr

20 Facklig organisationsgrad i Sverige Källa: Anders Kjellberg Arbetsmarknad & Arbetsliv nr

21 Orsaker till fallande facklig organisationsgrad på lång sikt (1) Attitydförändring: en mer kritiskt prövande inställning till fackligt medlemskap än tidigare (kostnaden vägs mot nyttan) Bristande kunskaper hos ungdomar om vad en fackförening eller ett kollektivavtal är Sjunkande andel sysselsatta inom industri och offentlig sektor ökande andel i privata tjänstenäringar Arbetsstyrkans uppsplittring genom outsourcing (tillväxt av företagsnära tjänster mm), inhyrning (bemanningsföretag), fast och tidsbegränsat anställda, anlitande av konsulter, arbete på udda arbetstider mm

22 Orsaker till fallande facklig organisationsgrad på lång sikt (2) Nya branscher och företag till följd av avregleringar och privatiseringar med en inte sällan negativ inställning till fack och kollektivavtal från arbetsgivarens sida samt bristande fackliga traditioner Snål bemanning (lean production) till följd av skärpt konkurrens (inkl. ökad press på underleverantörer) och besparings- och effektiviseringskrav i offentlig sektor Fackklubbarnas minskade täckningsgrad till följd av bl a ovanstående faktorer. På arbetsplatser utan fack saknas direktkontakt med medlemmarna och inte så mycket av resultat finns att uppvisa

23 Det fackliga medlemsraset 2007 och 2008 Huvudförklaring: förändringarna av a-kassans finansiering, närmare bestämt den kraftigt höjda och senare tilltagande differentieringen av a-kasseavgiften 2007 och början av 2008: högkonjunktur med följd att somliga anser sig klara sig bra utan fackets hjälp Kort sagt: ökad kostnad (medlemskap i a-kassa + fack) men oförändrad nytta (kan framstå som mindre under högkonjunkturen)

24 Förändring av antalet fackmedlemmar i Sverige under åren 2006, 2007 och 2008 Fackmedlemmar Summa LO -1% -8% -4% -11% TCO -1% -5% -2% -7% Saco +1% -1% +2% +1% Övriga -1% -4% +4% 0% Samtliga -1% -6% -2% -8%

25 Medlemsutveckling i fackliga a-kassor i Sverige under åren 2006, 2007 och 2008 Medl. i fackliga a-kassor Summa LO -11% -3% -14% TCO -11% -2% -13% AEA -5% +3% -2% Övriga -11% -1% -12% Samtliga -1% -10% -2% -11%

26 Avgifter till ett urval fackliga a-kassor (avser fackmedlemmar) 31/12 1/1 1/10 31/ / Lärarnas (TCO) Akademikernas AEA Finans&Försäkr (TCO) ST (TCO) SKTF (TCO) Elektrikerna (LO) HTF (TCO)/Unionen Sif (TCO)/Unionen Pappers (LO) /forts./

27 Avgifter till ett urval fackliga a-kassor /forts/ 31/12 1/1 1/10 31/ / Kommunal (LO) * +115 Livs (LO) SEKO (LO) Transport (LO) Fastighets (LO) Handels (LO) IF Metall (LO) Musiker (LO) Teater (TCO) Byggnads (LO) Grafiska (LO) / GS Skogsträ (LO) / GS Hotell & Rest (LO) * Avgiften sänktes med 55 kr (från 270 krtill 215 kr) 1/

28 A-kasseavgifter september (och oktober) 2009 för civilingenjör i Sveriges Ingenjörer (Saco), industritjänsteman i Unionen (TCO) och IF- Metallare (LO)

29 Density of employers associations in Sweden Private Public All SAF/SN* Note: Share of employees (blue-collar + white-collar workers) employed by employers affiliated to employers organisations at the end of each year. * Share of private sector employees Source: Anders Kjellberg Industrial Relations Foresight 2025 for Sweden (Lund 2009) p. 25

30 Facklig organisationsgrad i Sverige Sektor Privat * Offentlig Alla * Jämför arbetsgivarnas 80% (se föregående tabell) Källa: Anders Kjellberg Det fackliga medlemsraset under 2007 och 2008 Arbetsmarknad & Arbetsliv nr

31 COLLECTIVE BARGAINING COVERAGE RATE 2004 AND 2025: SWEDEN Average Median Minimum Maximum 2025 compared to

32 COLLECTIVE BARGAINING COVERAGE RATE AND BE AT FR SE DK PT FI ES IT NL** EL LU DE IE* UK SI CY RO* MT CZ HU SK PL LV LT BG* EE BRZ* AUS CHI SAF* USA JAP IND Collective bargaining coverage rate (%)

33 FORESIGHT ON COLLECTIVE BARGAINING COVERAGE RATES COMPARED TO Change in percentage points, 2005 compared to 2004 PT FI SE ES DE DK AT EL BE IT FR NL UK LU SI MT CY SK HU PL CZ EE LV LT AUS JAP USA IND CHI

34 Share of employees (%) in Sweden covered by collective agreements Foresight Sector Private (77) Public All Source: Anders Kjellberg Industrial Relations Foresight 2025 for Sweden (Lund 2009) p. 26

35 FORESIGHT ON COLLECTIVE BARGAINING LEVELS IN 2025: SWEDEN Bargaining level Decrease Remain the same Increase Not applicable International level National level (bipartite) Sector/branch level Enterprise level

36 Working conditions Wages Minimum wages Working time Foresight on main way of regulation in 2025 (Sweden) Year Individual contracts Workplace/ enterprise level collective agreements Sectoral/ industry level collective agreements National level collective agreements National legislation International agreements (incl. EU directives)

37 Foresight on dominant level of collective bargaining in 2025 (Sweden) National level Sector/ branch level State/ regional level Enterprise level No collective agreements

38 FORESIGHT ON DOMINANT COLLECTIVE BARGAINING LEVEL GOVERNMENT TRADE UNIONS EMPLOYERS FI, IE SI National level National level IE AT, BE, DK, DE*, EL, IT, LU, NL, PT, ES, SE, FR** CY, SK, BRZ*, SAF** Sectoral level Sectoral level AT, BE, DE, DK, ES, FI, FR, IT, NL, PT, SE, BG EE, LT, SI BRZ, SAF, USA UK UK, EL CZ, EE, HU, LV, LT, MT, PL, AUS, CHI, IND, JAP, USA Company level Company level CZ, CY, HU, MT, PL, RO, SK AUS, CHI, IND, JAP

39 FORESIGHT ON IMPACTS OF SOCIAL PARTNERS AT THE DIFFERENT NEGOTIATIONS LEVELS IN 2025: SWEDEN Negotiation level Decrease Remain the same International level (e.g. European Union level) Increase Trade unions Employer organisations National level Trade unions Employer organisations No answer Government

40 FORESIGHT ON IMPACTS OF SOCIAL PARTNERS AT THE DIFFERENT NEGOTIATIONS LEVELS IN 2025: SWEDEN Negotiation level Sector/branch level Decrease Remain the same Increase Trade unions Employer organisations No answer Government Enterprise level Trade unions Employer organisations

41 FORESIGHT ON GOVERNMENT S ROLE AS LEGISLATOR IN INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS IN 2025: SWEDEN Working conditions Decrease Remain the same Increase Not applicable Wages Minimum wages Working time No answer Flexible employment arrangement (telework, temporary agency work etc.) Health and safety issues

42 Skrifter Anders Kjellberg 2009 (de båda sistnämnda nedladdningsbara från min hemsida) Det fackliga medlemsraset i Sverige under 2007 och 2008 Arbetsmarknad & Arbetsliv nr sid "The Swedish Model of Industrial Relations: Self-Regulation and Combined Centralisation-Decentralisation" i Craig Phelan (red) Trade Unionism since 1945: Towards a Global History Volume 1. Oxford: Peter Lang. The Swedish Ghent system and trade unions under pressure Transfer nr (under publicering) Industrial Relations Foresight 2025: Sweden Compared to EU15, EU 12 and Global 7 countries. Department of Sociology, Lund University. Industrial Relations Foresight 2025 for Sweden: Presentation of Results and Comments. Department of Sociology, Lund University.

43 Kontaktuppgifter Anders Kjellberg Sociologiska institutionen Box Lund Tel: E-post: Hemsida: 93