Dr Anders Sandberg Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Martin School Oxford University MÄNSKLIGHETEN OCH SINGULARITETEN

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1 Dr Anders Sandberg Future of Humanity Institute Oxford Martin School Oxford University MÄNSKLIGHETEN OCH SINGULARITETEN

2 FUTURE OF HUMANITY INSTITUTE Del av Oxfords Universitets filosofiska fakultet Del av Oxford Martin School Väldigt långsiktiga, big picture questions Ändringar av det mänskliga tillståndet Existentiell risk Hur kan vi tänka bättre om väldigt osäkra saker?

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6 NULÄGET Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel, Broken Limits to Life Expectancy, Science vol May 2002 Yields of main crops and milk, United Kingdom ( ) Alston, Babcock, and Pardey [eds.] (2010)

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8 MOORE S LAW

9 KOOMEY S LAW

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11 TFP series of John Fernald at the San Francisco Fed.

12 (post)mänskligt värde (kapacitet, lycka, välstånd, population ) Uppnår postmänsklig nivå/ singularitet Permanent mellannivå Nuvarande normaltillstånd Dör ut Permanent låg nivå

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16 SINGULARITETEN: PORTEN TILL DET POSTMÄNSKLIGA? What, then, is the singularity? It's a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid, its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed. Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near 2005 What are the consequences of this event? When greater-than-human intelligence drives progress, that progress will be much more rapid. In fact, there seems no reason why progress itself would not involve the we are entering a regime as radically different from our human past as we humans are from the lower animals. From the human point of view, this change will be a throwing away of all the previous rules, perhaps in the blink of an eye, an exponential runaway beyond any hope of control. Vernor Vinge, The coming technological singularity 1993 One conversation centered on the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue. Ulam, S., Tribute to John von Neumann, Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, vol 64, nr 3, part 2, May, 1958, p1-49.

17 SINGULARITETEN SOM RELIGION Rapture of the nerds Inte ett argument mot dess möjlighet Men ett argument mot folks förmåga att resonera väl om den! Robert Stadler, photo of Marc Domage Nuit Blanche 2007

18 BETYDELSER AV TEKNOLOGISK SINGULARITET A. Accelererande förändring B. Självförbättrande teknologi C. Intelligensexplosion D. Superintelligens E. Horisont för förutsägelser F. Fasövergång G. Komplexitetskatastrof H. Historisk inflexionspunkt I. Oändliga framsteg

19 ACCELERATION Teknologi leder till större population, mer humankapital, mer produktivitet, mer uppfinningar Automation gör att maskiner kan delta i processen

20 AUTONOMA FORDON

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23 The future of employment: how susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Carl Benedikt Frey, Michael A. Osborne, 2013

24 REVOLUTIONEN KAN SMYGA SIG PÅ DIG! Vänster: bästa maskin och människa ELO poäng Höger: sannolikhet, baserat på poängen, att en klubb-spelare, stormästare eller Kasparov skulle vinna en match mot den bästa maskinen

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28 Anders Sandberg and Nick Bostrom, Whole Brain Emulation: A Roadmap, Technical Report #2008 3, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University

29 Machine intelligence survey done at Oxford Winter Intelligence conference Blue dots are people s estimates of when human-level AI will have 50% chance of happening.

30 SJÄLVFÖRBÄTTRING/INTELLIGENSEXPLOSION Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion,' and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make. I.J. Good, 1965

31 SUPERINTELLIGENS once the machine thinking method has started, it would not take long to outstrip our feeble powers.... At some stage therefore we should have to expect the machines to take control, in the way that is mentioned in Samuel Butler's Erewhon. Alan Turing, 1951 (A M Turing, Intelligent Machinery, A Heretical Theory, 1951, reprinted Philosophia Mathematica (1996) 4(3): ) Who knows that such machines, when brought to greater perfection, may not think of a plan to remedy all their own defects and then grind out ideas beyond the ken of mortal mind! Thornton, Richard (1847), The Expounder of Primitive Christianity, 4, Ann Arbor, Michigan, p. 281

32 HORISONT FÖR FÖRUTSÄGELSER

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34 INFLEXIONSPUNKT Tillväxtkurvor brukar sakta ned till slut Singulariteten som den snabba övergången från primitivt till maximalt? Logistic extrapolation of Moore s law Air Force Office of Scientific Research, 1953

35 D.J. LEPOIRE: SINGULARITETEN HÄNDE 1925! David J. LePoire. Application of logistic analysis to the history of physics. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72: , 2005

36 FASÖVERGÅNG Emergens av en ny nivå av organisation Selektion för resursanvändning leder till efemäralisering, reducerad friktion, ökad koordination Delsystem blir integrerade i högre ordningens system Spridning av innovationer snabbar på processen, inklusive innovation och koordinering

37 Bettencourt L M A et al. PNAS 2007;104: KOMPLEXITETSKATASTROF Successive cycles of superlinear innovation reset the singularity and postpone instability and subsequent collapse. (a) Schematic representation: vertical dashed lines indicate the sequence of potential singularities. Eq. 4, with N 10 6, predicts t c in decades. (b) The relative population growth rate of New York City over time reveals periods of accelerated (superexponential) growth. Successive shorter periods of super exponential growth appear, separated by brief periods of deceleration. (Inset) t c for each of these periods vs. population at the onset of the cycle. Observations are well fit by Eq. 4, with β = 1.09 (green line).

38 OÄNDLIG UTVECKLING James John Bell, The Futurist 2003

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40 Visible universe (r=14 Gpc) 50% c (1.2 Gpc) 80% c (2.3 Gpc) 99% c (4.1 Gpc) 100% c (4.7 Gpc)

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42 ÄN SEN DÅ? Big history : vi har en lika djup framtid som vi har historia Intelligens+teknologi är explosivt Särskilt när de förstärker varandra Kan gå mycket väl eller dåligt Viktigt med framsyn, även om vi erkänner vår osäkerhet Just nu har vi en hel del manöverutrymme: väl värt att fundera på vart vi vill komma

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