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1 Project summary Title Socioeconomic impacts of major oil spills - prediction methods and scenario studies Client Region Blekinge Baltic Master Daniel Sköld E-post: daniel.skold@regionblekinge.se Björn Martinsson E-post: bjorn.martinsson@skane.se Tel: Project No Project manager Björn Forsman Author Björn Forsman bjorn.forsman@sspa.se Date This document summarizes the methodology applied in a project conducted for the Swedish Rescue Services Agency and for the Interreg project Baltic Master with the aim to predict an estimate potential socioeconomic impact from major marine oil spills. The methodology is based on available regional statistics on the economic value of different business and industry sectors potentially affected by coastal oil pollution and large scale clean up operations. Oil spill scenario cases with tanker accidents off the Swedish coast, have been used for illustrative purposes and for comparative studies. The results highlight the importance of taking also the socioeconomic impact into account, in addition to ecological damage and response cost, in the preparedness planning process. SSPA Sweden AB POSTADRESS BESÖKSADRESS TELEFON TELEFAX E-POST ORG NR BANKKONTO BANKGIRO BOX CHALMERS TVÄRGATA postmaster@sspa.se S-E-BANKEN GÖTEBORG GÖTEBORG STOCKHOLM BRANCH OFFICE: FISKAREGATAN STOCKHOLM postmaster@sspa.se WEB SITE: WEB SITE:

2 Risk-based oil spill preparedness Statistically processed AIS recordings offer new opportunities for accurate spill risk assessment and identification of high risk areas. Ecological impact, response costs and socioeconomic impact are three important aspects of accident consequences to be considered in risk-based preparedness planning and to be balanced versus the probability of accidents in order to reach an acceptable risk level. Traditionally, ecological impact and sensitivity has been the overriding concern in the preparedness planning and response strategies but the result of this project demonstrate that socioeconomic impact and sensitivity aspects also need to be considered carefully in the planning process. To be able to do such considerations, methodologies for impact sensitivity mapping and tools for cost estimations are needed. In this project public available statistics and an accident scenario were used to elaborate a simple method of reasonable accuracy. Socioeconomic impacts and sensitivity Based on a scenario with a tanker collision resulting in a total spill of tonnes of oil outside Göteborg, SSPA conducted a case study, estimating the potential socioeconomic damages and associated costs, for the Swedish Rescue Services Agency. The investigation showed that the socioeconomic damage cost could be expected to be several times higher than the direct response and clean up costs. The situation of course differs from region to region and a model for socioeconomic sensitive mapping by analogy with established ecological sensitivity mapping for prioritisation of preparedness and response efforts was also developed as part of the study. Socioeconomic sensitivity index Previously presented spill cost prediction models usually use the spilled quantity as the basis for total cost estimation. Experience from Swedish spill and clean up cases, however, show that the total damage and clean up costs correlate better with the total length of the polluted shoreline than with the total spill volume. From the first case study it was further concluded that tourism and fishery sectors generally represent the sectors suffering the highest economic losses due to the spill. In order to estimate the possible losses within the tourism sector, regional statistics on the total consumption value minus production costs was compiled from official Tourism Satellite Accounts (TSA) published by Nutek (the Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth) and SCB (Statistics Sweden). The figures were then distributed to county or municipal level by using regional or local accommodation statistics as weighting factor. The derived figures for each county or coastal municipality were then divided by the total coast length to form a local sensitivity index. The index multiplied by a relative damage rate and by the contaminated beach length given by the scenario case, then represents the estimated socioeconomic damage cost in the tourist sector of the community. 2

3 A similar approach was used to formulate a socioeconomic sensitivity index for fishery. In this case the regional indexes are divided in three components; sea fishing, aquaculture and angling by using different statistics published by National Board of Fisheries and SCB. Un-quantified socioeconomic impact A number of additional society sectors that also will suffer impact of major oil spill were also identified but found difficult to quantify in monetary terms. For example public cleansing, garbage collection and other municipal services may be affected, the roads and infrastructure will be exposed to tough wear by waste transport vehicles and the quality of life will be reduced for people living close to the polluted area. Scenario applications for different regions The calculation model has been applied for a number of tanker collision scenarios at various places along the Swedish coast. The results show that the distribution between the three main damage cost components; ecological damage, response cost and socioeconomic impact, vary significantly for different regions but in particular, socioeconomic impact on the tourism sector often represents a major component. For some risk exposed regions the results may suggest that alternative response strategies could be considered. The figures below illustrate some examples of the calculation methods and the model output. Oil spill scenario in the Stockholm region A tanker carrying tonnes of Russian crude collides 7 dygn Three tanks damaged and tonnes released 6 dygn Strong E-SE winds blow oil ashore within four days The Coast Guard recovers tonnes at sea 4 dygn 144 h 168 h 5 dygn 3 days 96 h 120 h 72 h 2 days 48 h 1 day 24 h Utsläpp Remaining tonnes washes ashore 3

4 Distribution Fördelning of so a Scenario Stock The response cost is for the that will last for more than on R Tourism Fishery Respons 4

5 References The reports on socioeconomic impact od major oil spills conducted for the Swedish Rescue Services Agency and for the project Baltic Master: (In Swedish) Socioekonomiska effekter av större oljepåslag Förstudie med scenario, SSPA Rapport , april 2004, för Räddningsverket, SRV KD Socioekonomiska effekter av större oljepåslag Fördjupningsstudie, SSPA Rapport , augusti 2005, för Räddningsverket SRV KD Socioekonomiska effekter av större oljepåslag Scenariostudier för Halland, Skåne, Blekinge och Kalmar län. SSPA Rapport , september 2006, för Räddningsverket SRV KD17822/1/0 och Baltic Master. Socioekonomiska effekter av större oljepåslag Scenariostudier för Stockholmsregionen. SSPA Rapport för Baltic Master, april Other references used in the study: Beräkning av skyddsvärd kust fas II, En länsvis sammanställning av geografisk kustinformation. IVLs Oljejour, U 1879, april 2006, för Räddningsverket. Oljeskyddsinriktningsdokument. Oljeskadeskyddet utmed de svenska kusterna och i de stora insjöarna inför Räddningsverket ITOPF 2005, Oil Tanker Spill Statistics: 2005, The International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation Ltd, IOPC 2005, Annual Report 2005, International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds,iopcfund.org/publications.htm HELCOM 2005, Helsinki Commission, Report on ship accidents in the Baltic Sea area for the year 2004, HELCOM 2006, Helsinki Commission, Report on shipping accidents in the Baltic Sea area for the year 2005, 5

6 NUTEK 2006a, Fakta om svensk turism, mars 2006, Nutek. NUTEK 2006b, Årsbokslut för svensk turistnäring 2005, Satellitkontoberäkningar med effekter på ekonomi och sysselsättning i Sverige Kompletterande information från Nuteks hemsida. NUTEK 2006c, Tabell 2: Beräkning av förädlingsvärde och andel av BNP NUTEK 2006d, Antal gästnätter fördelat på län/nights spent and region/county. SCB NV 41 SM 0605, Statistiska meddelanden NV 41 SM 0605 Inkvarteringsstatistik för Sverige 2005, SCB Topp 30 Nutek 2005, Besöksmål och sevärdheter i Sverige år 2005 med förändringar från 2004, Nutek Besöksmål Nutek 2005, Besöksmål i Sverige Analys av attraktivitet och regional utveckling under åren 1998 till 2003., Turistdelegationen, oktober TEM 2005, Ekonomiska och sysselsättningsmässiga effekter av turismen i Österåkers kommun. Inklusive åren 2002 och Resurs AB. TEM 2006, Ekonomiska och sysselsättningsmässiga effekter av turismen i Vaxholms kommun. Inklusive åren 2002 och Resurs AB. FiV Fakta 2005, Fakta om svenskt fiske - Statistik till och med Fiskeriverket SCB/FiV JO 55 SM 0601, Statistiska meddelanden JO 55 SM 0601, Saltsjöfiskets fångster under Fiskeriverket Finfo 2006:1, Områden av riksintresse för yrkesfisket, ISSN Fiskeriverket FiV SCB JO 60 SM 0601, Statistiska meddelanden JO 60 SM 0601, Vattenruk Fiskeriverket 2006 Finfo 2005:10, Fiske En undersökning om svenskars fritidsfiske. Fiskeriverket i samarbete med SCB, Fakta om besöksnäringen i Stockholm, 2006 års upplaga. Stockholm Visitors Board. 6

7 Kryssningstrafiken till Stockholm Utrednings och statistikkontoret, USK Stockholms stad. 7