Mikael Dahlgren, Forskningsdirektör, Framtidens energisystem (eller tidigare?) Perspektiv från Corporate Research

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1 Mikael Dahlgren, Forskningsdirektör, Framtidens energisystem (eller tidigare?) Perspektiv från Corporate Research

2 Today s energy challenge Cut link between growth, energy use and emissions Meeting these challenges requires the world to: Reduce the correlation between economic growth and energy use Reduce the correlation between energy use and emissions Energy efficiency Renewable sources of energy

3 Energy consumption and Economic growth Has gone hand in hand but is decoupling November 19, 2014 Slide 3

4 Existing European nuclear power Becoming too expensive? November 19, 2014 Slide 4

5 PV comes down fast in price Much smaller economy of scale than traditional thermal power As a whole, the United States is forecasted to Slide 5 install nearly 6 gigawatts of solar in GTM Research November 19, 2014

6 The world is still very dependent on fossil fuels for electricity generation November 19, 2014 Slide 6

7 TWh Annual increase of Electric demand and Renewable production 1400,0 Solar and wind now produce the average global annual increase 1200,0 1000,0 800,0 600,0 400,0 Electrical consumption change Wind+Solar Linear (Electrical consumption change) 200,0 0,0-200,0-400,0 Year Source: BP-Statistical_Review_of_world_energy_2014 November 19, 2014 Slide 7

8 Utilities of the Future A Global Trend: Nearer to the Customer Becoming customer centric offers higher-margin performance and competitive advantage More empowered Customer Willing to pay for app-like service Higher markets volatility Higher info exposure of Customers Shorter Technologies life-cycles Month DD, Year Slide 8

9 Utilities of the Future 100% Renewables Microgrids 100% Renewables Centralized Strategic and Technical Limits Renewable political objectives November ABB 19, 2014 Slide 9

10 Four cornerstones for the future Energy Efficiency Energy [Fresh] Water Natural resources The digital transition Resource Efficiency Land Urbanization November 19, 2014 Slide 10

11 Vart är kraftsystemet på väg? Brist på investeringar Effektflöden ändrar riktning November 19, 2014 Slide 11

12 The 5:th Clean Energy Ministerial, May 2014 The 10 breakthrough energy technologies Ministers etc representing: Republic of Korea United States Australia Brazil Canada China Denmark EU Finland France Germany India Indonesia Italy Japan Mexico Norway Russia South Africa Sweden United Arab Emirates United Kingdom Saudi Arabia HVDC More reliable renewable energy will be provided to various parts of the world through a more efficient, reliable and safer system. Advanced Energy Storage Systems Breakthroughs in energy storage systems will create more value through electro mobility and less fluctuation of renewable energy Advanced biofuels technology for transport It will provide a way of shifting to low carbon, non-petroleum fuels and contributing to decarbonize the transport sector Microgrid It will help us to transform the current energy system to a sustainable system by enabling energy reliability and security Utilization of CO2 It will enhance the improvements and cost reductions of carbon capture technology that is the fundamental solution for greenhouse gas reduction Ultra-efficient solar power Achieving ultra high efficiency in solar designs and making modules more efficient will greatly reduce the cost of solar power Advanced offshore wind turbine technology Breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine technology will reduce the levelized cost of electricity and will improve the reliability of offshore wind power system Hybrid renewable energy system It will provide a way to maximize the use of renewables and to create market opportunities for emerging technologies before they are mature Internet of Things energy management system The number of wirelessly connected sensing devices will allow us to gather big data on energy consumption and will provide intelligent way for energy savings Advanced thermal storage Breakthroughs in thermal storage system will provide an efficient and cost effective way to store thermal energy which is involved in over 90% of all energy technologies November 19, 2014 Slide 12

13 The 5:th Clean Energy Ministerial, May 2014 The 10 breakthrough energy technologies HVDC More reliable renewable energy will be provided to various parts of the world through a more efficient, reliable and safer system. Advanced Energy Storage Systems Breakthroughs in energy storage systems will create more value through electro mobility and less fluctuation of renewable energy Advanced biofuels technology for transport Microgrid It will provide a way of shifting to low carbon, non-petroleum fuels and contributing to decarbonize the transport sector It will help us to transform the current energy system to a sustainable system by enabling energy reliability and security Utilization of CO2 It will enhance the improvements and cost reductions of carbon capture technology that is the fundamental solution for greenhouse gas reduction Ultra-efficient solar power Achieving ultra high efficiency in solar designs and making modules more efficient will greatly reduce the cost of solar power Advanced offshore wind turbine technology Breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine technology will reduce the levelized cost of electricity and will improve the reliability of offshore wind power system Hybrid renewable energy system It will provide a way to maximize the use of renewables and to create market opportunities for emerging technologies before they are mature Internet of Things energy management system The number of wirelessly connected sensing devices will allow us to gather big data on energy consumption and will provide intelligent way for energy savings Advanced thermal storage Breakthroughs in thermal storage system will provide an efficient and cost effective way to store thermal energy which is involved in over 90% of all energy technologies November 19, 2014 Slide 13

14 Where are the potential for Offshore wind? Wind, shallow water, and close to population 1/3 can produce 1000 TWh annually EU 28 Need Month DD, Year Slide 14

15 DC breaker for future HVDC systems DC interruption DC GRID DC Breaker There are several possible approaches for achieving DC interruption. Two conceptually different approaches are using semi-conductors or creating a current zero crossing, which does not naturally occur in DC. A zero crossing may for instance be achieved by injection of an oscillating current, which added to the DC fault current causes a current zero and interruption. Two different approaches are presented in the next slides, the hybrid and the purley mechanical. These are currently under investigation/development. November 19, 2014 Slide 15

16 HVDC breaker challenge Fast interruption and isolation of faults Breaker operation time November 19, 2014 Slide 16

17 Transmission kapacitet (MW) Kraft elektronik Nyckel teknologi Mer kraft och lägre förluster 6,000 4,000 2,000 HVDC Classic Spänning kv HVDC Light Förluster % Kapacitet upp 6 gånger sedan 2000; Voltage upp från +/- 100kV till +/- 1100kV sen Kapacitet upp 20 gånger; förluster ner 3% till <1% per omriktar station sen Xiangjiaba Shanghai: ± 800 kv UHVDC. Världens mest kraftfulla länk I drift. November 19, 2014 Slide 17 BorWin: 400 MW, 200km sub sea & undergr. Världens mest avlägsna offshore vindkraftpark.

18 ABB lanserar 525 kv DC-kabel Driftsspänning från 320 kv till 525 kv Effekt från ~1,5 till ~2,6 GW (cu) Distans > 1500 km * Förluster < 5% * * - beroende på design OKG totalt 2,569 GW November 19, 2014 Slide 18

19 The 5:th Clean Energy Ministerial, May 2014 The 10 breakthrough energy technologies HVDC More reliable renewable energy will be provided to various parts of the world through a more efficient, reliable and safer system. Advanced Energy Storage Systems Breakthroughs in energy storage systems will create more value through electro mobility and less fluctuation of renewable energy Advanced biofuels technology for transport Microgrid It will provide a way of shifting to low carbon, non-petroleum fuels and contributing to decarbonize the transport sector It will help us to transform the current energy system to a sustainable system by enabling energy reliability and security Utilization of CO2 It will enhance the improvements and cost reductions of carbon capture technology that is the fundamental solution for greenhouse gas reduction Ultra-efficient solar power Achieving ultra high efficiency in solar designs and making modules more efficient will greatly reduce the cost of solar power Advanced offshore wind turbine technology Breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine technology will reduce the levelized cost of electricity and will improve the reliability of offshore wind power system Hybrid renewable energy system It will provide a way to maximize the use of renewables and to create market opportunities for emerging technologies before they are mature Internet of Things energy management system The number of wirelessly connected sensing devices will allow us to gather big data on energy consumption and will provide intelligent way for energy savings Advanced thermal storage Breakthroughs in thermal storage system will provide an efficient and cost effective way to store thermal energy which is involved in over 90% of all energy technologies November 19, 2014 Slide 19

20 Nät anslutet energi lager (2014) Pumped Hydro Compressed Air Energy Storage, 440 MW Sodium-Sulfur Battery, 320 MW MW Over 99% of total storage capacity Lithium Ion Battery, 290 MW Lead Acid Battery, 80 MW Flywheels, 40 MW Redox Flow Battery, 13 MW ABB Corporate Research Slide 20 Source: Fraunhofer Institute, EPRI, DOE Global Energy Storage Database, Pr. Nat. Sci. 19 (Chen et.al), ABB, BNEF, 2014

21 Energi lager applikationer Utility T&D applications = = ESS Transportation EV/PHEV: kwp, 2h Buses: 300 kwp, 2h ESS Marine applications Ferries (full electric and hybrid) 1-10 MW, 1-2h ESS 15 kv, 16⅓ Hz ABB Corporate Research Slide 21 ESS Way-side: 1-10 MW, 30 sec On board: 1-10 MW, 5 min ESS O&G platforms: 1-10 MW, 30 sec ESS

22 ENVILINE Bättre verkningsgrad och tillförlitlighet Omriktare Kontrollpanel Transformator Kylning och värmehantering Ställverk (AC) Ställverk (DC) Automatiskt jordninssystem Energilager Energiåtervinning July 16, 2013 Slide 1 3BHS E02 RevA

23 The 5:th Clean Energy Ministerial, May 2014 The 10 breakthrough energy technologies HVDC More reliable renewable energy will be provided to various parts of the world through a more efficient, reliable and safer system. Advanced Energy Storage Systems Breakthroughs in energy storage systems will create more value through electro mobility and less fluctuation of renewable energy Advanced biofuels technology for transport Microgrid It will provide a way of shifting to low carbon, non-petroleum fuels and contributing to decarbonize the transport sector It will help us to transform the current energy system to a sustainable system by enabling energy reliability and security Utilization of CO2 It will enhance the improvements and cost reductions of carbon capture technology that is the fundamental solution for greenhouse gas reduction Ultra-efficient solar power Achieving ultra high efficiency in solar designs and making modules more efficient will greatly reduce the cost of solar power Advanced offshore wind turbine technology Breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine technology will reduce the levelized cost of electricity and will improve the reliability of offshore wind power system Hybrid renewable energy system It will provide a way to maximize the use of renewables and to create market opportunities for emerging technologies before they are mature Internet of Things energy management system The number of wirelessly connected sensing devices will allow us to gather big data on energy consumption and will provide intelligent way for energy savings Advanced thermal storage Breakthroughs in thermal storage system will provide an efficient and cost effective way to store thermal energy which is involved in over 90% of all energy technologies November 19, 2014 Slide 23

24 Internet of Energy Hur Internet of Things och energisystemet växer ihop November 19, 2014 Slide 24

25 En hel del av den nya teknologin som kopplas in är. Småskalig Mobil Intermittent och stokastisk Oberoende av existerande el-marknad November 19, 2014 Slide 25

26 Hur hantera intermittent produktion som sol och vind? Spilla produktion Möjligt alternativ vid enstaka tillfällen Lagra lokalt Kemiska, termiska och gravitationsbaserade lager Transportera mellan överoch under-skottsområden Ett vädersystem är typiskt km Styra behovet, DSM Våra förväntningar och beteenden viktiga Mätningar, styrning och kommunikation viktiga Bättre väderprognoser Sensorer Bättre behovsprognoser Big data Sensorer Month DD, Year Slide 26

27 Funktioner integreras och data kommuniceras Integrering av funktioner Liknande integrering och kommunikationslösningar sker nu också för sensorer Integrering av plattformar November 19, 2014 Slide 27

28 Antalet kopplingar i nätet ökar stadigt Tyskland har ökat från ~10000 inmatningspunkter av el, till mer än 1.2 miljoner Solcells-boomen ställer krav på kommunikation Transactive trading November 19, 2014 Slide 28

29 En del av internet November 19, 2014 Slide 29

30 Fem aktuella trender som påverkar oss Internet of Things Mobility Big Data The hype Analytics Cloud Computing 4 June 2014 Slide 30

31 Fem aktuella trender som påverkar oss Effektiv produktion Mobility Vad kunden verkligen behöver Internet of Things Hög utnyttjandegrad Lägre kostnader och förenklade processer Säkerhet Bättre beslutsunderlag Big Data The hype Analytics Cloud Computing 4 June 2014 Slide 31

32 Låg kostnad sensorer & låg energi kommunikation Sensor(er) och kommunikation för under 100 kronor. Technologi utvecklad av/för bil och mobila industrin EM(Swatch), Bosch, TI.. Etablerade företag Exampel: MEMS Sensor(er) + elektronik inkl. Kommunikation and battery för 5 år för 70 kronor 2.5 * 2.5 mm Cirka. 3% noggranhet ABB November 19, 2014 Slide 32

33 Sensorer, beräkningar och modeller ger fördelar TDWORLD, December %-20% ökning av märkeffekt rapporterat Vi kan bli pro-aktiva! November 19, 2014 Slide 33

34 E.ON SGCC möjliggör proaktivitet Förutser störningar och föreslår lösningar Erfarenhetsåterföring Övervaka och agera Planera (proaktivt) Operatören övervakar realtidsdata Operatören får prognoser för framtiden ABB November 19, 2014 Slide 34

35 Remote operations Framtida kontrollrum Centraler för flera anläggningar Nya funktioner och uppgifter för operatörscentraler och operatörer ute i fält Distanssamarbete och möjlighet till fjärrstyrd manipulation Drar nytta av nya interaktionsteknologier för att levandegöra arbetet 19 november 2014 Slide 35

36 Några intressanta tekniktrender Bärbart Gester Haptisk interaktion Naturliga gränssnitt Ögonföljning Augmented Reality Autonoma flygfarkoster Informationsvisualisering Rumsliga teknologier Mobilitet 3D modellering Gamification Fjärrnärvaro Internet of things 3D skrivare

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